Flood in Kentucky, May 1 to 2, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
122 AM EDT WED MAY 01 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Wed May 1 2013

Current forecast remains in good shape.  Did a quick grid update
just to update the hourly T/Td to better capture the ridge/valley
splits in the observed data.

Update issued at 941 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2013

No changes planned to the forecast tonight. Did update some current
T/Td and sky cover trends, albeit minor. Some very thin cirrus will
continue to skirt across south central Kentucky although wording
will stay mostly clear. A look at the latest KY Mesonet and
surrounding obs shows that some of the typical cool spots are
falling off rapidly, and are already in the lower 60s. Previous
forecast had this handled nicely as these areas head toward the
lower 50s by dawn. May even be able to squeak out an eastern valley
or two around 50. Still expect a few river valleys to have patchy
fog around dawn.

&&

.Short Term (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2013

High pressure will remain in control through Wednesday night, as a
trough deepens across the Rockies. The Ohio Valley will experience
dry conditions, light southeast winds, and mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies. Temperatures in the middle 70s to lower 80s this
afternoon will cool to roughly the middle 50s tonight. Could see
some light, patchy fog in normally fog-prone valleys once again.
Expect another warm day Wednesday, with a few more clouds and highs
reaching the lower 80s. Temperatures Wednesday night will range from
mid 50s in the east to right around 60 degrees across our west.

As high pressure shifts a little more to the east Wednesday, the cap
aloft will weaken slightly. There could be a few diurnally-driven
showers and thunderstorms develop across the higher terrain to our
southeast Wednesday afternoon. Think these will be isolated and do
not appear to make it to our area, as moisture is limited and the
cap should hold across our forecast area. A southern stream system
moving east along the Gulf Coast will keep deeper moisture confined
to the south.

.Long Term (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2013

Amplified blocking ridge over the eastern Great Lakes will keep the
warm and mostly dry pattern going through Thursday. As expected,
this forecast will slow down the previously advertised evolution,
limiting POPs to slight chance well to the west of I-65.

By Thursday night a healthy moisture feed will become established
over the Mississippi Valley as a deepening upper low closes off
somewhere over the Plains. The modest low-level jetting could get
far enough east to warrant low chance POPs over our western
counties.

By Friday the models start to diverge as the GFS digs the low south
into Oklahoma, while the ECMWF has the upper low over the eastern
Dakotas. Both agree on a feed of Gulf moisture and an inverted
surface trough extending into the Ohio Valley, but the ECMWF is a
better setup for precip over central Kentucky whereas the GFS would
draw more of that moisture westward into the Mississippi Valley.
Will continue to lean toward the ECMWF solution with chance POPs and
daytime temps near normal, but confidence remains low. Will continue
the unsettled pattern into Saturday with moist southerly flow,
regardless of the eventual breakdown of the blocked pattern.

Latter half of the weekend shows two completely different ideas for
dislodging the block. GFS shows a bowling-ball scenario with the low
moving east across the Tennessee Valley, while the ECMWF shunts the
low northward toward Hudson Bay. Not enough confidence to make
substantial changes to the forecast at this time. Will keep mostly
diurnal low-end chance POPs in, with temps near or above normal by
night and slightly below normal by day.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Wed May 1 2013

Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions are expected throughout the
upcoming TAF period as high pressure remains firmly in control of
our weather.  Some late night patchy fog is still likely but will
mainly be limited to the river valleys.  Mostly sunny skies are
expected later today with a light southeast surface wind flow.
Probably will also see a few-scattered deck around 5kft AGL later
this morning and into the afternoon hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Update...........MJ
Short Term.......MJP
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
950 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-020200-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
950 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2013 /850 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

BJS/RAS