Damaging Winds and Lightning Strike in Pennsylvania, July 7, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
503 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE, THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST,
WILL WEAKEN SOME AND GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR
AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY ARRIVE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THEN IT SHOULD STALL NEAR OUR REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS FRONT MAY THEN DISSIPATE LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS SOME TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
THE WATCH INCLUDES ALL OF OUR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES,
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND CECIL COUNTY. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STROMS ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA/MARYLAND TOWARD THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THE STORMS WEAKENING AS THEY ENTER OUR AREA, AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE INTENSITY AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. THEREFORE THE
WATCH ONLY GOES UNTIL 10 PM.

KIND OF AMAZING THAT DEWPOINTS WERE ACTUALLY RISING DURING THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY ATTRIBUTABLE
FACTOR WOULD BE AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN CLOSED LOW IN THE UPPER MID-WEST AND WEAK SURFACE
TOUGH ACTING TO SQUEEZE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS THE RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE ADDED MOISTURE, NOT LIKE WE
NEEDED MORE, AS ALLOWING NUMEROUS TOWERS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
AND NORTH. A WEAK BAY BREEZE CIRCULATION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED
PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS HARFORD AND CECIL
COUNTIES MARYLAND TO HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS POP UP...THOUGH THIS
SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL BE PULLING THROUGH BY
21-22Z ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS STILL
SOUTHWESTERLY SO IT WILL BE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION BUT LOOKS TO
REACH THE METRO AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THE ENTIRE LINE IS MOVING
QUITE FAST WITHIN 40-50 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
DOWNED TREES AND SOME FLOODING TAKING PLACE ACROSS WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO OUR
REGION. GIVEN THAT OUR AIRMASS IS PRETTY UNSTABLE, THOUGH WE DO HAVE
WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, ANY OUTFLOW THAT KICKS OFF THIS SYSTEM
COULD EASILY REFORM IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT EVENTUALLY PULLS FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WE
SHOULD START TO SEE A WANING TREND AFTER 2-3Z TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHTS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND THIS MORNING'S LOW OR SLIGHTLY
COOLER. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE TONIGHT BY A DEGREE IN
MOST SPOTS GIVEN THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AROUND PLUS THE VERY WARM EVENING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT HAVE BEEN DRIVING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TOMORROW BUT BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST SLOWLY BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER
OFFSHORE WHILE THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MID-WEST
CARVES INTO THE TOP OF RIDGING. AS THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST IT STARTS TO OPEN UP A BIT AND BECOMES LESS COMPACT BUT WE
SHOULD MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERY ACTIVITY FROM THE MORNING ONWARD.

THERE IS A NOTED COLD POOL IN THE MID-LEVELS, ACCOMPANYING THE
OPENING WAVE, THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THIS MAY
LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORMS.
WAS HESITANT TO ADD THIS ENHANCED WORDING INTO THE FORECAST GIVEN
OUR LIMITING FACTOR TOMORROW WOULD BE THE IMMENSE CLOUD COVER
AROUND. THAT BEING SAID, THE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT FORMED THIS
AFTERNOON OCCURRED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE COLD POOL AND WERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WERE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER. SO WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ENHANCEMENT OF UPDRAFTS JUST BASED ON CLOUD COVER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW WOULD YIELD GREATER
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES COMBINED WITH -5 TO -6C LIFTED INDICES SO
THE VARIABLES ARE THERE.

THE ONE GOOD THING ABOUT THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND THE INCREASED
CHANCES IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THAT IT WILL EAT UP A MAJORITY OF
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE STAT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE MID-60S TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BE
CAUSED BY THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT OR OF THE ADDED
CONVECTION. EITHER WAY WE WILL FEEL A LOT BETTER TOMORROW DURING THE
PEAK HEATING WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F ACROSS THE METRO AREA AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER ELSEWHERE.

