A couple of distinct rounds of heavy rain during late February and mid-March caused rises along the region's rivers. Between March 14th and 18th, copious amounts of rain fell, with totals ranging from 1 to 2 inches.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A couple of distinct rounds of heavy rain during late February and mid-March caused rises along the region's rivers. Between March 14th and 18th, copious amounts of rain fell, with totals ranging from 1 to 2 inches. A few isolated thunderstorms pushed these rain amounts up to 3 inches. Minor flooding occurred along the St. Francis River and parts of the Mississippi River.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 14, 5:52 PM CST, 2 hours 8 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 652 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2013 OVERHAULED THE PUBLIC FORECAST TO CATCH UP TO THE SIGNIFICANT TRENDS IN THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE JUST AN HOUR OR SO OF REMAINING SLEET/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER PIKE AND SPENCER COUNTIES THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL STILL HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE WARM FRONT HAS NOT MADE IT AS FAR EAST AS OUR FORECAST AND ALL GUIDANCE EXPECTED...SO HAD TO WING IT TO CREATE A REASONABLY REPRESENTATIVE TREND THROUGH THE EVENING. THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT CHANGES REQUIRED THE FORECAST TO BE UPDATED THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND RESULTED IN COOLER LOWS IN MOST OF THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT LATER UPDATES WILL BE WARRANTED...SO STAY TUNED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2013 UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2013 THE MESOSCALE SHORTWAVE CLIPPERS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE EACH DAYS WEATHER...WITH THE ONE THIS AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM THE MID-DECK OF CLOUDS AND DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY. DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IMPLIED SURFACE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM NEW MADRID TO PIEDMONT MISSOURI AT 3 PM CDT...MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES /SLEET...SNOW...RAIN/ CONTINUE TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A LIGHT MIX IN THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-FIRST PERIOD /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/. ONCE THIS ELEVATED MCS /MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM/ MOVES OUT OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.. BASED ON PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE THIS WEEK...MODEL BIAS FOR EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN DISPLACED 60-90 NAUTICAL MILES TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE BAROCLINICITY WITH EACH OF THESE CLIPPERS HAS ALSO BEEN UNDERDONE. OF COURSE...THE THERMAL GRADIENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS HAS BEEN SMACK IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WFO PAH CWA...COMPLICATING THE TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION FORECAST. IN PREPARING FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SPATIALLY ADJUSTED SREF GUIDANCE FOR POP/WEATHER. THE SREF CONTINUES TO KEEP CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCES FOR INSTABILITY...SO KEPT A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE TRICKY PERIOD WILL SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS WARM SECTOR CAPPING WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MORNING...BUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND SHARPER GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE TIGHTENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...ENHANCING INSTABILITY ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. AN ATTEMPT WAS MADE TO BLEND THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION IS NOT ELEGANT...BUT PROVIDES A TREND FOR THE FORECAST AS THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AGAIN...GIVEN THE RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. AN INTERESTING SET OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THIS WEEK...TO SAY THE LEAST. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2013 STILL LOOKING FOR PERIODS OF OVERRUNNING CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION INTO ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY MONDAY AND WARM SECTOR PART OF THE AREA. RAISED POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SUPPORTED LARGELY BY PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY COME THROUGH MONDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF TO OUR NORTH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. STILL A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...OR AT LEAST STRONG STORMS MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE SE 1/2 OF THE AREA. PARAMETERS ARE NOT OFF THE CHARTS...BUT GIVEN FORECAST VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...CANNOT RULE OUT STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS OR HAIL. STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN GIVEN THE STORM SYSTEM IN QUESTION IS NOT EVEN ON SHORE YET. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE RADICALLY STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS US IN NW FLOW BY THE INFLUENCE OF AN H5 LOW OVER THE NE U.S. THE GFS IS FLATTER AND MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE MID CONUS. IT BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF ESSENTIALLY KEEPS IT DRY. ONLY HAVE SMALL POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...GIVEN BOTH MODELS ARE HOLDING ON TO THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE DIVERGENCE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS SUGGESTS SOME DECENT CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THERE IS NOTHING TO BE CONCERNED WITH. OF COURSE...THE ECMWF LATELY TENDS TO VERIFY SLIGHTLY BETTER THAT FAR OUT. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE USUALLY A BETTER GUIDE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2013 THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE KCGI/KPAH AREAS AND WILL SOON BE SOUTH OF THE KEVV/KOWB TERMINALS. GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR HOLDING FIRM...WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY...THEN CLEAR US OUT THIS EVENING. FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SSW WINDS TO PERSIST. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && UPDATE...DRS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 308 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2013 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-151000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 308 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MELT AS IT REACHES THE GROUND. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OR PART OF THE QUAD STATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ON MONDAY. JP/SMITH
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding occurred along the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau. Some low-lying fields were underwater.
Minor flooding occurred on the St. Francis River near Patterson. Some low-lying woods and fields were underwater, including state wildlife management land.
Minor flooding occurred on the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau. Some low-lying fields were underwater.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, March 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 435622, 435621, 435620.