High precipitable water values combined with a weak overrunning event caused a localized flash flooding event across Guilford and northern Davidson Counties.
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The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
High precipitable water values combined with a weak overrunning event caused a localized flash flooding event across Guilford and northern Davidson Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 17, 2:10 PM EST, 4 hours 20 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 310 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL EXTEND INTO THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY... THE REGIONAL RADAR HAS BEEN ACTIVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH THE CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST. THE EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS ALSO ENHANCING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONVERGENCE THAT HAS RESULTED IN A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT AND IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA AND RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND A MINIMUM OF SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF RAIN THAT WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME RAIN OBSERVED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TONIGHT BUT THE GREATEST TOTALS WILL FALL THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST AND IN THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN...LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT NEAR THE VA BORDER. THE WEDGE AIR MASS IS HOLDING TOUGH IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS FROM ROXBORO SOUTH TO ROCKINGHAM WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT CLIMBED OUT OF THE 60S TODAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY OR ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY IN THESE LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG...MOST WIDESPREAD IN THE WEDGE REGION. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DIFFERENT EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA SHOULD RANGE NEAR 70. -BLAES && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY... PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH POPS CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE. THE CLOSED LOW AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ACTUALLY RISING A BIT. IN ADDITION THE DEEP LAYER AIR MASS DRIES SOMEWHAT WITH A GENERAL WEAKER FLOW AND LESS FORCING FOR ASCENT. WITH NO PROMINENT CAD EROSION MECHANISM EXPECTED...THE WEDGE AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE IN SOME FORM INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FURTHER EAST...EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SKINNY CAPE TO PRODUCE A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 70S IN THE TRIAD TO LOWER 80S ON THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. -BLAES && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL OPEN UP SUNDAY AND DRIFT TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE TRAILING SHEAR AXIS WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. SOME PORTION OF THE CAD AIRMASS AIR IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CLOUDS MAY STILL PERSIST WELL INTO MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THUS...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAIN REGARDING HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY. DESPITE POTENTIALLY WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS...ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG...UPPER FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...COMBINED WITH PW NEAR 2 INCHES SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT WOULD SUPPORT SOME STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION IF CONVECTION GETS GOING. TEMPS MONDAY SHOULD STILL SHOW A BIT OF A GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND MID 80S TO THE SOUTHEAST. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... THE SHEAR AXIS MENTIONED ABOVE IS FORECAST TO STRETCH OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. HOWEVER...THE TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS...LEAVING CENTRAL NC SUSCEPTIBLE TO DISTURBANCES APPROACHING IN INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A MORE PROMINENT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...INITIALLY MORE PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. BEYOND FRIDAY...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN HOW QUICKLY THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US BUILDING EAST...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN US BY SATURDAY AND LESS CHANCE FOR COLD FRONT AND BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AIR THAT THE GFS HAD FAVORED. WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH...WITH SOME DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS POSSIBLE BASED ON TIMING OF CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. MULTIPLE AREAS OF RAIN AND AN ASSOCIATED COOL AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AREA ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY HEAVIER RAIN THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE LARGE AREAS OF RAIN...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH AREAS OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED. SUNDAY WILL START OFF WITH LOW CEILINGS IN THE LIFR/IFR RANGE. BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN NEAR KFAY AND KRWI WHERE BASES MAY LIFT TO THE HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR RANGE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG/MIST WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR PIEDMONT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY IMPROVE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON OR EVENING CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. -BLAES && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...BLAES
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 354 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-182000- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON- RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 354 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 125 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:28 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain caused around 15 to 20 roads to be closed across northern to northeastern Davidson County.
North Carolina Highway 68 was reported closed near Harrell Road due to flash flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 471183, 471184.