THE HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE TOMORROW AS ANOTHER DAY OF
HEAT INDICES PUSHING 100F IS EXPECTED ACROSS A BETTER PORTION OF THE
REGION. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT THE HIGHER-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING A
BETTER DEFINED THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO OUR
WEST AND PUSHING INTO THE AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE OR
BREAK THE BETTER MOISTURE POOLING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND COULD
PROVIDE SOME RELIEF IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER DURING
THE PEAK HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A RIDGE IS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
SOUTHERN STATES WITH ANOTHER ONE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THESE FEATURES WILL GENERALLY MOVE A LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK,
HOWEVER AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY INTO THE EAST
STARTING THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROBABLY TEND TO CLOSE OFF AND MEANDER
FOR AWHILE DUE TO RIDGING ON BOTH SIDES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
EVENTUALLY THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD SOME
OVER THE WEEKEND TO PUSH THE TROUGH WESTWARD AS WELL. AT THE SURFACE
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY, THEN THIS
SHOULD STALL IN OUR VICINITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MEANDERS. THIS BOUNDARY MAY THEN GET SHOVED WESTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND OR DISSIPATE DUE TO BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS
WESTWARD SOME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
THEN GENERALLY 12Z WPC GUIDANCE /ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/ THEREAFTER.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH ENOUGH LIFT TO
MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING.
THEREAFTER, THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON THE WANE ACROSS OUR AREA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED THERE AS SOME INCREASING WAA OCCURS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGIONS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA IS WESTERLY, AND
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH BEING
PRESENT. THIS MAY BE THE MAIN TRIGGER TO FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR WESTERN
ZONES. THEREFORE, WE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS /CHC/ ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. THE AIRMASS SHOULD WARM SOME AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN THE
URBAN AREAS OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THE AIRMASS MAY BE A BIT
DRIER THOUGH FOLLOWING THE MONDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE TROUGH, THEREFORE
AS OF NOW NO HEAT RELATED HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGIONS INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME AS
THIS OCCURS, HOWEVER ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT ALOFT WEDNESDAY
MAY RESULT IN A LEE SIDE TROUGH ONCE AGAIN. THIS COULD BE ENHANCED
SOME BY A BIT MORE WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS FEATURE MAY BE
THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT THE
HIGHEST POPS /HIGH CHC/ ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO TURN THE FLOW MORE CYCLONIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
LATER WEDNESDAY, THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT LINGER LONGER. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST SHEAR REMAINS TO OUR
WEST, HOWEVER IF HIGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH ENOUGH OF A
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS, THEN SOME STORMS LATER WEDNESDAY COULD BECOME
LOCALLY STRONG. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT
HIGHER DUE TO SOME WARMING OF THE AIRMASS, AND DEW POINTS SHOULD
RECOVER SOME FROM TUESDAY. THEREFORE, HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH
100 DEGREES FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE HIGHLY
URBANIZED CENTERS. THIS COULD BE TEMPERED SOME THOUGH FROM
CONVECTION OR MORE CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES MORE DURING THURSDAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHING OUR AREA. SOME OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON
FROM WEST TO EAST, AND THIS APPEARS TO BE WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE TRIGGER MAY BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT TEAMS UP
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MORE NOTED HEIGHT FALLS. GIVEN THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS LOW
ATTM HOWEVER SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY IF ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR NEAR OR ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH. THE POPS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY WITH THEM
TOPPING OUT AT LOW LIKELY, THEN TAPERING DOWN AT NIGHT. WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF MORE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUALLY SOME
CONVECTION, THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE COOLER THEREFORE NO HEAT
RELATED HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST
SOUTH OR ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT ON TIMING. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A MECHANISM FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PW VALUES WILL BE NEAR 2 INCHES
SO ONCE AGAIN HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN. WENT TOWARD THE RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS AND LIMITED ADVECTION FROM A COOLER AIRMASS MAY
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES COOLER IN THE DAY.

THIS FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND PUMPED NORTH ON THE BACKSIDE
OF A RETROGRADING BERMUDA HIGH. THIS AIRMASS MAY STILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR
CONCERNS REGARDING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER EXTEND INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL AND THAT HAS REFLECTED IN THE TEMPERATURES WITH WARMER LOWS
AND COOLER HIGHS.

THE 12Z GFS IS NOW THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARDS TO THE
RETROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN BY SUNDAY.THOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND EC DO
AGREE ON THIS SOLUTION. HIGHER CHANCES FOR DIURNAL STORMS ARE
REFLECTED ON SATURDAY WHEN COMPARED TO SUNDAY TO REFLECT THIS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ATTM LOOK A TOUCH WARMER WITH LESS CHANCE FOR PRECIP
AND LOWER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...VFR WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF
OUR TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE CHANGED THE PROB30 TO A
TEMPO BUT MOVED THE TIMING UP BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA, IF IT WERE TO
HOLD TOGETHER, WOULD BE NEAR RDG AND ABE BY 22-23Z AND THEN AN
HOUR OR SO LATER ACROSS THE PHL METRO TERMINALS. NOT CONFIDENT ON
THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO MIV/ACY SINCE THE SURFACE
AND MID-LEVEL FLOW IS STILL MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF TERMINAL IMPACTS LATE TONIGHT WITH
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS.

