Hail in South Dakota, June 17, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
218 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING
TOWARD CNTRL ND WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL SD. AT
THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERSPREADING THE CWA. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAVE RESULTED IN DEWPOINTS FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH 7-8 C/KM LAPSE
RATES WAS PRODUCING MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA
HAVE FORMED IN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE NWRN BLKHLS
SEWD INTO NRN NEB. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND MODEST CAPE THE
STORMS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK TO THIS POINT.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN AND EVNG THE WAVE OVER SWRN SD WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE...EXTENDING WWD INTO NERN WY. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIP SHOULD END QUICKLY THIS EVNG GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LOSS
OF HEATING. SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL...BUT MARGINAL AND
THIN CAPE PROFILES SUGGEST THE UPDRAFTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
CHECK. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR ALL
OF THE CWA TNGT AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.

ON TUESDAY THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 50S...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST MLCAPE TO 1500-2000 J/KG. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA AND THUS DIMINISH THE SHEAR TO
VALUES BARELY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT...WHICH THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ABOUT. HOWEVER...THE Q-G FORCING
WILL BE RATHER WEAK...WITH THE BEST SIGNAL IN THE LOW-LEVELS DUE TO
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AT LEAST A
SMALL MCS TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND TRACK ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING
AND MARGINAL SHEAR THIS SHOULD NOT BE A "BIG" EVENT. THE STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STREAM
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WRN CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH THE PAC NW. CAPE WILL BE QUITE
LARGE...BUT WILL LIKELY BE FIGHTING A CAP AS WELL AS DRY SLOTTING AS
SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. WILL LEAVE POPS IN FORECAST...HIGHEST IN
THE ERN ZONES...WHILE DRYING THINGS OUT IN THE WRN ZONES. EVEN
THOUGH GUIDANCE IS GOING QUITE WARM...WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT
GIVEN GREENNESS. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO
SCNTRL CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
PERIODIC TSTM CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SCT TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY FROM THE BLKHLS INTO
SWRN SD. STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL POSSIBLE FROM THE
TSTMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
649 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-181300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
649 AM MDT (749 AM CDT) MON JUN 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING....THE BLACK HILLS AREA...AND SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT BECOME
SEVERE...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS WEEK. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

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