A broken line of thunderstorms crossed northern Lake Michigan, producing isolated wind damage in northwest Lower Michigan.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
A broken line of thunderstorms crossed northern Lake Michigan, producing isolated wind damage in northwest Lower Michigan.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 8, 6:25 AM EST, 2 hours 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 725 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2013 THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT HAS FINALLY TURNED TEMPORARILY WETTER WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK WITH A WARNING TREND TO FOLLOW FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2013 CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY AND LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ACROSS WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUED TO FIRE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THE STORMS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME HOLDING TOGETHER INITIALLY...BUT CONTINUED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION...IN CONCERT WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO A GOOD CHUNK OF MAINLY NORTHERN LOWER THIS MORNING. THE UPDATES WILL REVOLVE AROUND LOCATION/STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF INCOMING PRECIPITATION...WHICH HAS BEEN SLOWED SOMEWHAT BY THE EROSION PROCESS OF THE LEADING EDGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING REMAIN THE ONLY THREATS WITH THE STORMS...SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL NOT EXPECTED AT ALL. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2013 CURRENTLY...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING IS OVERHEAD WITH A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE CROSSING WESTERN WISCONSIN/LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A SOUTHWARD SINKING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE STRAITS AND INTO FAR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING EAST...WITH VERY MUGGY AIR OUT AHEAD OF IT. SFC TDS THERE WERE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FIRE WITHIN THE BETTER H8 LLJ CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION FROM THE GTV BAY REGION BACK WESTWARD THROUGH GREEN BAY AND NE WISCONSIN. THIS CONVECTION IS OF COURSE BEING AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WERE DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT. CLOUDS WERE ALL OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH TEMPERATURES SLOW TO FALL...ESPECIALLY WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. READINGS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...AND THIS NOT CHANGING THROUGH THE MORNING. TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE H8 LLJ IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO DAYBREAK...BUT SAID SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. DEEPER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. BEST CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER NRN LOWER. BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK...MAYBE WEAKEN/BECOME LESS IN COVERAGE FOR A BIT...BUT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN WE GENERATE WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A PRETTY CLOUDY DAY ALL DAY. LOWERED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS...ONLY A 10 DEGREE INCREASE FROM WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW. WITH THESE VALUES...CAN FORESEE MAYBE UP TO 1000 MLCAPE...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 5.5C/KM...WET BULBS ABOVE 13KFT...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CONTINUING TO BE PRETTY WEAK AT 20KTS...ALL POINT TOWARD CONVECTION/WINDS NOT BEING STRONG ENOUGH FOR HAIL OR ANY SORT OF WIND...AND EVEN STORM ORGANIZATION. THE FACT THAT IT'S CLOUDY AND WE WILL NOT GENERATE THE ENTIRE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY LEADS TO A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY SORT OF SUN...IF IT CAN COME OUT TODAY. IF SO...THEN A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY AT LEAST THREATEN SOME SORT OF HAIL. MORE OF A CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH EITHER TRAINING ECHOES THIS MORNING..OR SLOW MOVING CELLS (WINDS WEAK THROUGH A PRETTY GOOD DEPTH)...AND PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.75". GET READY FOR A MUGGY DAY WITH SFC TD'S THE HIGHEST ALL YEAR...IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE...AS DEEP LAYER DRYING TAKES PLACE. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE TO EXIT EASTERN UPPER/NW LOWER WILL BE AROUND 18-19Z...AND NE LOWER MORE LIKE 21-22Z. WILL BUFFER THESE TIMES WITH SOME 30-40 PERCENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS AFTERWARD. MOST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER TRANQUIL. THAT SAID...NEWLY FALLEN/MUCH NEEDED RAINS WITH STRIPPED OUT MOISTURE ALOFT/GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER WET GROUND/POTENTIALLY WET BL MOISTURE...ALL SCREAM FOR AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS. THE EXTENT/LOCATION OF STRATUS IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE RIGHT NOW...BUT SEEING CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE MORNING SHOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE. LOWS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2013 WELL AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS SAW A LITTLE RAINFALL SUNDAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA LIKELY RECEIVING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN TODAY. WE ARE THEN KEEPING OUR FINGERS CROSSED FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE ROLLING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND THE APPROACH OF A BONA-FIDE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE. HOWEVER...AM A LITTLE LEARY GIVEN OUR RECENT STRING OF DRY DAYS...BUT HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE GROWS. ANOTHER AWESOME STRETCH OF WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN LONG TERM FOCUS IS ON POPS THROUGH MIDWEEK. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ROLLING OUT OF WISCONSIN INTO THE REGION. SO EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SPREADING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AT NIGHT. LOOKING AT SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS...THE REGION IS IN THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KNOTS AND SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. SO THERE WILL BE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LEADING TO THE QUESTION OF WHETHER WE COULD GET SOME DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY WILL BE UP AGAINST DECENT DRY AIR ADVECTION (MEAN 1000-500 MB RH FALLS TO ABOUT 40 PERCENT OR SO)...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY BUT FAIRLY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED (MEAN 1000-500 MB RH 40 TO 50 PERCENT) WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT POSSIBLE DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN SHOWERS TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT LEADING TO ANOTHER PLEASANT AND INCREASINGLY WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH THEN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2013 A DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL TEMPORARILY BECOME MVFR WITHIN RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THE MVFR FOR NW LOWER...BUT THIS WIDER SPREAD AREA OF RAIN MAY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TRYING TO DEVELOP. THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF SAID STORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT WE GET ANY SUNSHINE/DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL TODAY...SO STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOWERED CIGS ARE THE MAIN REASONS FOR THE MVFR. WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING. SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS...EXCEPT IN STRONGER STORMS WHERE GUSTIER ERRATIC WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. NO STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH. CLEARING ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT RAINS WILL BRING AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. THE EXTENT AND IMPACT OF REDUCED VSBYS ARE TOO DIFFICULT TO DISCERN...BUT IFR/LIFR VSBYS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2013 A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SINKING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH THE STRAITS AND INTO NRN LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN IS TRACKING EAST. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS...AND HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER THIS TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. THIS WILL RESULT IN ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS...BUT NOTHING TOO DRAMATIC AS FAR AS SPEEDS...DUE TO WEAK WINDS ALOFT. ANY STRONGER CELL HOWEVER CAN PRODUCE DANGEROUS WINDS AND LIGHTNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT TREND OUT OF THE SOUTH BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT BLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PRESQUE ISLE AND POSSIBLY IN WHITEFISH BAY AND THE ST MARYS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND THE STABILITY GETS KNOCKED DOWN. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WEAKENS INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && UPDATE...SD SYNOPSIS...AS SHORT TERM...SD LONG TERM...AS AVIATION...SD MARINE...SD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 445 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2013 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042- 091145- STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT- STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY- SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG- SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT- MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA- MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM- OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO- GLADWIN-ARENAC- 445 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR PERIODICALLY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION...BUT MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL OTHER AREAS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT OVER ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AND IT'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER. LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND POSSIBLY EARLY THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. && FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/APX. SMD
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 62 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:41 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Numerous trees were downed, one roof had shingles removed, and an awning was ripped off of a camper trailer.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 472682.