Winter Weather in Maryland, February 8, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
953 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVE NORTH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 02Z...THE TWO APPROACHING SYSTEMS...ONE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...AND THE OTHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES...CONTINUE ON A
CONVERGENT COURSE /THE OUTCOME WILL BE THE BLIZZARD EXPECTED FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW NIGHT/.

PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN SYSTEM. BRIGHT
BANDING IS APPARENT ACROSS SRN VA DUE TO MELTING SNOW THROUGH THE
LOWER LAYERS. AS OF NOW A CHILLY RAIN IS FALLING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH SNOW REPORTED AT BLACKSBURG AND ROANOKE DESPITE SFC
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. A SNOW/SLEET MIX IS EXPECTED BALT-WASH METRO
AND SOUTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN ADDED TO THE MIX
/HENCE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/ FOR NRN AND WESTERN
SUBURBS...DOWN THE BLUE RIDGE...AND WEST FROM THERE. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AREAS WEST OF THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY DRY TONIGHT...THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE ON
RIDGELINES OUT THERE.

WITH NELY FLOW IN THE WEDGE/CAD ALLOWING COLD AIR TO DRAIN IN...
DECIDED TO ADD MONTGOMERY AND HOWARD COUNTIES INTO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE OBS AND SEE IF THE STRENGTHENING WEDGE WILL
ALLOW OTHER AREAS TO HAVE FREEZING PRECIP. STAY TUNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RAIN/MIX LINE WILL SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING...PERHAPS
HOLDING ON FOR N-CNTRL MD.

AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE COAST...WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN NE MARYLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE
BRISK NW WINDS AND DRY WEATHER. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE ALLEGANY HIGHLANDS...MODEL QPF DOES NOT SUPPORT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BOMB OFF THE NJ/SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST FRI NGT AS BOTH PIECES OF ENERGY PHASE. DPVA AND DOWNSTREAM
PROGRESSION OF THE DRY SLOT WILL END PRECIP CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS
FRI NGT. TWO EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT AND NERN MD. ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...NW
FLOW WILL TRANSPORT GREAT LAKES MOISTURE TOWARD THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WHILE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. FCST CALLS FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FRI NGT. A
WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE OTHER
AREA THAT MAY SEE SNOW FRI NGT WILL BE NERN MD. AS THIS SYSTEM
OCCLUDES...MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
A BAND OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW DURING THE EVE. WHILE
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE BAND
SETS UP...12Z NAM/GFS INDICATE THIS MAY IMPACT NERN MD.

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIPRES OVER
THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS FRI NGT AND SAT. STEEP LAPSE
RATES SUPPLIED BY CAA WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF
WINDS ALOFT. GIVEN 40-50 KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER...A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AREA. THE HIGH ELEVATION RIDGE
TOPS WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SAT AFTN AS HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE COASTAL STORM MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. SFC HIPRES/UPPER
RIDGE OVRHD SAT NGT AND SUN. MAX TEMPS 5-10F BELOW NORMAL SAT WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIPRES IS FCST TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUN NGT AS AN ORGANIZED LOW
MOVES NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BROAD SLY FLOW IN BETWEEN BOTH
SYSTEMS WILL DRAW WARM/MOIST AIR UP THE ERN SEABOARD. MOST GUIDANCE
PRINTS OUT LIGHT QPF LATE SUN NGT INTO MON. WHILE TEMPS ALOFT
QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING PRIOR PRECIP STARTING...A WEDGE OF COLD
AIR AT THE SFC WILL TAKE LONGER TO ERODE. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SETUP AT THE ONSET BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THE DAY MON. IN-SITU CAD MAY DEVELOP MON AND LAST LONGER
THAN MODELS INDICATE...SO COLDER TEMPS AND CLOUDIER CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST ERY NEXT WEEK.

FCST UNCERTAINTY DECREASES CONSIDERABLY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A WAVE OF LOPRES DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKE THE 12Z GFS AND SOME ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT NE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
FROZEN PRECIPITATION...WILL TURN TO ALL RAINFALL AFTER 12Z OR SO.
1-3SM IFR -SHRA BR CONTINUES UNTIL 18Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT
IAD AND DCA TO MVFR BKN AFT 18Z. IFR 1SM -SHSN MAY CONTINUE AT BWI
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE COASTAL LOW DEPARTS...N-NW WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN FRI AFTN THRU SAT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT. CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FRI AFTN AND EVE AS THE NW FLOW DRIES
THE LLVLS.

THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST FRI NGT. NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACCORDINGLY WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE FRI NGT AND SAT MRNG. A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR 40 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FRI
NGT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THE BAND FORMS....BUT IT
MAY DEVELOP CLOSE TO BWI/MTN. IF IT DOES IMPACT THESE TERMINALS...
THEN A PERIOD OF LOW VSBYS IN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

HIPRES BUILDS IN THIS WEEKEND...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS. A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SANDY PT SOUTHWARD INCLUDING INLETS/PAX RIVER/MOUTH
OF THE PTMC RIVER. THE WINDIEST TIME WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

GALE WRNG IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS FRI NGT. NW WINDS GUSTS 30-40 KT
OVER THE WATERS. THE GALE WRNG MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SAT
MRNG FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OTHERWISE
ON SAT AND SAT NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOPRES MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SUSTAINED EASTERLY FLOW MAY CAUSE 1 TO 2 FOOT
ANOMALIES FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
CAUSE BATTERING WIND WAVES. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
BRING WATER LEVELS DOWN FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MDZ003>007-009>011-501-502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     VAZ028-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-036>040-042-501-503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     WVZ050>053-503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ055-501-
     502-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BAJ/BJL
NEAR TERM...BAJ/BJL
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...JRK
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/HTS
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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