Winter Weather in Texas, December 8, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KLBB OVERNIGHT ALONG OCCASIONAL
VERY LIGHT FZDZ MAY BE POSSIBLE. AS MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION...WE MAY SEE SOME FZFG DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL
TO DROP THINGS INTO LIFR TERRITORY. STILL...CONFIDENCE IN LIFR
CATEGORY IS NOT SUFFICIENT AS THE RH LEVELS HAVE BEEN HOLDING NEAR
80% WITH THE TEMPERATURE SLOWLY RISING. AT KCDS...IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY. CLEARING SKIES LATER IN THE
DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013/

UPDATE...
AREA PUBLIC SAFETY AGENCIES HAVE BEEN REPORTING A LIGHT GLAZE ON
EXPOSED SURFACES INCLUDING ROADWAYS. LARGELY THIS IS BEING
REPORTED AS FREEZING FOG...BUT MORE PRECISELY...IT IS FREEZING
DRIZZLE. GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...IT IS NOT
VISIBLE BEYOND 40NM ON RADAR. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER. AS SUCH...HAVE ELECTED
TO ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT THROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED BUT NEVERTHELESS...AN INCREASE IN TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IS
RESULTING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013/

SHORT TERM...
LOW STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WERE VEERING AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS HAS CREATED WEAK MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITHIN A FAIRLY NARROW LAYER. BELOW THIS LIFT LIES A VERY DRY
LAYER WHICH ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME TO
OVERCOME. A FEW ECHOS THAT APPEARED THIS MORNING DID NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT SLEET AND FLURRIES REACHING THE GROUND.
WEAK UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SHALLOW. GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY CLEAR ON WHETHER THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO FREEZING FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING.

A SURGE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS TURN WESTERLY ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
PANHANDLES WILL BRING IN THE WESTERLY WINDS AND A WARMUP IN
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LONG TERM...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE 20S
ONCE AGAIN. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM UP JUST A BIT INTO
THE 30S TO LOW 40S AS WINDS ALOFT TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW AND
SURFACE WINDS TRY TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH BUT LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OR WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS IS OVERDOING STRONG
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROF THAT MOVES OVER THE AREA WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. ALSO KEEPING
PRECIPITATION AT BAY WILL BE VERY DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WHICH SHOULD HELP EVAPORATE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE A CYCLE OF WEAK FRONTS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH A BIT OF COOLING AND THEN A SLIGHT WARMUP THE DAY
AFTER. FRONTS LOOK TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH COOLING WILL ARRIVE WITH THE FRONTS
SINCE THE COLDEST AIR WILL PUSH MORE EAST THAN SOUTH THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST STILL LOOKS DRY AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
CAN RETURN AHEAD OF EACH FRONT. ALSO...BEST LIFT WITH ANY TROUGH
PASSAGES WILL BE WELL SOUTH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FAVORING DRY
CONDITIONS HERE AS WELL.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        15  40  10  26  13 /  10   0   0  10  10
TULIA         12  38  10  26  13 /  10   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     14  40  11  27  14 /  10   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     15  44  16  29  14 /  10   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       16  43  14  28  13 /  10   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   18  44  19  29  21 /  10   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    17  44  18  30  16 /  10   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     15  38  10  28  15 /  10   0   0  10  10
SPUR          15  42  15  28  16 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     16  40  14  29  18 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041.

&&

99/99/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
816 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

TXZ021>044-090230-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
816 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WINTER WEATHER
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE A THIN GLAZE OF
ICE THUS INCREASING TRAVEL HAZARDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.