MONDAY...MUCH IN THE SAME AS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THERE SHOULD BE MORE ALTOCUMULUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS A
MID-LEVEL SYSTEM NEARS. THIS COULD ONCE AGAIN INITIATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
PLACE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
EVENING WITH AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER DUE TO CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER DUE TO CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON OUR WATERS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 3-4 FEET WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS STILL IN PLACE. THERE COULD BE THE OCCASIONAL
GUST UPWARDS OF 20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MASSIVE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL NEARBY THOUGH IT IS SLIDING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH. WE INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT THE CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY INCREASE
SOME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WHICH MAY ALLOW SEAS TO REACH 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH GIVEN THAT THE
WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY UNDER 25 KNOTS BECAUSE OF THE WARMTH OF THE
AIR MASS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY LOOKING LIKE THE GREATER CHC FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY AND WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060>062-101-
     103-105.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012-013-020-027.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES/GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE/HEAVENER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
506 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

PAZ054-055-082115-
CARBON-MONROE-
506 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND STALLING FRONT COULD POSE THE THREAT OF
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ060>062-101-103-105-082115-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
506 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND STALLING FRONT COULD POSE THE THREAT OF
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ012-013-020-027-082115-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
506 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND STALLING FRONT COULD POSE THE THREAT OF
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-082115-
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
506 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND STALLING FRONT COULD POSE THE THREAT OF
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ070-071-102-104-106-082115-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
506 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND STALLING FRONT COULD POSE THE THREAT OF
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ016-021>023-082115-
SALEM-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
506 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND STALLING FRONT COULD POSE THE THREAT OF
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002-003-MDZ012-015-019-020-082115-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
506 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 INTO THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND STALLING FRONT COULD POSE THE THREAT OF
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ008-082115-
CECIL-
506 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND STALLING FRONT COULD POSE THE THREAT OF
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-082115-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
506 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND STALLING FRONT COULD POSE THE THREAT OF
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-082115-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
506 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FRONT COULD TRIGGER GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
511 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

PAZ054-055-060-061-072215-
BERKS PA-CARBON PA-LEHIGH PA-MONROE PA-
511 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...A LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY AFFECT
BERKS...CARBON...NORTHWESTERN LEHIGH AND WESTERN MONROE COUNTIES
IN EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN 545 PM AND 630
PM...

AT 506 PM EDT...A LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED
FROM BLOOMSBURG TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF SHAMOKIN TO 20 MILES WEST OF
COLUMBIA TO 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF MIDDLE RIVER...AND DEVELOPING EAST
NORTHEAST AT 45 TO 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 OR 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS
AS WELL AS DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR TRESCKOW AROUND 550 PM...
WOMELSDORF AROUND 600 PM...WEATHERLY AROUND 605 PM...SUMMIT HILL
AROUND 610 PM AND SHOEMAKERSVILLE AROUND 615 PM.

LAT...LON 4058 7603 4065 7599 4071 7581 4074 7577
      4092 7600 4100 7575 4105 7578 4110 7576
      4114 7569 4113 7564 4123 7554 4125 7530
      4124 7529 4083 7550 4079 7561 4073 7557
      4041 7582 4025 7606 4050 7644

FORECASTER:  DRAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
531 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

PAZ054-060-061-072230-
BERKS PA-CARBON PA-LEHIGH PA-
531 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...A LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
BERKS...CARBON AND NORTHWESTERN LEHIGH COUNTIES...

AT 525 PM EDT...A LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED
FROM CENTRALIA TO 12 MILES WEST OF EAST PROSPECT...AND WAS OVERALL
MOVING AND DEVELOPING EAST NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS
AS WELL AS FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR TRESCKOW...AND STRAUSSTOWN AROUND 600
PM...BEAVER MEADOWS...AND WOMELSDORF AROUND 605 PM...BERNVILLE
AROUND 610 PM...WEATHERLY...AND LANSFORD AROUND 615 PM...SUMMIT
HILL...NESQUEHONING AND CENTERPORT AROUND 620 PM.

