Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, June 26, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK
PRODUCING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN TOMORROW...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STILL EXIST EACH
DAY. A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE PATTERN
UNSETTLED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...THE STRONGEST EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
MAINLY OUTFLOW DRIVEN ACTIVITY FROM MTN MORNING TSRA. WITH SB CAPE
VALUES RUNNING 3000 TO 4000 J/KG EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTN...COVERAGE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY EXPANDING EASTWARD.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO SHARPEN UP WEST OF THE
MTN CHAIN AND ARE FUELING DECENT COVERAGE OVER ERN TN. WILL THUS
NEED TO MAINTAIN LIKELY COVERAGE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THE MOST PROMINENT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DRIVING
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THIS COULD REACH OUR AREA BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH COVERAGE LINGERING OVER THE MTNS...IF NOT
SURVIVING INTO THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. POP
TRENDS HAVE BEEN READJUSTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FOR THIS FEATURE.
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER WILL ALSO INCREASE TO
NEARLY 30 KT OVER THE MTNS OVERNIGHT TO ASSIST SOME ORGANIZATION
ALONG ANY THUNDERSTORM LINES.

THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA ON THU AS A
COLD FRONT APROACHES FROM THE NW. DESPITE BETTER CELL MOVEMENT IN
THE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLD HYDRO THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING CELLS.
IN ADDITION...THE BALANCE OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW ORGANIZED LINES OR CLUSTERS OF SEVERE TSTMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT WED...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IN THE SHORT RANGE IS
STILL FORECAST TO TRANSITION FROM A NW FLOW REGIME OVER THE SE
STATES...TO ACTUALLY A SW FLOW BY LATE SAT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST CENTRAL U.S. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WX...THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK BOUNDARIES WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA THU EVENING ALONG WITH THE ATTENDANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HENCE...THE FORECAST INDICATES LOWERING POPS AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE THU OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MOUNTAIN
BORDER COUNTIES WHERE WE WILL HAVE TO HANG ONTO A CHANCE POPS AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF REASPONSE DURING THE EVENING PROBABLY
FOR CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM TN. ON FRI...THE WIND FIELD WILL BE
VEERED TO A GENERALLY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION EARLY ON WHICH
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH THE MORNING
AND ALLOWING FOR A FAST RUN UP IN TEMPS. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW WITH
WINDS BACKING TO A SW DIRECTION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST
SBCAPES TO INCREASE INTO THE 1500-2000J RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. BOTH
MODELS ALSO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF QPF RESPONSE IN THE 18Z-00Z
TIMEFRAME...SO WILL RAMP UP POPS FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE SCT
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEAST POPS (NUMEROUS) OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR
LATE IN THE DAY. WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PARTICULAR STRONG...BUT 25-30 KTS
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAY BE REALIZED SO SOME ORGANIZATION MAY OCCUR
ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. CAN'T ARGUE WITH THE SPC SEE TEXT
DISCUSSION FOR THE AREA ON FRI. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA FRI EVENING...SO WILL RAMP DOWN POPS BY MIDNIGHT. ON
SAT...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A MUCH DRYER AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS INSTABILITY FORECAST DURING THE DAY. HENCE...IT
APPEARS SAT SHOULD BE A GENERALLY A NICE DAY WITH LOWER RH AND NO
MENTIONABLE POPS. GENERALLY USED AN ALLBLEND-BC APPROACH FOR TEMP
FIELDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS JUST AFTER A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE WITH A LARGE TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THE TROUGH DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON THE OUTER
FRINGE OF THE TROUGH. THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE GENERAL PATTERN
UNSETTLED AND AFTER A DRIER SATURDAY THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK IN. THE CWA WILL REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE
HIGH FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED TERM...AND WITH THE RESURGENCE OF
BERMUDA HIGH EARLY IN THE WEEK COMES MORE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SETUP WILL DEVELOP SOME INSTABILITY EACH
AFTERNOON AND DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE A FEATURE EVERY DAY IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE. MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGTLY BELOW
AVERAGE AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAINLY SCATTERED VFR LEVEL CONVECTIVE CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPO TSRA CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE
WEST 20Z TO 00Z AS ACTIVITY SLIDES EAST FROM THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS BACK WEST OF THE MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WITH A DEVELOPING MCS TO KEEP THE KCLT AREA LARGELY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE LOW CLOUD FORECAST IS VERY DIFFICULT
FOR TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE MOIST...BUT THERE MAY BE
A BIT MORE MIXING AND ALSO HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST. THE BEST CONSENSUS IS FOR JUST A FEW LOW CLOUDS
TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THIS POINT. WILL RAMP UP TO PROB30 FOR TSRA
STARTING 16Z AS THE UPPER SUPPORT BEGINS TO ARRIVE WITH THE PASSING
UPPER WAVE. ANTICIPATE MAINLY SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW
END GUSTS NEAR ANY TSRA AND AGAIN WITH MIXING THU.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDER IS FAIRLY IMMINENT AT KGSP...KGMU...AND KAND
AROUND ISSUANCE TIME AS OUTFLOW DRIVEN CONVECTION MOVES OFF THE
MTNS. THE MAIN CONVECTION IS S OF KAVL...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY. COVERAGE IS MUCH LESS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AT PRESENT
SO WILL RIDE ON VCTS THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANTCIPATE
COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING...BUT WITH AN MCS APPROACHING THE MTNS
FROM THE NW LATER TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT TSRA WILL BE BEST
AT KAVL...WITH TSRA POSSIBLY DEVELOPING EAST OF THE MTNS LATER THU
MORNING ON OUTFLOWS OR ON THE STRENGTH OF ARRIVING UPPER SUPPORT.
ANTICIPATE MAINLY SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT BECOMING NW
OVERNIGHT AT KAVL. LOW END GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY TSRA.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS IN THE AREA. BRIEF DRYING IS POSSIBLE FROM THE NW ON
SAT BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
RESTRICTIONS BECOMING LIKELY AGAIN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...VISIN
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-271930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
319 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW OF THE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A WEAK FRONTS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...A
FEW OF WHICH ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LG

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