Drought in Texas, February 5 to 28, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1054 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE CURRENTLY EXCEPT FOR SMALL
AREA OF CIRRUS TO THE NW. LATEST DATA SHOWS CAPPING INVERSION AT
2000 FEET...WITH DIRER AIR ALOFT. WINDS HAVE WEAKENED BELOW
10KTS...SO THESE WILL LIKELY COMBINE FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATER
THIS EVENING. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AROUND
SUNRISE...WITH A CONTINUED TIME. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
MIDMORNING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES ROUGHLY FROM SARITA TO MCALLEN...
CAUSING NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...CALM WINDS IN MCALLEN...AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
HARLINGEN AND BROWNSVILLE. THIS SETUP IS REINFORCED BY THE CURRENT
FRAME OF THE GFS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE TO LIFR
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FORMATION OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. VFR WILL
RETURN BEGINNING AROUND MID-MORNING TOMORROW DUE TO INCREASED
WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 144 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...ZONAL FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH AND ISOLATED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE GULF COAST. EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE CWA...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
WITH A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING CALM
EARLY TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE CONTENT AND DEW POINT RISING WILL ALLOW FOR A BROADER
AREA OF FOG THAT COVERS MOST OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
80S WITH SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
COMING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT. LEFT INHERITED 20 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND IT CONTINUES INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL
INCREMENT EVEN MORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...CONVECTION MAY BEGIN
TO BREW TO THE WEST OF THE CWA OVER MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. INBOUND
MOISTURE WILL REACH INLAND...BUT NOT MUCH MORE IMPETUS THAN THAT
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO TRIGGER ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE WAVE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY...WITH ENOUGH LIFT TO
INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THE FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS DOWNSLOPING TO THE WEST AND AN ISO-
THERMAL TO INVERSION LAYER KEEPING THE LID ON THINGS. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY BE DURING MAX
HEATING...AND NEARER TO COASTAL MOISTURE AT THAT. THERE ARE
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH WHAT ARE ACTUALLY
TWO WAVES. CONTINUED WITH THE GFS...WHICH HAS AT LEAST A FAIR
CONFIDENCE SOLUTION IN BRINGING THE FIRST WAVE ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY
AND A FOLLOW-UP WAVE QUICKLY AFTER... EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
PROLONG SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY HOWEVER...TO BE FOLLOWED
BY AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SINKS SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SOUTH
WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
LOW AND MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...WITH AT LEAST AN OCCASIONAL THREAT
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...AND PROBABLY MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN MOST OF THE TIME.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET WITH SE WINDS BETWEEN
1O TO 15 KNOTS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CELL
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS TO BE PARKED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE NORTH GULF...PROVIDING A
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND. THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MOST
OF THE ENERGY WILL TEND TO STAY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST HOWEVER. INDUCED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UPSTREAM UNDER THE
DISTURBANCE WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND INCREASE WINDS TO 15
KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER
EAST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH UNDERLYING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTH BY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL THEN IMPROVE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. A FLAT
GRADIENT WILL SET UP WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS. SEAS OF THREE FEET
WILL DOMINATE... WITH FOUR FEET SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS. EXERCISE CAUTION
STRENGTH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY...BUT NO ADVISORIES WILL OCCUR DURING THE LONG TERM.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
930 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013

TXZ248>257-051200-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
930 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG...SOME POSSIBLY DENSE AND REDUCING VISIBILITIES FOR
MOTORISTS TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE AT THE LOCAL BEACHES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-051200-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
930 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.