LAT...LON 4052 7625 4058 7603 4065 7599 4071 7581
      4074 7577 4084 7592 4092 7600 4102 7574
      4105 7556 4101 7552 4095 7557 4093 7556
      4017 7594 4050 7644

FORECASTER:  DRAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
556 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

PAZ054-055-060>062-072245-
BERKS PA-CARBON PA-LEHIGH PA-MONROE PA-NORTHAMPTON PA-
556 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...A LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
CARBON...MONROE...NORTH CENTRAL BERKS...NORTHWESTERN LEHIGH AND WEST
CENTRAL NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES...

AT 550 PM EDT...A LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED
FROM FREELAND TO TUSCARORA TO LAKE WYNONAH...MOVING AND DEVELOPING
EAST NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THERE MAY
BE A COUPLE OF SMALL TREE LIMBS KNOCKED DOWN. THESE STORMS HAVE
WEAKENED A BIT SINCE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AN HOUR AGO.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR WEATHERLY...AND LANSFORD AROUND 600
PM...WEATHERLY...SUMMIT HILL...AND NESQUEHONING AROUND 605 PM...JIM
THORPE...WANAMAKERS...WANAMAKERS...AND NEW MAHONING AROUND 610 PM
AND ARROWHEAD LAKE AROUND 615 PM.

LAT...LON 4125 7518 4094 7521 4070 7540 4054 7615
      4059 7605 4058 7603 4065 7599 4074 7577
      4084 7592 4092 7600 4100 7575 4102 7574
      4105 7578 4108 7578 4111 7575 4114 7569
      4113 7564 4118 7559

FORECASTER:  DRAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

PAZ060-061-070-101>103-072300-
BERKS PA-DELAWARE PA-EASTERN CHESTER PA-LEHIGH PA-WESTERN CHESTER PA-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY PA-
620 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...A LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
CHESTER...SOUTH CENTRAL LEHIGH...SOUTHERN BERKS...WEST CENTRAL
DELAWARE AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 618 PM EDT...A LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED
FROM KLEINFELTERSVILLE TO LEOLA TO ROCK SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 TO 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR WITH ONE OR TWO OF
THESE STORMS AS WELL AS BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN. DO NOT STAY IN THE
OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE
INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR WERNERSVILLE...GLEN ROY...AND
GLEN ROY AROUND 625 PM...WHITFIELD...WEST WYOMISSING...WEST
LAWN...AND OXFORD AROUND 630 PM...WYOMISSING HILLS...WEST READING
AND SHILLINGTON AROUND 635 PM.

LAT...LON 4057 7553 4034 7547 3989 7551 3972 7613
      3977 7607 3985 7603 3988 7599 3997 7600
      4004 7594 4011 7595 4014 7589 4029 7612
      4037 7621

FORECASTER:  DRAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
625 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

MDZ008-072315-
CECIL MD-
625 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...A LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN
CECIL COUNTY...

AT 621 PM EDT...A LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED
FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO PLEASANT FURNACE...MOVING EAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL AS A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR CONOWINGO...AND CONOWINGO AROUND 630
PM...RICHARDSMERE...RICHARDSMERE...OCTORARO...AND OCTORARO AROUND
635 PM...WEST NOTTINGHAM...WEST NOTTINGHAM...RISING SUN AND RISING
SUN AROUND 645 PM.

LAT...LON 3973 7613 3972 7581 3944 7600 3946 7602
      3947 7600 3952 7599 3955 7603 3955 7609
      3957 7610 3956 7608 3957 7608 3964 7616
      3966 7616 3972 7623

FORECASTER:  DRAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
651 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

PAZ060-061-103-105-072330-
BERKS PA-LEHIGH PA-UPPER BUCKS PA-WESTERN MONTGOMERY PA-
651 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
MONTGOMERY...SOUTHEASTERN BERKS...SOUTHEASTERN LEHIGH AND WEST
CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTIES...

AT 647 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM AMITY
GARDENS TO BIRDSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN
THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE
INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN CAN CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR STOWE AROUND 700 PM...BECHTELSVILLE AROUND
705 PM...BALLY AROUND 710 PM...EAST GREENVILLE AROUND 720
PM...ZIONSVILLE AROUND 725 PM AND TRUMBAUERSVILLE AROUND 730 PM.

LAT...LON 4033 7582 4053 7541 4032 7533 4024 7569
      4024 7570 4023 7573 4020 7584

FORECASTER:  DRAG