Drought in New Mexico, November 1 to 30, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1133 PM MDT THU OCT 31 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY DECREASING.
LIGHT WINDS FORECAST FRIDAY.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MDT THU OCT 31 2013...
PRETTY QUIET WX OVERALL TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS PERSISTING
OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AND SOME WIND TO SPEAK OF JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. KCQC REMAINS PRETTY CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA SO
WILL LEAVE NPW INTACT UNTIL 7 PM. QUIET AND COOL NIGHT ON TAP AS
WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE. FRIDAY SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...THOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW EARLY NOV NORMALS. LESS WIND HOWEVER. RIDGING REMAINS ON TAP
FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES. UPPER LOW NOW
WELL OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA WILL GET NUDGED EASTWARD BY A
KICKER SYSTEM AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. AS IT DOES SO...SOME
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PULLED UP FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THOUGH MOST
OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE CWA...SOME SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT THE SW AND SC MTNS AND ADJACENT AREAS. ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGRESSIVE AT BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE ABQ CWA.

KICKER SYSTEM BECOMES A LARGE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT
SHARPER WITH ITS TROUGH AXIS...THOUGH IS NO LONGER CLOSING OFF THE
SYSTEM AND DIVING IT TOWARD THE NM BOOTHEEL. REGARDLESS...THE EC
CONTINUES TO BE MUCH WETTER FOR THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY PERIOD. THE
GFS IS FINALLY SHOWING SOME PRECIP...AND NOT JUST WIND...BUT
MINIMAL AT BEST. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LOOK TO BE SPLIT AS WELL
BETWEEN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND THE SHARPER EC. HOPING FOR
SOME MORE CLARITY WITH LATER MODEL RUNS...BUT FOR NOW...CONTINUED
OR EXPANDED SCHC OR CHC POPS FOR THE PERIOD. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY AMOUNTS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAT IT WILL TURN MUCH COLDER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS MAY BE IN THE OFFING FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK TO BE DRY...VIA BOTH MODELS...THUS HAVE
REMOVED/REDUCED POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

34

.FIRE WEATHER...
UMIDITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREDICTED THUS FAR. MOST
LIKELY DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. EITHER
WAY...SOME ADDITIONAL MIXING SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS AND THUS
HUMIDITY ACCORDINGLY. NOT LOOKING AT CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AS A RESULT OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP WHEN THE SUN GOES DOWN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HIGHER PEAKS/RIDGES AND TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MTNS DUE TO
MTN WAVE ACTION. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL LOWER TONIGHT BUT STILL BE
MODERATE TO GOOD.

LIGHTER OVERALL WIND FLOW FOR THE DAY PERIOD ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. WIND FLOW WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY
ALOFT. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
BUT NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR. HUMIDITY WILL LOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OR SO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES.
VENTILATION WILL LOWER PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE.

MODELS ARE STILL PAINTING A SIMILAR PICTURE AS FAR AS THIS WEEKEND.
A CUT OFF WAVE OFF THE BAJA WILL EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED INTO THE
NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH AND INCREASE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. BREEZIER CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO USHER IN THICKER CLOUD COVER. EITHER
WAY...VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY. STILL LOOKING
AT SOME POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WEST AND LARGE PORTIONS OF ZONE 102 OR THE NORTH CENTRAL
MTNS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INITIALLY LOWER ON SATURDAY DUE TO A WEAK
TO MODERATE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION OVERTAKING THE AREA. THIS DRIER
AIRMASS ALOFT WILL GET REPLACED BY A MORE MOIST ONE ON SUNDAY SO
SURFACE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE A FAIR BIT. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS REMAIN THE LEAST BULLISH N TERMS OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY.
THE NAM IS CLOSE BEHIND. THE ECMWF BRINGS UP A FEW SHOWERS FAVORING
THE SOUTH.

EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS IS
NOW DIGGING A DEEPER TROUGH AND IS MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF IS MOST BULLISH WITH A VIGOROUS TROUGH AND
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE CANADIAN IS SORT OF IN BETWEEN BUT
LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS SO
SOMETHING CERTAINLY TO NOTE. THE PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO BE BREEZY TO
WINDY SO THAT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE VENTILATION.

IT APPEARS THE FLOW TURNS DRIER WITH AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW ABOUT VENTILATION
BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME WEAK RIDGING WHICH WOULD ULTIMATELY
LOWER VALUES BUT DONT NECESSARILY SEE THEM FALLING OUT OF SIGHT.
PERHAPS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

52

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
757 AM MDT THU OCT 31 2013

NMZ501>540-011200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
757 AM MDT THU OCT 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTERNOON WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE SUMMITS...EASTERN SLOPES...AND
ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTS TO 50 MPH THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
SUPPORT HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALLS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...WITH SNOW COVERAGE EXPANDING AND SNOW LEVELS FALLING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND OVER THE
SUMMITS AND HIGHER SLOPES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. SNOW COVERAGE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT MEASURED WIND SPEEDS OR WIND
IMPACTS THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

SHY