Tornado in Maryland, July 22, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1150 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY FROM THE
MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND REMAIN NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS OF 1045 PM.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGEST STORMS/HEAVIEST RAINFALL ALREADY FELL WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY AS OF 03Z WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE BALTIMORE
AND DC METRO AREAS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. LOCALIZED FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY 06Z...FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. ANY CLEARING WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT UPR 60S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW TO MID 70S EAST.

ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHS IN
THE 80S MOST LOCALES TO NEAR 90 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ATYPICAL SUMMER-TIME PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. AFTER THE FIRST UPPER VORT LOBE SLIPS BY TO THE NORTH
MON/TUE...ANOTHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND IT TAKE A FEW MORE
DAYS TO DRIFT TOWARD THE ATLC COAST. THE MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP US IN GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN FOR THESE
FEW DAYS...WHICH IS A GOOD 10 DEG COOLER FOR MAX TEMPS NEARLY EACH
DAY. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND THE M-U60S W/ PERIODS
OF L70S BUT STILL NOT AS MUGGY AND HOT AS THIS PAST WEEK.

IN TERMS OF FORECAST TRENDS...THIS TYPE OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MORE
COMMONLY ASSOCIATED W/ THE TRANSITIONAL SEASONS...IS BEING RESOLVED
WELL BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT NEAR AND LONG TERM MODELS...ESPECIALLY W/
THE MID WEEK TRANSLATION BETWEEN OUTGOING AND INCOMING UPPER WAVE
FEATURES. NAM/EURO AND BASICALLY ALL BUT THE GFS'S LATEST RUNS
DEPICT A MINOR SHORTWAVE GETTING CAUGHT NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA GOING FROM WED INTO THU. THIS FEATURE IS THEN DEPICTED AS
DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW ABOUT THE CWA WHICH WRAPS ITS OWN BATCHES OF
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AROUND IT.

AFTER CUTTING DOWN ON POPS QUITE A BIT ON WED...W/ THE LARGER
SUBSIDENCE REGION OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING SWD OVER OUR
AREA...THU HAS THE CHANCE TO BE THE COOLER/WETTER DAY OF THIS LATE
WEEK PERIOD. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS FEATURE ACTS AND REACTS TO
CONTINUAL INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES - IT
MAY CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA INTO FRI OR BEGIN THE TREK OFF
THE MID ATLC COAST. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY BY FRI
MRNG.

AFTER THE GFS/EURO DIVERGE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEY
LARGELY COME BACK TOGETHER FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER PIECE OF THE
UPPER WAVE'S ENERGY WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
WEEKEND...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DEPENDENCIES...AND SLIDE A MORE
POTENT AND PRECIP-LADEN SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE MID ATLC. CAN SEE THIS
PROG CHANGING QUITE A BIT W/ EVEN A MINOR SWING IN GUIDANCE...SO
KEPT A LOW POP ON SAT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL TRACK EAST AND IMPACT
DCA/IAD/BWI/MTN. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
TO EXIT NE/E MD BY 06Z. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

APPROACHING CDFNT WL LEAD TO MORE TSRA TUE.

MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER WED...W/ ONLY A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISLD TSTM. THE SAME HOLDS THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STRONGER WX FEATURES WILL PASS BY
TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH WE'LL STILL HAVE A
MARGINALLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS - ENOUGH TO KEEP IN THE LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR AN OUTSIDE SHOWER/TSTM. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ORGANIZED PRECIP AND BREEZIER LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE THE COMING
WEEKEND W/ THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A SMALLER-SCALE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST ABOVE 30KTS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 10-15KTS EXPECTED
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

WLY FLOW BEGINS TUE NGT AS A CDNFT MAKES IT TO THE WATERS. STILL
DONT XPCT WNDS OUTSIDE OF TSRA TO BE MUCH ABV 10 KT...BUT IT WL BE
A LTL HIER THAN TDA.

WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT WX FEATURE TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE WEEKEND MAY RESULT IN SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS
BUT STILL BELOW SCA W/ ONLY SOME LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY UP TO BALTIMORE. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING CONTINUES TO
PUSH WATER LEVELS ABOVE NORMAL. PROJECTED HIGH TIDE CYCLES EXCEED
MINOR THRESHOLDS AND MINOR INUNDATION IS EXPECTED AT VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS. PEAK IMPACT IS THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST
DURING TUESDAY WHICH WILL HELP LOWER WATER LEVELS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ011-014-
     017-018.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HTS
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ/KRW
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...GMS/KRW
MARINE...GMS/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1142 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
230945-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
1142 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY OVERNIGHT. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-230945-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
1142 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE METRO AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ANY
REPORTS OF FLOODING WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1208 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1201 AM     HAIL             BEL AIR                 39.53N  76.35W
07/23/2013  E0.75 INCH       HARFORD            MD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OFF DUTY LAW ENFOREMENT REPORTING DIME SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1300692

HTS