NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 2, 6:47 PM EST, 1 hour 25 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 2, 6:47 PM EST, 1 hour 25 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
747 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS WILL VERY SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FORM
ALONG IT. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BUILD
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY OR FRIDAY. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH ONTARIO TONIGHT, SLOWLY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING TO OUR NORTH.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS DEVELOPING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE INTO
OUR AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND ARE MOVING PRETTY QUICKLY.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS THIS IS WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK. HOWEVER, WE
COULD STILL HAVE SOME SCATTERED THUNDER OVERNIGHT. WE DO HOWEVER
EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH, WE COULD HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK DURING THE NIGHT,
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TOWARD THE DAYBREAK HOURS MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA. PW VALUES REMAIN HIGH, SO
THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SHOWERS, AND ESPECIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING COULD PRODUCE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS, AND A
SMALLER POSSIBILITY OF HAIL. WE KEEP THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT DROP THE MENTION OVERNIGHT AS THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY IS LOST, BUT WE DO KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN EVEN MORE THAN WE PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. IN FACT, THE GFS EVEN DEVELOPS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DRAGS THROUGH OUR AREA. WITH THE FRONT
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND THE
AREA LONGER THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THEREFORE WE INCREASED POPS A
BIT AND KEPT IT IN LONGER THROUGH THE DAY. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY ON MONDAY, SO WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. UNTIL THE PW VALUES DROP, WE COULD STILL
GET SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WAS TAKEN, BUT IF THE CLOUDS DO
NOT CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH, HIGHS MONDAY MAY BE TOO HIGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS AT 850MB AND 925MB. WITH THE LATTER BOTH MODELS
BIAS WAS ON THE COLD SIDE. NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WITH
SOME RATHER PLEASANT WEATHER AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM THEN FOLLOWED
WITH SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
HARD TO TELL WHICH GFS SHORT WAVES MAY HAVE GRID SCALE ISSUES WITH
THIS 12Z RUN. ALSO THE GFS SEEMS TO BE EMPHASIZING MORE NORTHERN
STREAM THAN SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY (A GLFMEX SYSTEM?) AS BEING THE
TRIGGER FOR PCPN LATER IN THE WEEK. SO IN SPITE OF WHAT LOOKED LIKE
A GOOD INITIALIZATION, WE DID NOT GIVE THE GFS EXTRA WEIGHT THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.
STARTING WITH MON NGT, WITH THE LACK OF FCST WAA AND THE FCST MID
LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE EXITING EARLY, WE ARE CLOSER TO THE GFS THAN
THE WRF-NMMB WRT TO PCPN CHANCES IN THIS PERIOD. THE 12Z RUN EVEN
LOOKS SLOWER THAN THE SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN. LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST
EARLY. CONVECTIVELY IT DOES NOT APPEAR THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. THERE
SHOULD BE A BIT OF A GRADIENT AND WE DID NOT BOTTOM MIN TEMPS AND
WE BELIEVE A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE WORKS THE BEST.
THEN SOME SPECTACULAR WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AND A CHILLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. AIR MASS FCST TO BE TOO DRY ON TUESDAY TO EVEN
GENERATE CUMULUS CLOUDS. BY WEDNESDAY SOME CIRRUS FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM MIGHT ARRIVE. THESE ARE ONE OF THE GFS SHORT WAVES WE ARE NOT
THAT CONFIDENT ABOUT TRIGGERING IT. IT STILL SHOWS HOW DRY THE AIR
MASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THAT ALL WE WILL BE ABLE TO MUSTER ARE
HIGH CLOUDS.
A CHANNELIZED VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO BOTTOM AT THE BASE OF THE
500MB TROF JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT RIDGING
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY DAY BEFORE LEVELING ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FULL
SUN MACROS IN THIS AIR MASS HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABT 3-5F TOO HIGH, SO
USING THE SAME CORRECTION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS: NAM
MOS LOOKS BETTER ON TUESDAY AND GFS MOS LOOKS OK FOR WEDNESDAY.
WITH NO FCST RIDGING TO STOP IT, CLOUDINESS SHOULD START INCREASING
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINS SHOULD BOTTOM IN THIS AIR MASS THE NIGHT
BEFORE. MORE OF A BUMP UP IN OUTLYING THAN URBAN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE WE ARE NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNTING THE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY, IF SHOWERS ARRIVE EARLIER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT ITS BECAUSE OF
THIS ENERGY. KEEPING THURSDAY DRY IS NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT.
OTHER THAN BEING CONFIDENT ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL INTERACT AND THE DETAILS INVOLVED. FOR NOW ALL
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND THE
12Z OP ECMWF DOES SHOW MORE EARLIER PHASING OF THE STREAMS THAN THE
00Z RUN HAD. WE CARRIED THE HIGHEST POPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
CONVERSELY SUNDAY WE MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC HANGING ONTO PCPN
CHANCES. BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDINESS AND PCPN, WHILE IT SHOULD BECOME
MORE HUMID AGAIN WITH SOME MIN TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE, MAX TEMPS SHOULD
NOT SWAY FAR FROM AVERAGE AND WE WERE CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SCATTERED ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST,
AND EXITING THE AREA BY AROUND 03Z TONIGHT.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE TEMPORARILY REDUCED IN ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.
ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MOVE OUT, THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SHOWERS. THERE MAY
BE A CHANCE FOR SOME IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE ANYTHING BELOW MVFR IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARD THE COAST. MOST AREAS WILL START TO SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY, WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN TURN
MORE WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOME POCKETS OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG
POSSIBLE AT THE MORE RURAL TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE.
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG OR
HAZE IN THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE INCREASED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT CROSS INTO THE WATERS
UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY WAS MAINTAINED
AS WINDS COULD GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING. THE END
TIME OF 11 PM WILL REMAIN THE SAME AS WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
ON DELAWARE BAY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
ON THE OCEAN SWELLS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SHOULD
STILL BE LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN. THEN AS LONG AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NOT NORTH OR NORTHEAST (WHICH MIGHT
CAUSE MORE SWELL ISSUES), SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD
OCCUR INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE THEN STARTS TO WEAKEN ON
FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INCREASINGLY PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW MIGHT BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS (SWELLS) BACK TO
THE OCEAN WATERS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
TODAYS RIP CURRENT RISK IS FORECAST TO REACH A MODERATE RISK FOR
THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT BOTH THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE BEACHES.
ALSO, TODAY BEGINS RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK. EACH DAY THIS WEEK,
WE WILL ISSUE A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT DETAILING VARIOUS
CONCERNS FOR THOSE HEADED TO THE OCEAN WATERS THIS SEASON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
OUR ENSO SEASON HEADING INTO THIS SUMMER STAYED UNDER THE CPC
DEFINITION OF A FULL FLEDGED LA NINA. SO OUR SUMMER ANALOGS WILL
HAVE A DIFFERENT SET OF PREVIOUS SUMMERS THAN THE LAST TWO. IN SPITE
OF SOME CHILLY DAYS IN THERE, (MAYBE SURPRISINGLY) BOTH APRIL AND
MAY WERE UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN FOR THE FIFTH CONSECUTIVE SPRING.
BY LOCAL DEFINITION, THOSE MONTH'S AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HAVE TO FALL
IN THE TOP THIRD OF ALL MONTHS DATING BACK TO 1872. MAY CAME DOWN TO
THE WIRE. WHILE NEITHER MONTH WAS AS WARM AS SPRING 2012, THEY STILL
CRACKED THE TOP THIRD.
SINCE 1872, THIS COMBINATION HAS OCCURRED ONLY TWENTY-TWO TIMES, BUT
NOW TEN TIMES SINCE 1990. IT SHOULD BE NOTED (AS SOLAR CYCLISTS MIGHT
ALREADY), THE SUMMERS OF 1980, 1991 AND 2002 WERE ALL HOT SUMMERS IN
PHILADELPHIA. THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE IS NOT ON PAR WITH THOSE.
NEVERTHELESS, THIS ELEVEN YEAR CYCLE HAS SHOWN ITSELF IN THE ANALOGS.
BECAUSE WE HAVE NOTICED THAT SUMMERS PRIOR TO CPC'S ANALYSIS OF ENSO
CONDITIONS HAVE DRAGGED DOWN THE SKILL OF THESE SUMMER ANALOGS, WE
WILL STOP USING ANALOGS PRIOR TO THE SUMMER OF 1950. THIS ALSO
LEAVES A HOMOGENEOUS ENSO CLASSIFICATION (VS USING JMA
CLASSIFICATION PRIOR TO 1950).
FOR HOTTER OR WORSE, HERE ARE THE FIVE ANALOGS. THESE ARE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR PHILADELPHIA FOR
THE UPCOMING SUMMER FOLLOWING UNSEASONABLY WARM APRILS AND
MAYS WITH ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.
THE ONE DIFFERENCE WITH THIS ANALOG SET VS THE LAST COUPLE
OF SUMMERS IS THE BACK END HEAT FOR AUGUST. WHILE THE LAST
SEVERAL SUMMERS HAVE BEEN DOWNRIGHT HOT, AUGUST HAS BEEN THE
MONTH CLOSEST TO AVERAGE LEVELS.
YEAR JUNE AVG JULY AVG AUGUST AVG SUMMER AVG SUMMER PCPN
1959 72.2 75.9 76.5 74.9 16.49
1980 70.6 78.5 80.0 76.4 9.11
1991 75.7 79.0 79.0 77.9 12.01
1993 74.4 81.4 78.9 78.2 8.68
2004 71.8 76.3 75.0 74.4 16.65
AVG 72.9 78.2 77.9 76.4 12.59
1981-2010 NML 73.3 78.1 76.6 76.0 11.28
THE EXPERIMENTAL TWO CLASS SEASONAL OUTLOOK BY THE CPC FOR THIS
SUMMER HAS THE MOUNT HOLLY CWA WITH ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF IT BEING EITHER DRIER OR WETTER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431.
&&
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/MEOLA/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...