Hail in Nebraska, May 26 to 27, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
705 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO DELAY ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS
A BIT AS WE ARE WAITING FOR THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP. STILL A
GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

SPC OUTLOOKS TELL IT LIKE WE THINK. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS PLEASE
SEE DAY 1/2 OUTLOOKS.

BE SURE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST FROM THE SPC AND ALL STATEMENTS/WATCHES
/WARNINGS FROM THE NWS HASTINGS.

ALOFT: A POTENT PV ANOMALY/VORT MAX MOVED ONSHORE INTO OREGON TODAY
AND WAS PROGRESSING EWD. AT THE BASE OF THE WRN USA TROF...THE LFQ
OF A 90 KT ULJ STREAK WAS NOSING INTO CO. THIS PV ANOMALY WILL HEAD
ACROSS ID AND INTO MT BY 00Z/TUE. THE TAIL END OF THIS PV ANOMALY
WILL MOVE INTO WY/CO TOMORROW AFTN...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
STILL OVER THE DESERT SW. THIS SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT MON AFTN-EVE.

SFC: AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MCS ACTIVITY...A CLEARLY IDENTIFIABLE
FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE E THRU N-CNTRL NEB THEN SE
THRU E-CNTRL NEB THRU NRN MO. A LEE LOW WAS NEAR IML. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN CLOSE-BY TNGT-MON BUT BE MODULATED BY NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...PROBABLY BEING SHUNTED FURTHER S INTO THE FCST AREA. THE
PRIMARY LEE LOW IS FCST TO MOVE APPROACH WRN KS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS
COULD PRODUCE A BULGE IN THE DRYLINE...WITH THE CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. THIS COULD SPELL TROUBLE
GIVEN THE HELP ALOFT MENTIONED ABOVE.

WHILE WE MISSED LAST NGT/S MCS ACTIVITY...BELIEVE OBSERVATIONS ARE
SIGNALING AN MCS OVER NEB TNGT. EVEN MORE CONCERNING ARE THE
ASSOCIATED SIGNALS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

1) A WELL-DEFINED FRONT IS NOW ESTABLISHED.
2) THE APPROACHING EXIT REGION OF THE ULJ STREAK.
3) LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50 KTS.
4) 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE IS OVER WRN NEB/KS AND LLJ WITH STRENGTHEN
   ADVECTION.

NOW THRU SUNSET: P-M/SUNNY. COULD SEE A COUPLE SVR TSTMS DEVELOP.
NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE. FOR NOW AM
THINKING LOW. CINH IS ERODING AND MLCAPE IS 3000-4000 J/KG.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS.

SKYWARN: BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTN-EVE.

TNGT: THE 06Z AND 12Z HI-RES WRF RUNS ALL DEVELOP TSTMS OVER THE
PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE AND BUILD THEM UPSCALE INTO A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT TRACKS SE ALONG AND JUST N OF THE
FRONT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE SRN END FOR CELL TRAINING. I LIKE THE
LOOK OF THE GFS WHICH /LIKE FRI NGT/ HAS ITS QPF MUCH CLOSER TO THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ.

HVY RAIN: DEPENDENT ON CELL CONFIGURATION...A SWATH OF 2-3" OF +RA
IS POSSIBLE WITH AN ISOLATED 4" EMBEDDED SOMEWHERE WITHIN.

TOMORROW: A GOOD FCST HINGES ON WHAT OCCURS TNGT. TOUGH TO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE BUT GENERALLY FEELING IS WE/LL BE DEALING WITH THE
DEPARTING/DECAYING REMNANTS OF AN MCS. THEN IT/S A MATTER OF HOW
MUCH AND HOW QUICKLY CLEARING OCCURS. AGAIN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SVR TSTMS AFTER 4 PM...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MESOSCALE/SYNOPTIC
CONFIG ABOVE...IF IT HAPPENS AS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES  TO BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE WORKWEEK

