Hail and Damaging Wind in Minnesota, June 15, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1036 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE POPS THIS MORNING TO INCREASE THEM
CONSIDERABLY TROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO ERN
MN AND WESTERN WI. THIS WAS BASED QUITE HEAVILY ON THE HRRR /WHICH
HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE MORNING/ AND THE 15.00 RUN OF
THE MPXWRF.

FRONT IS JUST NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN TERMS OF A
WIND SHIFT...BUT DEWPOINT DROP IS TRAILING THE WIND SHIFT BY A
GOOD 75+ MILES TO THE WEST. MESO ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING 500-1500
J/KG OF MLCAPE AT 15Z OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH CIN
BEGINNING TO DECREASE. THIS INSTABILITY/WEAK STABILITY AHEAD OF
THE DEWP DROP IS LIKELY WHY THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP
CONVECTION INITIATING WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z.

DO PUT SOME MORE STOCK IN THE HRRR IDEA...AS SHORTWAVE THAT HAS
GENERATED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER NW IA WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS MN...AND ALONG THE DEWP GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON PER THE RAP
AND 12Z NAM.

COUPLE OF LIMITING FACTORS FOR STORMS THOUGH IS THAT THE 12Z MPX
SOUNDING SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 750 MB /POSSIBLE
ENTRAINMENT ISSUES/...THE SAME SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED WEAK LAPSE
RATES FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB /IS THE RAP TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
ANALYZED INSTABILITY?/...AND CONVECTION OVER NW IA HAS DEPOSITED A
DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD OVER MN...LIMITING AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSOLATION
AND POSSIBLE DESTABILIZATION.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THAT IS LOOKING SMALL NOW THAT COMPLEX OVER
NW IOWA THAT BROUGHT SOME 60 MPH WINDS TO THE YANKTON AREA LOOKS
TO BE FOLLOWING THE 850-300MB THICKNESS LINES EAST ACROSS IOWA.
H85 WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL REMAIN WEAK UP HERE IN THE MPX
AREA...AND MASS FIELDS JUST DO NOT SEEM TO BE THERE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. WITH THAT SAID...IF WE DO SEE STORMS INITIATE...EXPECT
THEM TO BE OF THE SCT-BKN VARIETY WITH A COUPLE OF STORMS POSSIBLY
PULSING UP ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF HAIL/WIND THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STILL NOTED AT 0.5 REFLECTIVITY
AT THIS HOUR OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. LARGE
MCS WHICH FORMED DURING THE EVENING HOURS FROM FAR SOUTHERN MN
INTO IOWA AND NORTHERN MO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
FARIBAULT AND FREEBORN COUNTIES DUE TO LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE
QPF ANTICIPATED TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
IN ADDITION SATURATED SOIL PRESENT AFTER WEDNESDAY'S HEAVY RAIN
HAS HAD OVER 48 HOURS OF DRYING/LIMITED NEW RAINFALL EXPOSURE.
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS TO MUCH OF CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE NOTED ABOVE. HRRR PAINTING A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL MN TO EAST CENTRAL MN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI BY
19Z. ALTHOUGH VERY HEALTHY DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT AT THIS
TIME...BELIEVE HRRR IS OVER DOING INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ELIMINATE MOST RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD DECK BY 02Z OVER FA. A NICE COOL CRISP NIGHT ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND READING DIPPING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S MOST LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A WARM AND PRIMARILY DRY DAY...AS WESTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES IN ADVANCE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN/ONTARIO. MODELS HAVE EXHIBITED DECENT
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS
MN/WI LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/LIFT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 00Z
MONDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN...AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN
INCH RANGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FEATURE RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD PREVAIL...ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER.

AN EVEN WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RE-ENTER THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS LLVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION NOSE INTO THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED 30-40 POPS AT THIS POINT...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES PASS ACROSS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE
JET STRUCTURE SHOULD BE SUPPLYING DECENT DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE.
HAVE INCLUDED 50-60 POPS FROM 00Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...GIVEN
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 15.00Z ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PASS ACROSS THE TAF AREA TODAY. WHILE
PROGGED FORCING IS SHORT OF IMPRESSIVE AND MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING...TRENDS
IN SEVERAL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS...NAMELY THE HRRR AND HI-RES
ARW- WEST...WHICH PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS...INDICATE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AS FAR
NORTH AND WEST AS KRWF-KMSP AROUND 18-19Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WITH
A TEMPO FOR SHRA AT EASTERN SITES /KMSP-KRNH-KEAU/ THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH RESTRICTIONS SHOULD MOSTLY BE LOW-END VFR TO
HIGH-END MVFR. CLOUDS SCATTER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH POST-FRONTAL SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN ABOUT 12 KTS.

KMSP...
WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL SHRA/TS APPEARS TO LIE BETWEEN 18Z AND
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
VFR WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHRA/TS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY 15Z...THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY 17Z. SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS AND TSRA. NW WINDS 10KTS.
TUE...VFR. LGT AND VRB WINDS.
WED...VFR. S WINDS 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...LS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
809 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
161315-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
809 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY
AND EARLY TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

AFTER SEVERAL DRY DAYS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH FUTURE OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

RAH