Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, January 29, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1106 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

.UPDATE...
FORECASTS ARE BEING UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 7 FOR
COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH METROPLEX.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG CROSSWINDS BEHIND THE STORMS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A DRY LINE OR PACIFIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED NEAR A LINE FROM KSPS
/WICHITA FALLS/ TO ABILENE /KABI/ TO JUST WEST OF SAN ANGELO
/KSJT/ AT 1630Z. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
ALREADY FORMED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS LINE TO FILL IN
AND AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.

EXPECT THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES 19-20Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 22-23Z. SOUTH WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS
THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 20-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 35 KNOTS BEHIND THE DRY LINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAJOR
CROSSWIND ISSUES AT DFW 22Z-03Z.

THE GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE EVENING...BUT THE SUSTAINED
WESTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY.

58

&&

.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 LATE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF
CONVECTION. THIS LINE IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF TRYING TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG A DRYLINE...WHICH AT 10 AM WAS LOCATED NEAR
THE WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY...JUST NOSING EAST TO YOUNG COUNTY.
OVERALL...THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE SLOWED JUST A BIT SO WILL BE
UPDATING THE GRIDS TO KEEP POPS GOING FOR A FEW EXTRA HOURS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME...AND FUTURE UPDATES TO THE
FORECASTS WILL LIKELY BE DONE TO INCLUDE WATCH INFORMATION IF/WHEN
THEY ARE ISSUED. WE WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING THE SPECIFICS OF THE
ANTICIPATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHORTLY IN AN AWU/MESOSCALE
WEATHER UPDATE.

THE FIRE THREAT AND WIND ADVISORY WILL STILL BE IN EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS...GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35/35 WEST.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013/
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLE...THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
WE EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THROUGH SUNRISE AS THEY
APPROACH NORTH TEXAS. STORMS SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHWEST ZONES
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE STEADILY
EASTWARD WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST. WE
EXPECT ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE
SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD
BEING DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITING
FACTOR. WE EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE REGION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGER RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE
INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR WILL ALL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STORM GROWTH.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. THEREFORE...WE WILL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALONG
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE WEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY ELEVATED TO
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SO WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING. THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND DECREASE
A BIT...BUT REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE AND LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY...SO WE WILL LEAVE
POPS AT 10 PERCENT FOR NOW.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND BRING A BRIEF WARMING TREND. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  41  57  35  69 /  80  20   5   0   0
WACO, TX              83  39  60  28  69 /  60  20   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             78  42  55  33  63 /  80  40   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            80  40  56  29  67 /  70  10   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          77  43  55  29  66 /  80  20   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            80  42  57  36  67 /  80  20   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  43  57  31  66 /  80  30   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         80  41  59  33  65 /  80  30   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            81  45  62  30  67 /  50  20   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  36  58  28  69 /  70  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-100>102-
115>117-129>132-141>143.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092-100>103-
115>118-129>133-141>145-156>159.

&&

58/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
400 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH MIDDAY AND QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO A SQUALL LINE
AS IT MOVES EAST BY THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...STRONG WEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT/DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN A HIGH
FIRE WEATHER DANGER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. A RED
FLAG WARNING AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS TODAY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35 THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1103 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

TXZ115-291730-
STEPHENS TX-
1103 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN STEPHENS COUNTY

AT 1103 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRECKENRIDGE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3257 9910 3273 9910 3285 9889 3252 9885
      3252 9910 3252 9911 3257 9911
TIME...MOT...LOC 1703Z 241DEG 17KT 3263 9909

HAMPSHIRE