A vigorous lee side low pressure system developed across southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico during the afternoon on February 9th. This created a strong surface pressure gradient across the western Texas Panhandle.
Every event with a place to put it; 8 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AMA wrote it up.
A vigorous lee side low pressure system developed across southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico during the afternoon on February 9th. This created a strong surface pressure gradient across the western Texas Panhandle. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph were common across the Panhandle. However, strong mid layer winds of 60 to 70 mph mixed to the surface to produce 58 to 63 mph wind gusts at Dalhart (Hartley and Dallam County) Bootleg (Deaf Smith County), and Slapout (Deaf Smith County). Also sustained winds of 42 to 44 mph were reported at Dalhart (Dallam and Hartley County), Bootleg (Deaf Smith County), and Adrian (Oldham County) between 3 PM and 6 PM CST. The surface low moved off the southern Rockies and into southwestern Kansas, and a surface cold front swept across the Texas Panhandles. The stabilization of the near surface atmosphere provided by the cooler post-frontal airmass, and a weakening of the surface pressure gradient brought an end to high wind conditions for the Texas Panhandle by 7 PM CST.
The following is a list of the highest wind gusts across the Texas Panhandle: West Texas Mesonet site 11 miles west-northwest of Bootleg (Deaf Smith County) 60 mph, West Texas Mesonet site at Slapout (Deaf Smith County) 63 mph, NWS ASOS at Dalhart (Dallam and Hartley County) 58 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Amarillo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 9, 1:56 PM CST, 8 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
156 PM CST SAT FEB 9 2013
.MESOSCALE UPDATE DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED
IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
THE SURFACE LOW. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW.
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED
NORTHWEST INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND
APPROACHING LIFT COULD SET THE STAGE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT, THE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO VERY
HIGH VALUES OF WIND SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION
OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A
LOW-END CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, OUR CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
WEATHER IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING.
TIMING: THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 9 PM. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 4:30 PM AND 9 PM. WE SHOULD NOTE
THAT OUR CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING HAS DECREASED TODAY
AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE INDICATED SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING
ALOFT.
LOCATION: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE JUST EAST OF A GUYMON
TO CLAUDE LINE. SIGNALS FROM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY BEGIN JUST EAST OF CLAUDE AND/OR JUST EAST
OF GUYMON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND SLOWLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING, THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE.
HAZARDS: THE PRIMARY HAZARDS CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A CLAUDE TO
SPEARMAN TO LIPSCOMB LINE. ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT IS NON-ZERO,
THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A
CLAUDE TO PAMPA TO WELLINGTON LINE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM. HOWEVER,
WE STRESS THAT THIS IS A VERY MARGINAL THREAT AT BEST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS: MOST FOLKS WILL REMAIN DRY, BUT THE LOCATIONS THAT
ARE IMPACTED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD LOCALLY RECEIVE UP TO ONE
HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 PM CST SAT FEB 9 2013/
UPDATE...
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND EXPANDED
THE WIND ADVISORY EASTWARD A ROW OF A COUNTIES. ALSO TRIMMED POPS
EASTWARD AND LOWERED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE THE WESTERN ROW OF COUNTIES TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE
LOCATIONS WILL MIX BETWEEN 650-550 MB AS A 45-50 KT 700 MB AND A
90-100 KT 500 MB SPEED MAX, RESPECTIVELY, MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. COULD
SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH IN THESE LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
4 PM AND 7 PM. ALSO, WE SHIFTED THE WIND ADVISORY EASTWARD A ROW OF
COUNTIES AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH
WILL BE MET, MAINLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM. KEPT AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
WHERE THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT AND ADDED PATCHY BLOWING
DUST SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST.
THE OTHER CHANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD WAS TO LOWER POPS AND
TRIM THEM TO INCLUDE LOCATIONS EAST OF A GUYMON TO CLAUDE LINE. WE
BASED THIS ON HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS OF THE TEXAS TECH WRF, NORMAN NWS
WRF, AND 12Z SPC WRF.
***CHECK BACK SHORTLY FOR A MESOSCALE AFD DETAILING THE PROSPECTS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.***
GARCIA/JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 AM CST SAT FEB 9 2013/
AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
OUTSIDE OF MVFR BLDU RESTRICTIONS AT KDHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL ALL TERMINALS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT VSBYS
COULD DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KDHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION.
VERY STRONG SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z-01Z. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE W/WNW
BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z SUNDAY. AWW REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAMA FROM 20Z-
0130Z, AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT TSRA COULD IMPACT KGUY OR KAMA, BUT WE
THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THESE TERMINALS.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST SAT FEB 9 2013/
AVIATION...
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN. 11Z UPPER AIR RELEASE
REVEALS 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE AT THIS TIME OVER KAMA. WILL
INCLUDE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMARK THROUGH 15Z AT KAMA. BY 15Z...
