Hail in South Dakota, July 30, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
213 PM MDT TUE JUL 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT TUE JUL 30 2013

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM SWRN ND/NWRN SD
THROUGH SERN WY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS NOTED MOVING THROUGH SCNTRL
MT/NCNTRL WY. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY IS PUSHING SWD
THROUGH NWRN SD AND NEARING THE BLKHLS...WHERE A BROAD LOW IS
LOCATED.

THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE FIRING THIS AFTN
FROM AROUND THE BLKHLS EWD AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH. MLCAPE OF AROUND 1500J/KG LOCATED FROM NWRN SD INTO NCNTRL
NEB COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-60KTS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN THAT CORRIDOR...WITH
INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD THIS EVE. THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE (NEAR THE BIGHORNS) WILL ALSO AID IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER MUCH OF
THE NIGHT ON THE SD PLAINS FOR BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWFA.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE CWFA BEHIND THIS
AFTNS/TONIGHTS CONVECTION BRINGING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPS. RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE DAY IN OUR WRN ZONES WILL
COMBINE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500J/KG FOR A FEW LATE DAY STORMS IN
NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS...ALTHOUGH SVR STORMS NOT EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN NERN WY AND SWRN SD
AS A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT TUE JUL 30 2013

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH W/NW FLOW BRINGING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH A MODEST
WARMING TREND POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT TUE JUL 30 2013

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
500 AM MDT TUE JUL 30 2013

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-311300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
500 AM MDT (600 AM CDT) TUE JUL 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

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