Cold in Minnesota, December 28 to 30, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
605 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE INCOMING
WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...BLOWING SNOW IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS...FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS...ALONG WITH
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ACROSS NRN
BAYFIELD TO ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES.

WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...INCLUDING A WIND CHILL WARNING AND
ADVISORY...AND A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT BEGINNING
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

UPPER S/W CONTINUES TO TRACK EWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES EWD FROM ERN SD
THROUGH SRN MN. A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN MN INTO
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND HAS PHASED WITH THE SECONDARY E-W POLAR FRONT
LOCATED FURTHER TO THE NORTH EARLY TODAY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE
EWD INTO NRN WI THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NRN
EDGE OF THE LOW INTENSIFIES. MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF 3 INCHES ALONG THE BORDERLAND
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. THE GUSTY N/NE WINDS...AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VSBYS THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE OTHER
ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE COLD ARCTIC AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH...AND THE SUBSEQUENT WIND CHILL VALUES AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
OF NE MN...AS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE 35
TO 50 DEG BLO ZERO RANGE. LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVER
MUCH OF NRN WI TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABV AND BLO ZERO. DOUGLAS...WASHBURN AND BURNETT COUNTIES IN
FAR NW WI WILL SEE WIND CHILLS -20 TO -30...SO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THESE COUNTIES. MOST OF THESE EXTREME COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR VERY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MID
MORNING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WIND CHILLS/TEMPS
SUN AFTERNOON...AS WC VALUES RISE TO AROUND -25 TO -15.

THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND FAVORABLE NORTH/NE WINDS OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
AROUND 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN NRN BAYFIELD COUNTY...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMTS IN NRN ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES...UP TO 6 INCHES. THE
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF SLOWLY SUN AFTERNOON AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES
IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LES SHOWERS OVER THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER WITH SFC WINDS
SWITCHING FROM NNW TO SW WHICH WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT. VERY COLD
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE -20 TO -30F RANGE. MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARE LARGE FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON MONDAY AND ITS AFFECT ON THE FA. GFS IS FARTHEST N WITH
QPF...ECMWF A BIT FURTHER S...WHILE THE NAM/GEM KEEP QPF OUT OF THE
AREA ALTOGETHER. WENT WITH A BLEND WHICH MEANS SMALL POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FA. SOME LES STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE
BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND THE APOSTLE ISLANDS WITH A WLY FLOW. THIS
SYSTEM DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE SMALL POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIER FROM PINE COUNTY MN INTO NW WI...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...LES SHOWERS RETURN WITH A WNW FLOW. ARCTIC HIGH DRIFTS
INTO THE FA TUESDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD
MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH -20 TO -30F
COMMON. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER EVERYDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
DURING THE NIGHT...RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS DURING THE EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...AS DRIER AND MUCH COLDER ARCTIC
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL BE LARGELY VFR ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -14  -9 -24  -6 /  90  10   0  10
INL -28 -13 -30 -11 /  90   0   0  10
BRD -18  -9 -23  -3 /  80   0   0  20
HYR  -3   1 -24  -5 /  80  30   0  10
ASX   2   4 -17  -3 / 100  70  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
     MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR WIZ001-006-007.

LS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-143>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LSZ140>142.

&&

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
248 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-291130-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
248 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL OCCUR OVER
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE SNOW BELT REGION SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED.

ARCTIC AIR WILL PLOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WINDCHILL VALUES IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. A WIND CHILL WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
EXTREME NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGES FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS ON THE EXCESSIVE COLD AND SNOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY COLD AIR AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS
WILL AFFECT THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEK. IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WIND CHILL WARNING OR ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF THIS TIME. IT IS EXPECTED THAT SOME AREAS MAY NOT REACH
ABOVE ZERO FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SNOWFALL OBSERVERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LSZ121-140>148-291130-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
248 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS
AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE OR NEARSHORE FORECAST FOR SPECIFIC
INFORMATION ON WIND AND WAVE HEIGHTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. PLEASE MONITOR THE NEARSHORE FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

TENTINGER

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
615 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     SNOW             INTERNATIONAL FALLS     48.59N 93.41W
12/28/2013  M2.1 INCH        KOOCHICHING        MN   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            1.7 INCHES SINCE NOON.

&&

SGOHDE