Winter Storm in Oklahoma, February 25 to 26, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
522 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO MOSTLY SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE TONIGHT
AND END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013/

DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS RESULTED IN PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS WILL ALSO DELAY THE FULL
TRANSITION TO SNOW IN MANY PLACES DUE TO THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD STILL RESULT IN A BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOWFALL LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER BAND IS NOT CLEAR CUT...BUT THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO BE IMPACTED ARE THE COUNTIES UNDER THE CURRENT
BLIZZARD AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS. OVERALL...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT.

THE SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRY BUT COOL
WEATHER THEN PREVAILING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

WENT COLDER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ON LOWS TONIGHT AS READINGS
FALL TO NEAR 32 IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. STAYED NEAR OR JUST
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES BEYOND TONIGHT AS THEY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON JUST WHERE AND HOW EXTENSIVE THE SNOWPACK IS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ064.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ064.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ059.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011.

&&

AVIATION...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
455 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
...BLIZZARD/WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER.
	SNOW ACCUMULATION.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...EARLY EVENING.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...PAWNEE...OSAGE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES
                                IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

POOR VISIBILITY.
	RISK...ELEVATED
        AREA...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
        ONSET...EARLY EVENING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA. THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR HIGHEST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO ACCUMULATE IN AREAS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44
AND IN PARTICULAR NORTHWEST OSAGE COUNTY WHERE UP TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ARE
STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. BLIZZARD
WARNINGS AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SEE /OKCWSWTSA/ FOR THE LATEST DETAILS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
PERSONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44 SHOULD PREPARE FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OSAGE COUNTY WHERE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE MOST FELT.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THOSE AREAS WILL MAKE TRAVEL EXTREMELY DIFFICULT
IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE. MAKE SURE ADEQUATE SUPPLIES OF FOOD...WATER AND
NECESSARY MEDICATIONS ARE ON HAND TO LAST THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE WINTER STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST
AND END ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM EXITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
758 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     SNOW             HALLETT                 36.23N 96.57W
02/25/2013  E0.5 INCH        PAWNEE             OK   STORM CHASER

&&

SFP