Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developed along a pre-frontal surface trough across central North Carolina... with moderate instability.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developed along a pre-frontal surface trough across central North Carolina... with moderate instability. A few of these storms became severe and produced damaging wind gusts across the northeast Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 24, 2:10 PM EST, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 310 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT... AND STALL OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT THURSDAY... AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY... THROUGH TONIGHT: LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE NRN COASTAL PLAIN SW THROUGH THE SANDHILLS... AND THE INCOMING COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THE LACK OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND DRY COLUMN HAVE ALLOWED FOR GOOD HEATING TODAY... NEAR 90 TO THE LOWER 90S... WHICH HAS LED TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION (MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG). WE'RE ALREADY SEEING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING... ALTHOUGH THE SOMEWHAT LOW PW (1.4-1.6 IN.) AND POOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS THUS FAR. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES... LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD IMPROVE... AS WILL THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (CURRENTLY AT OR UNDER 5.5 C/KM BUT EXPECTED TO RISE A BIT TO 6.0-6.25 C/KM TONIGHT) AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL INTRODUCE SOME WEAK DPVA LATER TONIGHT... ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE JET OVER THE CENTRAL US NOSING TOWARD THE WRN CAROLINAS. THIS MEANS THAT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT LINE UP IDEALLY WITH THE IMPROVING (DECENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT STILL NOT TREMENDOUS) DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND BETTER WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN. BUT THE INSTABILITY ALONE AND REBOUNDING PW BACK TO 1.8 INCHES OR GREATER STILL SUPPORTS GOOD CHANCE POPS THROUGH TONIGHT... HIGHEST IN THE NORTH WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONGER. WITH STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES... STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INTO TONIGHT... WITH A LESSER THREAT OF HAIL DUE TO THE MARGINAL CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER (JUST NEAR 300 J/KG CURRENTLY DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT... ALTHOUGH IT'S EXPECTED TO RISE TO DECENT VALUES OF 600-800 J/KG EARLY THIS EVENING). NAM/GFS AGREED WELL ON ISOLATED CONVECTION AREAWIDE FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED STORMS TO OUR NW DROPPING TO THE ESE DURING THE EVENING... INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS IT HEADS EASTWARD AND FEEDS ON BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. WILL TREND BACK DOWN TO A LOWER CHANCE LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF THE SE NC COAST LEADING TO A MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NNE... BUT THE DIGGING TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NC AND DPVA TOWARD DAYBREAK SHOULD BRING ENOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT TO CONTINUE AT LEAST LOW POPS LATE. EXPECT NO MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL AT ANY ONE SPOT BUT THE GREATER TOTALS SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL AND NE CWA WHERE THE HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE AND STRONGER DPVA WILL BE FOUND. WITH THE RELATIVELY COOLER AIR NOT ARRIVING UNTIL VERY LATE... PERSISTENCE PROVIDES THE BEST MIN TEMP GUIDANCE... SUPPORTING LOWS OF 67-72. FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE TO OUR SOUTHEAST THURSDAY... MERGING WITH THE PRECEDING TROUGH WHILE THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF OUR COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH IS JUST AROUND 1019 MB BUT CONTAINS AIR THAT IS FAIRLY DENSE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... WITH CORE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. SO DESPITE THE FACT THAT ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL THROUGH CENTRAL NC IS A VERY RARE OCCURRENCE FOR JULY... THIS FRONT MAY BEAT THIS TENDENCY AND SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH SE OF THE CWA TO PUT US ALL IN THE STABLE NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIFFER AS TO HOW STABLE THIS INCOMING AIR MASS WILL BE... WITH A GENERAL ABSENCE OF GOOD MOIST OVERRUNNING THAT WOULD ENHANCE SURFACE-BASED STABILITY. BUT THIS MORNING'S UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWED ENOUGH 925-850 MB MOISTURE TO OUR N AND NNW THAT SHOULD FILTER INTO CENTRAL NC TO PRODUCE VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY... PARTICULARLY WITH POTENTIAL INFLUX OF MARINE AIR AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW ENHANCES THE NNE WINDS INTO THE AREA. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL STABILITY AND FALLING PW AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. BUT THIS DOESN'T OCCUR UNTIL AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE NAM/GFS WHICH KEEP PW ABOVE 1.5 INCHES IN THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. WILL RETAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST AND FAR SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON... THEN NO POPS FROM EARLY EVENING ON THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH FURTHER DRYING AND A WEAKENING WIND FIELD AS THE TROUGH AXIS HEADS TO OUR EAST AND WEAKENS. TEMPS ARE QUITE TOUGH WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER LEADING TO ATYPICALLY LOW THICKNESSES. WILL STICK WITH HIGHS 81-86... A BLEND OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. LOWS 63-70. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT /... AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY... IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...A WEAK EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF FRIDAY DRY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AS ANOTHER PAIR OF SHORTWAVES APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WITH BETTER INSOLATION FRIDAY...