Tornadoes and Hail in Louisiana, February 24 to 25, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
713 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT FORECASTS/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THIS
EVENING TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED BASED ON CONVENTIONAL
RADAR DATA FROM SLIDELL AND DUAL POL PRODUCTS FROM LAKE CHARLES
WHICH HAVE BOTH INDICATED STRONG HAIL SIGNATURES...SOME LARGER
THAN GOLFBALL SIZE. MAIN HAIL CORES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY OVER
UNPOPULATED MARSH/SWAMP AREAS...BUT THAT MAY CHANGE AS THE STORMS
AFFECT MORE INLAND/POPULATED AREAS. HAIL THREAT MAY CONTINUE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT HAVE EMPHASIZED THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION CAN FORM NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES
INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL SECTIONS. ANY STORMS NEAR
THE WARM FRONT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT...SOMEWHAT AT THE AIRPORTS...BUT ESPECIALLY SO FOR ANY
FLIGHT PATHS/ROUTES THROUGH THE TSRA AREAS THIS EVENING. THERE MAY
BE A LULL IN TSRA ACTIVITY AT SOME POINT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA...SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THIS EVENINGS FLIGHT. THE SKY WAS OVERCAST AT
RELEASE WITH A LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS NEAR 4K FEET. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED FROM NEAR 038K FEET THROUGH JUST ABOVE 7K FEET. DRY AIR
IS IN PLACE ABOVE 10K FEET. MOISTURE RETURNS NEAR 18K FEET. THE PW
VALUE IS AT 1.27 INCHES. LOW LEVEL WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE
EASTERLY THROUGH 3K FEET. THE WINDS ABOVE 3K FEET VEER AND ARE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT. MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH 5K FEET ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15KTS. THE WINDS ARE
100KTS OR MORE FROM 29K FEET AND ABOVE. THERE IS A JET MAX OF
120KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 37K FEET. WITH THE ADVANCES WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE FOLLOWING SEVERE WEATHER INDICES
FROM THIS EVENINGS FLIGHT...THE TOTAL TOTAL INDICE OF 55 INDICATES
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...K-INDEX OF 29 INDICATES
MODERATE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SWEAT INDEX OF 333 INDICATES THAT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. WET-BULB ZERO IS AROUND 9900 FEET
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR HAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013/

..FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 36
HOURS...

SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. OVERALL
IT WAS A QUIET DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES EARLY AND THEN CLOUDS QUICKLY
STREAMED NORTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA HAS ALREADY LED TO LGT SHRA
BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE COAST AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS GOING TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND ELEVATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. WARM FRONT IS ON THE MOVE NOW AND AS OUR STORMS
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE SRN PLAINS OVER NIGHT THE SFC LOW OVER NRN
TEXAS WILL DEEPEN AND DRAW THE WARM FRONT NORTH QUICKLY. BY 12Z THE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BE OVER THE 10/12 CORRIDOR WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO EVEN STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH AN INCREASING LL JET AND H85 THETA E
VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 330K. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD BE QUITE EFFICIENT.
OVERALL 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE MORE OF
THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HEIGHTS WILL DROP OVERNIGHT WITH H5 TEMPS DROPPING
TO NEAR 15-16C...VT WILL BE NEAR 29...AND WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS COULD
DROP TO NEAR 9K FT AROUND SUNRISE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM OVER NIGHT ALONG WITH
CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING. SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
INITIALLY BUT AFT 10Z WHEN THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED MORE INLAND
THERE IS THE RISK THAT SFC BASED CONVENTION COULD DEVELOP RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND PROVIDE A DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO RISK. THIS IS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BUT IS A CONCERN.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW WE MAY SEE A TEMPORARY BREAK AS THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THE
MID LEVEL LOW WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY
AND BEGIN TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG HRS.
AT THE SFC THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AND
EVNG AS IT MOVES INTO THE OZARKS. BOTH THE DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW
AND THE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO COLD FRONT TO ACCELERATE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA BUT HOW
WIDESPREAD IS A GOOD QUESTION. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES FURTHER NORTH
INTO MS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL MOVE INTO THE WARM SECTOR. LIFT WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR
WITH A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD PUSH WEST FAST ENOUGH TO BRING CONVECTION TO AN END
TOMORROW EVNG BUT WILL HOLD ONTO SOME RAIN CHANCE OVERNIGHT IN CASE
THINGS SLOW DOWN A TAD.

AS FOR THE SEVERE ASPECT THINGS COULD BE QUITE ACTIVE TOMORROW.
THINGS LOOK LIKE THEY AREA LINING UP FOR A POSSIBLE OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. THE DYNAMICS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE WITH A TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...H5 WINDS INCREASING TO 75KTS(100 KT MAX
BACK IN SE TX) AND POSSIBLY MOVING UNDER THE LFQ OF A 130KT JET AT
H25. THE SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE
SPEED SHEAR THAN DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALTHOUGH THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
HAS INCREASED AND THE BELIEF IS THE MODELS ARE UNDER DOING THE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE ONLY INDICATING MAX
0-3KM SRH NEAR 250 M2/S2 BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 70KTS.
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY LL WINDS COULD BACK MORE THAN
WHAT THE MODELS ARE FCSTING AND THIS WOULD INCREASE THE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THIS SYSTEM THAN PREVIOUS FEW IS
THE THERMODYNAMICS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY IN
THE WARM SECTOR. LL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. COMBINE THAT
WITH A STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRIMED.
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR 7 C/KM...ML CAPE WILL APPROACH 1200
J/KG...AND SHOWALTERS WILL PEAK OUT AT -5 TO -6C.