MIXING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...WITH
GUSTINESS COMMENCING. BY 20Z...GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. AVIATION WEATHER WARNING FOR GUSTS
EXCEEDING 40 KT REMAINS IN EFFECT...AND WILL BE EXTENDED IN TIME TO
BE VALID UNTIL 0130Z SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHER MAJOR ITEM OF CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BELIEVE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 23Z TO 00Z NEAR A KGUY TO JUST EAST
OF KAMA LINE. AS SUCH...HAVE OMITTED MENTION OF THUNDER AT KAMA AND
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS REMARK AT KGUY. NO NON-VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED.
APART FROM POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST...VFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. ALL
DEVELOPMENTS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED
IF NECESSARY.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST SAT FEB 9 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD IS AT HAND...WITH THE ATTENTION OF THIS
UPDATE CONCENTRATED ON EXPECTED HAZARDS TODAY AND LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE VERY DYNAMICAL UPPER AIR LOW NOW APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS
WILL EJECT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES PLAINS TODAY...BRINGING SEVERAL
WEATHER HAZARDS TO THE PANHANDLES...INCLUDING PROSPECTS FOR AN ANOMALOUS
COOL SEASON SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE.
AS HEIGHT/PRESSURE FALLS SPILL EAST OF THE ROCKIES LATER TODAY...
CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL SUPPORT A STRONG REACTION IN
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. MOIST ADVECTION ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL SPREAD 40+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF A DEVELOPING DRYLINE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST INSTABILITY GIVEN
SEASONABLY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT A
CAPPING INVERSION IS NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS EAST...ALL
MODELS INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES AND SURGE STORMS EASTWARD ALONG THE MERGING
DRYLINE AND PACIFIC FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...POSSIBLY
IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE...AS CONVECTION SWEEPS EASTWARD. GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ARE OF
MAIN CONCERN. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALSO WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A
LOW-END SEVERE HAIL THREAT...LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE RELATIVELY
SHALLOW NATURE OF THE INSTABILITY/LOW TOPPED STORMS. OF NOTE IS THE
PROGGED CURVATURE OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND RELATIVELY LOW LCL/S.
THIS MAY ACTUALLY PROMOTE A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES
WITHIN A QLSC OR IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN BE MAINTAINED. HAVE MAINTAINED
LIKELY /60 PERCENT/ POPS OVER THE EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
IN THE DRY SECTOR WEST OF THE PASSING FRONT/DRYLINE...STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS ARE OF CONCERN. SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS INTENSE WIND FIELDS EJECT
EASTWARD. THIS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN IS LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH/LOW
IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND EJECT EASTWARD. MOST MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT A THREAT OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IMPACT THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
THE HOST OF MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT...THE NAM HAS SHOWN
A TREND TO DEPICT A RELATIVELY DRY APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST INCREASING SNOW CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY AS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...ECMWF...CMC...AND THE SREF. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE ADDITIONALLY SUGGESTS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY
OF TWO INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS HAVE INCREASED
GRIDDED POPS TO 40 PERCENT DURING THE 06-18Z TUESDAY TIMEFRAME AND
CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
BEYOND MID WEEK...ATTENTION WILL BEGIN TO FOCUS ON A COLD 1040+ MB
SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS. SOME
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW PROSPECTS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
WAKE OF ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRIDAY. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES
DOWN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE GRIDDED
POPS.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.
TODAY/S FIRE WEATHER IS COMPLEX...AS ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. WHILE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL BE STRONG...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE NON-CRITICAL RANGE OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT. THE
MESOSCALE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT OBSERVED WITH PAST FIRE EVENTS...
WITH AN AMPLIFIED THERMAL RIDGE BENEATH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT.
HOWEVER...INPUT FROM TFS FIRE ANALYSTS SUGGEST THAT ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENTS AROUND 50 AND LARGELY NORMAL FUEL MOISTURES MAY SUPPORT AN
INCREASE OF SMALL FIRE STARTS GIVEN EXPECTED COMBINATIONS OF HUMIDITY
AND WIND...BUT THAT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOW.
ELEVATED CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...HANSFORD...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...
POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM.
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TEXAS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CIMARRON.
&&
99/99HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1226 PM CST SAT FEB 9 2013 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-100100- CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB- HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON- GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH- 1226 PM CST SAT FEB 9 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF A GUYMON TO CLAUDE LINE AND QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD TO IMPACT THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF A QUARTER. A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO EXIST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM CST. VERY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AND CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES. THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. IN ADDITION...ELEVATED OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS AGAIN EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR ELEVATED OR BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. JACKSON
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
From the West Texas Mesonet at Bootleg.
From the West Texas Mesonet at Bootleg.
From the West Texas Mesonet site at Bootleg.
From the West Texas Mesonet at Bootleg.
West Texas Mesonet at Slapout.
Sustained winds of 42 mph were estimated from 5 PM CST to 6 PM CST at Adrian.
Sustained winds measure by the Dalhart ASOS.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, February 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 435178, 435179, 435900, 435180, 435182, 435898, 435901, 435176.