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES OVER THURSDAYS VALUES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ALL MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERN WAVE...LIKELY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED...MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT....WHILE A DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BECOMES A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN ANY OTHER MODEL WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE AND THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG WITH A SURFACE WAVE INDUCED ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BASED ON A SLOWER TIMING OF THESE FEATURES...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY RETURN FLOW AND FOCUSED ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY... THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURES A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR BY MONDAY...WHILE THE POSSIBLE REMNANTS OF A SOUTHERN WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE DETAILS OFF THE CLOSED LOW AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT. SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEAK IF THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES AND THE RIDGE EXPANDS EAST...AS MODELS SUGGEST COULD OCCUR. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH SUNSET... BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT... LIKELY TO LAST THROUGH EARLY THU AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SIT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS/ERN PIEDMONT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND THESE COULD AFFECT ANY CENTRAL NC TAF SITE AT ANY TIME THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING... BUT ARE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT INT/GSO 18Z-21Z... RDU 21Z-03Z... FAY 22Z-03Z... AND RWI 23Z-04Z. BRIEF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY OF THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE... CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT AGL UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH (EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM 03-05Z AT INT/GSO... 05Z-07Z AT RDU... 07Z-09Z AT RWI... AND 09Z-12Z AT FAY)... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE FROM THE NNE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 15 KTS POSSIBLE. SCT-BKN CLOUDS BASED AT 1-3 KFT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT... LIFTING SLOWLY TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z THU MORNING. LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THURSDAY... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR RDU/RWI/FAY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AND DISSIPATE TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... THEN CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT... THEN HOLDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SYNOPSIS...WSS/GIH NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...BLS LONG TERM...BLS AVIATION...HARTFIELD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 527 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-250930- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON- RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 527 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING....MAINLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 11 PM. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE A LARGE NUMBER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
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</html>PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
428 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0421 PM TSTM WND GST POPE AFB 35.18N 79.03W
07/24/2013 M43 MPH CUMBERLAND NC ASOS
POPE AFB MEASURED A 43 MPH WIND GUST AT 421 PM.
&&
EVENT NUMBER RAH1300864
VINCENTSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
516 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013
NCZ089-242200-
SAMPSON-
516 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM EDT...
AT 516 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES
WEST OF IVANHOE...OR ABOUT 12 MILES EAST OF ELIZABETHTOWN...MOVING
EAST AT 5 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...IVANHOE...AND
HARRELLS.
HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.
SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE
URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.
&&
LAT...LON 3457 7827 3461 7832 3467 7833 3470 7838
3474 7839 3476 7842 3477 7819 3474 7819
3472 7812 3470 7812 3468 7815 3456 7824
3455 7826
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 264DEG 3KT 3464 7840
VINCENTSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
527 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013
NCZ041-242215-
WAKE-
527 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS WAKE COUNTY THROUGH 615 PM
EDT...
AT 526 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
NEW HOPE...OR ABOUT OVER RALEIGH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...EAST RALEIGH...AND
KNIGHTDALE. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN EXITS 300 AND 303...
INTERSTATE 440 BETWEEN EXITS 6 AND 16...AND HIGHWAY 264 BETWEEN
EXITS 419 AND 429.
HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.
SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE
URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE RUSH HOUR COMMUTE IN EAST AND NORTHEAST
RALEIGH.
&&
LAT...LON 3593 7840 3583 7830 3567 7854 3586 7872
3601 7851
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 230DEG 5KT 3582 7855
VINCENTThe Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 18 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:40 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees and power lines were reported down at the intersection of Heatherfield Way and Southall Road.
A tractor trailer was blown over on I-95 northbound near Mile Marker 160.
A tree was reported down across Medoc Mountain Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 468965, 468967, 468966.