Hail in North Carolina, May 23, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
752 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW...
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK... WITH A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY CONCENTRATED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM...OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DECREASED ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND THE NC PIEDMONT.  SOME NEW SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS TRIED TO GET GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAINS BUT LOOKS
TO BE STRUGGLING AS DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED INSTABILITY FALLS.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW A FAIRLY EVIDENT WIND SHIFT TO
THE NNW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAINS AS THE BELOW MENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CWA. OTHERWISE...TOUCHED UP
TEMPERATURES AND MADE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FCST.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE CONVECTION WILL BE SHUNTED EAST BY THE VEERING FLOW AHEAD OF THE
MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROF AND
SWINGS IT EASTWARD...CARRYING MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH
IT. EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWER CHANCE ON THE TN BORDER THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE BEING FORCED UPWARD BY THE INCREASING
NW FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY DAY WITH A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. AN EVEN MORE
DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND CARRY THE
TROF AXIS FARTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...BUT THIS WAVE HAS NO
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS FAR SOUTH. MIXING WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHALLOW BECAUSE OF A STRONG INVERSION...WHICH WILL PREVENT THE
TAPPING OF THE MUCH STRONGER WINDS AROUND 850 MB. THUS WE SHOULD
AVOID ANY WIND ADVISORY ISSUES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW CATEGORIES
COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM THURSDAY...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOL NW FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH CANADIAN ORIGIN IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL CONTROL
THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY PRODUCING GENERALLY CLEAR AND
SEASONALLY COOL WEATHER. IN FACT...SOME SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
COULD SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED FROST FRI NIGHT PARTICULARLY IN THE
LITTLE TN VALLEY.

ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ALONG WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...BUT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING WHICH MEANS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS QUITE MINIMAL ON SUNDAY AND
ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL WOULD PROBABLY BE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS WHICH ADVERTISES WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WITH 40S COMMON
ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT MID 60S TO AROUND
70 MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE 06Z/12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE NOW SOMEWHAT
AT ODDS IN REGARD TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS IS QUICKER MOVING THE ANOMOLOUSLY STRONG
UPPER LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND OUT OF THE PICTURE. THIS ALLOWS
THE FLOW TO DEAMPLIFY OVER THE SE BY MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THE ECM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS
THE SE U.S. IN A NW FLOW REGIME TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER HIGH IT
HOLDS STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS WEAK
IMPULSES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NW FLOW MAKING FOR A
RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD UNTIL LATE WEEK WHEN THE ECM FINALLY BUILDS
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORTS THE GFS
OPERATIONAL RUNS.

WPC HAS FAVORED THE ECM IN ITS MEDIUM RANGE. HOWEVER...I HAVE HEDGED
THE FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF OUR GSP OFFICIAL/GFS/ECM WHICH WOULD
PUT A DIURNAL HARMONIC TO THE FORECAST FAVORING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE EXCEPTION IS MON AFTERNOON
WHEN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE NC
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT THAT SLIPPED THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUN RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO...THEN WARM TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IF THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES...MAX
TEMPS WOULD BE ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.  LOOKS AS IF THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IN THE
REGION TO KEEP CIGS AT AROUND THE 12-15KFT LEVEL THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT BY DAYBREAK.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
MORE NNW COMPONENT AROUND THE 04Z TIMEFRAME AND SHOULD STAY AROUND
6-7KTS GENERALLY.  OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND 14Z FRIDAY
MORNING AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS MIX
DOWN.  THUS...WENT WITH PREVAILING 12KTS WITH 25KT GUSTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.  AS
WITH KCLT ABOVE...WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST CONCERN ON FRIDAY AS
850MB FLOW ALOFT MIXES DOWN.  THUS...ALL SITES HAVE GROUPS WITH
PREVAILING WINDS IN THE 10-12KT RANGE WITH GUST APPROACHING 25KTS.
KAVL LOOKS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL AS FLOW CHANNELS
THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO GUST NEAR 30KTS.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  98%     MED   79%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/PM
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...CDG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
404 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-242015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
404 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SOME OF STORMS
WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOOD ISSUES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-242015-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
404 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THREAT OF
STRONG STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER AND MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
435 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

NCZ037-232115-
DAVIE-
435 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN DAVIE COUNTY THROUGH
515 PM EDT...

AT 430 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LONE HICKORY...OR 7 MILES
SOUTH OF YADKINVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  FARMINGTON...
  BERMUDA RUN...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3589 8040 3588 8041 3588 8040 3586 8040
      3599 8070 3605 8069 3606 8053 3605 8045
      3601 8041 3599 8041 3598 8039

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
441 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

SCZ009-232130-
YORK-
441 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN YORK COUNTY THROUGH
530 PM EDT...

AT 438 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HICKORY GROVE...OR 9 MILES WEST OF YORK...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  YORK...
  MCCONNELLS...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3482 8117 3482 8119 3496 8148 3505 8144
      3505 8141 3506 8140 3500 8109

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
442 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     HAIL             BOILING SPRINGS SC      35.04N 81.98W
05/23/2013  E0.25 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

&&

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
500 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             4 ENE INMAN             35.07N 82.03W
05/23/2013  E1.00 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 INCH HAIL REPORTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SUGAR RIDGE
            RD AND CLARK RD ENE OF INMAN, SC.

&&

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
510 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

SCZ007-008-013-232200-
CHEROKEE-SPARTANBURG-UNION-
510 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN SPARTANBURG...NORTHERN
UNION AND SOUTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 504 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COWPENS...OR 9 MILES EAST OF
SPARTANBURG...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3493 8188 3506 8182 3504 8149 3496 8148
      3494 8149 3494 8148 3482 8147 3481 8148
      3481 8147 3476 8146

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
807 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

NCZ035-240030-
ALEXANDER-
807 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ALEXANDER COUNTY
THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

AT 803 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOOMER...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL CAN CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES.
CONSIDER MOVING VEHICLES TO A COVERED STORAGE AREA BEFORE THE STORM
ARRIVES.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3600 8100 3596 8100 3587 8103 3586 8104
      3600 8126 3604 8124 3604 8110 3603 8108
      3604 8105 3604 8103

LANE