SO WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING ALONG WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. THE QUESTION IS CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE. WE ARE EXPECTING SCT-NUM CONVECTION IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND THESE STORMS WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO PRODUCE
TORNADOES BUT IF THE SHEAR IS GREATER AS ANTICIPATED THAN THE
TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE IN THESE DISCRETE CELLS.

AS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN ASPECT...PWS WILL INCREASE TO 1.4 TO MAYBE 1.7
AND WITH THAT ANY TSRA WILL BE ABLE TO DROP A GOOD BIT OF RAIN IN A
SHORT TIME. ADD THIS TO THE RAIN OVERNIGHT AND STORM TOTALS COULD
RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNT NEAR 6 OR MORE.

ALL ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN DURING THE EVNG HRS AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IF NOT EARLIER. /CAB/

LONG TERM...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THINGS RATHER
QUIET AFTER OUR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL
DOWN LATE THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...FIRST HARD FREEZE
MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR AS WE MOVE INTO MARCH. PREVIOUS LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FCST HAS BEEN APPENDED. /CAB/

WAVE/LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
OR OVER THE PLAINS WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MAINTAIN LOWERED THICKNESS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION NEXT WEEKEND
AND FREEZES MAY OCCUR FOR A GOOD DEAL OF THE LAND FORECAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. /FZ/

MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM NOW AND REMAIN HAZARDOUS
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. SFC LOW IN NRN TX WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND THIS IS ALREADY LEADING TO WINDS INCREASING
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ONCE THE WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH
WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP AND COULD BECOME SUSTAINED AROUND
25-30KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND
SCY IS OUT FOR ALL ZONES. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MON
AFTN/EVNG WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE WEST AND THEN NW AND
COULD EVEN APPROACH GALE CRITERIA. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE OPEN WATERS AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
TO IMPROVE LATE TUE.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...YELLOW
DEPLOYED...NONE
ACTIVATION...NONE
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  55  75  42  58 /  80  90  40  10
BTR  59  78  45  62 /  90  90  30  10
ASD  60  76  47  62 / 100 100  50  10
MSY  60  78  50  60 /  90  90  40  10
GPT  60  74  49  63 / 100  90  60  10
PQL  58  75  52  65 /  90  90  70  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JOHN THE
     BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND WASHINGTON.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...AND WALTHALL.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
620 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-251230-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
620 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
AND SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS
WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZE. AFTER 4 AM...A WARM FRONT WILL START TO MOVE INLAND ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR OR
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES OR
WATERSPOUTS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE REPEAT HEAVY
RAIN OCCURS...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT.

MULTIPLE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA.
REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR ONGOING
FLOODING AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

22/TD

LAZ059-065>067-250000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
501 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST AFFECTING UPPER TERREBONNE
PARISH...UPPER LAFOURCHE PARISH...LOWER LAFOURCHE PARISH...LOWER
TERREBONNE PARISH...

AT 500 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 20 MILES SOUTH OF HOUMA...OR ABOUT 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DULAC...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...COCODRIE...
LUMCON CENTER BUOY...DULAC...CHAUVIN...MONTEGUT...HOUMA...RACELAND...
MATHEWS...LOCKPORT AND LAROSE

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND PEA TO
DIME SIZE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAZ058>060-065-250045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
600 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AFFECTING UPPER
TERREBONNE PARISH...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH...UPPER LAFOURCHE
PARISH...ST. CHARLES PARISH...

AT 556 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR HOUMA...OR ABOUT 6 MILES EAST OF
BAYOU CANE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...LOCKPORT...MATHEWS...RACELAND...DES ALLEMANDS...NEW SARPY...
HAHNVILLE...EDGARD...DESTREHAN AND BOUTTE

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SUB
SEVERE HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MSZ081-082-250130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
622 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST AFFECTING JACKSON COUNTY...
HARRISON COUNTY...

AT 619 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BAY ST. LOUIS...OR ABOUT 10
MILES SOUTH OF PASS CHRISTIAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...PASS
CHRISTIAN...LONG BEACH...GULFPORT...GULFPORT AIRPORT...LYMAN AND
BILOXI

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SUB
SEVERE HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAZ050-058-060-072-250145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
653 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTH AFFECTING ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST
PARISH...LIVINGSTON PARISH...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH...ST. CHARLES
PARISH...

AT 651 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RESERVE...OR ABOUT OVER EDGARD...MOVING
NORTH AT 25 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
GARYVILLE...RESERVE...LAPLACE...KILLIAN...SPRINGFIELD AND PONCHATOULA

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SUB
SEVERE HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAZ046>048-250145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
654 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST AFFECTING WEST BATON ROUGE
PARISH...EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH...IBERVILLE PARISH...

AT 651 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PLAQUEMINE...OR ABOUT 4
MILES SOUTH OF BAYOU SORREL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...BAYOU
SORREL...PLAQUEMINE...ADDIS...WESTMINSTER...PORT ALLEN...OAK HILLS
PLACE...GARDERE AND BRUSLY

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SUB
SEVERE HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.