Hail in Kansas, August 17, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
357 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2013

...Updated for short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT AUG 17 2013

Upper level ridging over the Rockies and deep upper-level troughing
over the southern Mississippi Valley is resulting in northerly
mid to high level flow across western Kansas. The lack of low
level westerly downslope flow has kept high temperatures cooler
of late. Low level moisture continued to be plentiful with surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Elevated CAPE over 1000 j/kg,
low to mid level warm advection and mid level frontogenesis have
resulted in isolated thunderstorms this morning from Wakeeney
southward through Ford county and into extreme western Oklahoma. This
diurnally modulated activity will diminish after sunrise as the
low level jet weakens, leaving just some mid level cloud cover for
the remainder of the day. The cloudiness should keep Dodge City and
points east cooler today with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
More sun is expected in far southwest Kansas where temperatures
ought to reach into the lower 90s. Clear to partly cloudy skies
are expected tonight with south to southeast winds at 10 kts and
lows in the lower to middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SAT AUG 17 2013

The early part of the extended period will see the upper level ridge
move out of the Rockies over the northern and central High Plains.
This will bring somewhat warmer mid level temperatures back out over
western Kansas and allow daytime highs warm back toward seasonal
norms.

The medium range models are all tending to keep the upper level
ridge in place over the central part of the country through much of
the week. Toward next weekend, the models open up an upper level low
pressure system just off the west coast and lift it through the
northern Rockies into southern Canada. This tends to weaken the
upper level ridge over the central part of the country somewhat
which may allow better chances for thunderstorms especially out
toward the Colorado border. Given the isolated nature of any
thunderstorms, will leave the going dry forecast intact. The ECMWF
has been tending to bring an upper level disturbance westward over
the gulf coast states and then bring it back northward on the
backside of the upper high into the central plains. None of the
other models are doing this but it will have to be watched for next
weekend. Daytime high temperatures are generally forecast in the low
90s. Don't see temperatures spiking much higher than this given the
recent abundant rainfall and significantly greener vegetation across
southwest Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SAT AUG 17 2013

Isolated thunderstorms may affect KGCK/KDDC through 12z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist with southeast winds increasing
to 15 kts by 16z Saturday. If mid level cloud clears by 12z, then
some MVFR vsbys could briefly develop at KDDC/KGCK before daytime
heating commences.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  64  86  65 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  86  63  88  66 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  92  64  90  66 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  89  64  89  67 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  81  62  84  64 /  10   0   0   0
P28  81  62  85  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
438 AM CDT SAT AUG 17 2013

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-181130-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
438 AM CDT SAT AUG 17 2013 /338 AM MDT SAT AUG 17 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY 8 AM.
ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AS LARGE AS
QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

FINCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
410 AM CDT SAT AUG 17 2013

KSZ064-078-079-171000-
EDWARDS-FORD-HODGEMAN-
410 AM CDT SAT AUG 17 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HODGEMAN...NORTHERN FORD
AND WESTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES...

AT 405 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF HANSTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3791 9957 3789 9987 3825 9987 3826 9962
TIME...MOT...LOC 0910Z 350DEG 10KT 3819 9977

GERARD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
510 AM CDT SAT AUG 17 2013

KSZ086-087-171115-
MEADE-SEWARD-
510 AM CDT SAT AUG 17 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SEWARD AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEADE COUNTIES...

AT 508 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PLAINS CITY...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3699 10066 3729 10063 3732 10055 3701 10037
TIME...MOT...LOC 1010Z 346DEG 13KT 3726 10059

FINCH