SAME OLD...SAME OLD TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST. EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...PROVIDING THE
FORCING NEEDED TO HELP GENERATE CONVECTION FOR OUR AREA.  AT THE
SURFACE...THE PRIMARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STRETCH TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO THE SD/NEB STATE LINE PLACING US IN
THE WARM SECTOR. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXTENDING FROM NW WY SOUTH TO WESTERN KANSAS WITH A DRY LINE
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THERE. THE NAM IS SHOWING AN AREA OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WITH THIS WESTERN KS LOW THAT EXTENDS EAST AND NEAR THE
KS PART OF OUR CWA. NOT SEEING THIS FEATURE ON THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS MODEL BUT 12Z RUN HAS IT AS DOES THE LATEST EC.HOW THIS FEATURE
PANS OUT IN TERMS OF STRENGTH AND LOCATION WILL BE IMPORTANT TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY EVENING.

AS FAR AS THE FORECAST GOES...OFF AND ON THUNDERSTORMS STILL
EXPECTED AS VARIOUS MID LEVEL WAVES ROTATE THOUGH MON NIGHT THROUGH
WED.  FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY STILL
LOOKING LIKE DECENT SHOTS AT SEVERE WEATHER AS INSTABILITY
PROGGED TO BE GREATEST ON THOSE DAYS. TOUGH TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS VARIOUS MODELS DIFFER BUT ALL IN ALL LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHERE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE. ANY CAP ISSUES FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY WILL BE A MOOT POINT DURING MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE WESTERN KS LOW
PRESSURE/DRY LINE/POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT TO MOVE ENE INTO OUR CWA
DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE PRIMARY
THREAT...HOWEVER NAM IS SHOWING MORE VEERING IN THE PROFILE WITH AN
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR
TORNADOES. STILL TIME TO FINE TUNE THIS BUT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED ESPECIALLY WITH IT BEING A HOLIDAY.

SIMILAR SET UP FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
A BIT AND STARTING ITS EASTWARD TREK. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THE SAME REASONS NOTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE WED-FRI AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SEVERE CHANCES NOT QUITE AS CLEAR CUT AS
THEY ARE EARLIER IN THE WEEK BUT WOULD NOT RULE THEM OUT COMPLETELY.
PROGGED INSTABILITY NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.

EARLIER MODELS RUNS HAD DRY FORECAST FOR WEEKEND BUT THAT HAS
CHANGED AS WELL...AT LEAST IN SOME MODELS RUNS. WILL EXAMINE A FEW
MORE SOLUTIONS BEFORE MAKING CALL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

CEILING WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS TONIGHT. WIND MAY TEMPORARILY LULL EARLY IN THE
EVENING...BUT PICK BACK UP FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. GOOD SHOT
AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN A TIME FOR
NOW...AS CONVECTION HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS OF YET. VIS HAS A A GOOD
CHANCE OF BEING LESS THAN VFR TONIGHT WITH A THUNDERSTORM...BUT
TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...SO STICKING WITH VCTS WITHOUT VISBY
RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...HEINLEIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
354 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
272100-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
354 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE
OUTLOOK AREA AFTER 5 PM...WITH A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE MOVING
THROUGH PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL OF GOLF BALL SIZE AND GREATER...DAMAGING
WINDS OF 70 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF TWO OR THREE INCHES
WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...MAINLY AFTER DARK. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH 9 PM...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
LARGER...WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 60 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MEMORIAL DAY...PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...LOWLAND FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM IF HEAVY
RAINS FALL OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

HALBLAUB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
756 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

NEZ039-046-270145-
SHERMAN NE-VALLEY NE-
756 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN SHERMAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 754 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WESTERVILLE...OR 27 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ORD...
  ARCADIA...
  ELYRIA...
  FORT HARTSUFF STATE PARK...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4174 9876 4140 9891 4127 9920 4140 9922
      4173 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 240DEG 12KT 4139 9936

GUERRERO