A large area of rain with embedded heavier showers associated with a cold front moved slowly across the area during the overnight hours from September 20 to 21. Widespread heavy rainfall occurred as a result with isolated flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
A large area of rain with embedded heavier showers associated with a cold front moved slowly across the area during the overnight hours from September 20 to 21. Widespread heavy rainfall occurred as a result with isolated flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 21, 1:28 AM EST, 26 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 228 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTERACTING WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING PLEASANT FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING FOR TONIGHT IS STILL ON TRACK...AND CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WERE PRIMARILY COSMETIC. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TIMING OF THE POPS (WITH SOME INCREASES IN THE AREA OF THE 100-POPS) AND ALSO TO THE WEATHER TYPES. AS INSTABILITY HAS WANED...THUNDER HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO COME BY...AND THE STORM CORES EVEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WERE NOT VERY TALL. THE PRECIP MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THE HWO WAS UPDATED A LITTLE WHILE AGO TO ADDRESS A POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING...AS AREAS IN THE FAR NORTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA HAVE REQUIRED FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR ESTIMATED RAINFALL OF AROUND TWO AND A HALF INCHES (GENERALLY HIGHER THAN THE LEGACY STORM TOTAL ESTIMATES BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE DUAL-POL ESTIMATES). AS A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > PROGRESSIVE/DIGGING MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE UPR MS VLY TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT AND EAST OF ILNS FA ON SATURDAY. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS TRENDING TOWARD A SOLN GENERATING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH RIPPLES INTO CENTRAL KY BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WAVE WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT... ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PRECIPITATION EVENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES OR 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO NW OHIO BY 06Z AND JUST EAST OF I-71 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL TOWARD 00Z IN THE WEST AND THEN SPREAD THESE POPS ACRS ENTIRE FA. FOR TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND FILL IN ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROF INTO WRN OHIO DURG LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE 0-3KM SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 30 KTS INTO WESTERN OHIO ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF. LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS EXPECTED WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO PRODUCT. LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM UPPER 50S NW TO THE MID 60S SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO PIVOT THRU THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL INDUCE A SFC WAVE ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GOOD MODEL SOLN CONSENSUS WITH THE SFC WAVE OVER N CENTRAL KY BY 12Z SAT...NRN WEST VA BY 18Z...AND WRN PA BY 00Z. THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE PCPN ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE HALF OF FA. WILL END PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST DURG THE MORNING AND THE FAR EAST DURG THE AFTN. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NW TO THE LOWER 70S SE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT. COOL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND COOL WEATHER SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME AFTN CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH 8H THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA. COOLS HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH. SKIES TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN COOLEST TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED. EXPECT SUNDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NE TO THE UPPER 40S SW. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SHARP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA/NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND A RATHER BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UNDERNEATH THIS RATHER AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL BE A WEAKNESS/TROUGH IN THE HEIGHT FIELD ALONG THE GULF COAST. ATTENDANT TO THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE...MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH VERY LOW DEW POINTS...AND PLENTY OF SUN WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. NO ISSUES IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER UNTIL TUESDAY...WHEN REMNANTS OF THE DEAMPLIFYING WAVE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHEARS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE RIDGE AXIS...AND SOMEWHAT IS ENVELOPED INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. SEEMS WHEN THESE TROUGHS ALIGN ALONG THE GULF COAST THAT DEEP MOISTURE REALLY STRUGGLES TO RETURN NORTH - AND MODELS SUGGESTING THAT RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH ON TUESDAY WILL NOT ATTAIN SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY...RATHER REMAIN WEAK FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL SEVERELY LIMIT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE SHEARING/WEAKENING WAVE FROM THE WEST ARRIVES. 19.12Z AND 20.00Z ECMWF THE MOST BULLISH IN ALLOWING THE MERGING OF THE ARRIVING WAVE AND WEAK TROUGH OVER SRN CONUS TO ALLOW A WEAK CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP AND MEANDER UP THE OHIO RIVER ON TUES NIGHT INTO WED. INHERITED FORECAST HAD SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN FAR SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND DESPITE MODEL QPFS HAVE PULLED BACK...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK FORCING /SHOULD AN ECMWF SCENARIO PLAY OUT/ MAY ALLOW FOR A SMALL SHOWER THREAT TUES NIGHT/WED. THUS WILL KEEP IN FORECAST FOR NOW. ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE FORCED FROM WELL ABOVE THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SO ANY RAIN WOULD BE LIGHT/SCATTERED. THIS FEATURE MOVES OFF WED EVENING TO BE REPLACED AGAIN BY RIDGING AND RENEWED PRESENCE OF SURFACE HIGH/PRESSURE AND WEAK EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW /DRY/. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY...BUILDING WARMTH TO THE WEST WILL OOZE IN AND MOVE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL /LOWER 80S/. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND DEEPENS...HEIGHTS WILL RISE FURTHER AND EVEN WARMER AIR ARRIVES BY WEEK/S END WITH AT LEAST LOWER/MID 80S. A LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT LOOKS VERY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. AT THIS PART OF THE WEEK...BANKING ON SLOWER EASTWARD FRONTAL PROGRESSIONS OUT OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH THUS KEEPING DRY...AS ANY FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL WEST...AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND AS THE POTENT HEIGHT FALLS MOVE EAST. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ACROSS KCMH AND KLCK DURING THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS. MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE VSBYS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. THERE ARE A WIDE RANGE OF CIGS ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GENERALLY WENT WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN RISING TO MVFR CIGS DURING THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO THE VFR CATEGORY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD SKIES WILL BE CLEARING. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...NOVAK
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 839 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-220045- WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO- SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT- PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE- SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON- FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY- FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN- HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO- 839 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. RAIN...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR..AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A TOTAL OF OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HATZOS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1042 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1040 PM HEAVY RAIN CENTERVILLE 39.64N 84.14W
09/20/2013 M1.76 INCH MONTGOMERY OH TRAINED SPOTTER
STORM TOTAL THROUGH 1040 PM.
&&
HATZOSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1120 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1118 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 ESE LEBANON 39.42N 84.15W
09/20/2013 M1.75 INCH WARREN OH NWS EMPLOYEE
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1205 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 WNW MASON 39.39N 84.38W
09/21/2013 M1.95 INCH BUTLER OH TRAINED SPOTTER
STORM TOTAL
&&
SNYDERThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor ponding of water was occurring on roadways due to heavy rainfall. Factory road was closed due to high water caused by heavy rainfall.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, September 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 472982.