Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in South Carolina, June 30, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
952 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHERN GEORGIA. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE WITH DEEP LOW
PRESSURE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE EAST COAST AND PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING WATER VAPOR DATA SHOW A DEEP...TROPICAL FLOW IS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. BLENDED AMSU/SSMI
DATA AS WELL AS REGIONAL 30/12Z RAOBS INDICATE THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP IS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PWAT VALUES NEARING 140
PERCENT OF NORMAL...RANGING FROM AROUND 2 INCHES TO AS HIGH AS
2.35 INCHES. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OFF AREA SOUNDINGS ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 80-82 DEGREES WHICH SHOULD BE REACHED SHORTLY.
ALREADY SEEING QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER AND SOME TSTM ACTIVITY
EXPANDING ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST THIS MORNING...WHICH
SHOULD DEVELOP/SPREAD INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES RISE. INCOMING HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SETS SUGGEST THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VARIETY OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSE THE AREA. WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY SHIFT THE HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS SLIGHTLY WITH THE
MID-MORNING MORNING UPDATE. STILL EXPECT QUITE BIT OF ACTIVITY
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL SETUP SLIGHTLY FARTHER INLAND. WILL MAINTAIN
70-80 PERCENT POPS TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MENTION THAT THE RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

WAS VERY TEMPTED TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER 1-HR AND 3-HR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE RECOVERED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. WILL HOLD OFF HOISTING A WATCH FOR NOW...BUT ONE MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY LATER TODAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE
WIND TRAJECTORIES AND THE BEST SUPPORT FROM A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
OCCUR. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT INDICATING THE AREA REMAINING CAUGHT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING WESTWARD WITH TIME IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PERSIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2
INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER GIVEN DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET AND SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS PRETTY SMALL GIVEN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES...BUT IT LIKELY WILL NOT TAKE AS MUCH WIND TO
TOPPLE TREES GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD INDICATING DEEP HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTING WEST OF THE AREA THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST EACH
MORNING TRANSITIONING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIKELY GETTING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...BUT TIMING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS REMAINS DIFFICULT.
THE FORECAST GENERALLY DEPICTS VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS MORNING...THEN PREVAILING SHOWERS WITH VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH THUNDERSTORMS RESTRICTING
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS FROM 16-20Z AT KSAV AND 18-22Z AT
KCHS WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
GREATEST. HOWEVER...ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING WILL BE NEEDED AS
CONVECTIVE TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS ARE THEN FORECAST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MOSTLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR SHORE GEORGIA WATERS. A
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A STALLED FRONT INLAND AND ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A SOLID 15-20 KT WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 4-6 FT. WINDS ALONG
THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GAINING MORE CONTROL LATER THIS
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS...ENHANCED
TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES DUE TO A TIGHTER THAN NORMAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
ALSO BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN THESE SAME AREAS INTO TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. WINDS AND SWELLS SHOULD
BE A BIT LESS ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST...THUS THE RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL REMAIN IN IN LOW CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE GEORGIA BEACHES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-352-374.

&&

ST

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1014 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-301800-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
1014 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
TODAY INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE NATURE OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUCH THAT TORRENTIAL RAINFALL COULD OCCUR
OVER A VERY SHORT PERIOD WITH AS MUCH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES FALLING
WITHIN AN HOURS TIME. GIVEN HOW WET THE AREA HAS BEEN OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEAVY RAIN OVER A
SHORT PERIOD TO PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD ALSO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINS YESTERDAY
AND EARLIER THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION SHOULD FLOODING BE OBSERVED OR IF A FLOOD ADVISORY OR FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR THE INTERNET FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1137 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1131 AM     WATER SPOUT      2 ESE FOREST BEACH      32.13N  80.71W
06/30/2013                   AMZ352             SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED A BRIEF WATERSPOUT OFF HILTON
            HEAD ISLAND. WATERSPOUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300596

JHP