Heavy Rain in Oklahoma, July 25, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
339 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THROUGH TONIGHT: IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER ACTIVE NIGHT IS IN STORE
JUDGING BY UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO.
IN ADDITION, A STRONG SUMMER COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE TO THESE FEATURES,
CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL STEER THESE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. CHANCES FOR RAIN EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT, BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE EAST OF A
BOISE CITY TO AMARILLO LINE. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND ALL STORMS SHOULD BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 7 AM.

THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MUDDY DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY. DESPITE THIS, VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PANHANDLES ALONG WITH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. ACROSS THESE AREAS, THE ATMOSPHERE IS BEGINNING TO
DESTABILIZE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S.
MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG, BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 40 KT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF MODERATE BUOYANCY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR, THERE IS AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A COUPLE OF STORMS TO BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
NORTH AND WEST OF AN ADRIAN TO GUYMON LINE THROUGH 8 PM. LARGE HAIL
UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS THROUGH 9 PM. IT APPEARS THAT SOME TYPE
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING AND MARCH SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS
COMPLEX WILL MOSTLY IMPACT LOCATIONS EAST OF A GUYMON TO SHAMROCK
LINE AND COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH IF A COLD
POOL CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE MAIN THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER
FROM THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL OCCUR BEFORE 12 AM. IT'S VERY
POSSIBLE THERE MAY ONLY BE A SMALL SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS DUE TO A LESS BUOYANT AIR MASS THAN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
GIVEN THE 24-HR PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE, FAVORABLE PROCESSES FOR EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION-
PRODUCING CONVECTION, AND AMSU BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA
SHOWING VALUES +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: A BREAK FROM THE RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

SATURDAY-THURSDAY: AFTER A SHORT-LIVED BREAK FROM THE RAIN, ANOTHER
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY
60 CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED MONDAY, BUT MORE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT.

JACKSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 20
PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  85  61  85  64 /  60   5   5   5  10
BEAVER OK                  67  89  63  90  66 /  80   5   5   5  20
BOISE CITY OK              63  85  61  88  63 /  40  10  20  30  30
BORGER TX                  69  89  64  87  70 /  60   5   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              68  88  64  90  68 /  60   0   5  10  20
CANYON TX                  67  85  61  87  63 /  60   5   5   5  10
CLARENDON TX               70  88  62  86  66 /  70   5   5   5  10
DALHART TX                 63  85  60  87  62 /  50   5  20  20  30
GUYMON OK                  64  88  61  89  65 /  60   5   5  20  30
HEREFORD TX                66  86  59  86  62 /  60   0   5   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                69  87  62  88  68 /  80   5   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   65  85  60  85  65 /  60   5   5   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                71  87  61  85  66 /  70  10   5   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              71  89  63  87  67 /  70  10   5   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

EA/JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
346 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-261100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
346 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 12 AM. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP
TO QUARTER SIZE. ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. ONCE AGAIN...SOME
STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
AND BE READY FOR ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JACKSON