A line of thunderstorms progressed across eastern Kentucky during the morning hours of March 18th. A prolonged period of rainfall then fell behind the storms.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A line of thunderstorms progressed across eastern Kentucky during the morning hours of March 18th. A prolonged period of rainfall then fell behind the storms. Rainfall amounts ranged from 1 to 2 inches in most areas, however, a stripe of 2 to 3 inches occurred along I-64 in Montgomery, Bath and Rowan Counties were some flooding was observed.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 18, 6:04 AM EST, 56 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 704 AM EDT MON MAR 18 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 704 AM EDT MON MAR 18 2013 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ARRIVED INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA A BIT QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED AS A FEW DISCRETE CELLS FORMED IN FRONT OF THE MAIN LINE AT THIS POINT STILL WEST OF I-75. UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR THIS. THIS DID NOT CHANGE THE TEXT OF THE ZFP SO WILL LET THE CURRENT ZFP RIDE. OTHERWISE THINGS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. A BIT OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY HELPED IN FORMING A FEW CELLS THAT PUT DOWN SOME SMALL HAIL BUT OVERALL...THE SURFACE IS TOO STABLE FOR ANY ORGANIZED STORMS TO FORM AT THIS POINT. THE BEST CHANCE AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A BIT MORE INSTABILITY...BUT BY THEN...A DEAL OF THE SHEAR WOULD HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON MAR 18 2013 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAVE THE WARM FRONT NOW BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM. THE SHIELD OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THE WARM HAS ALSO LIFTED NORTH INTO OHIO. THIS BAND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR DROPPING AROUND A HALF AN INCH AT BEST IN THE COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT LATER TODAY WITH APPROACHING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. CONCERNING THE POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT...UPSTREAM IN WESTERN KENTUCKY A DEVELOPING LINE HAS NOW CROSSED THE MS RIVER SEEMS POISED TO REACH THE CWA BORDER BY 12Z ACCORDING TO CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODELS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EARLY AVAILABLE SHEAR WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE BETTER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. ANY CONVECTION WITH MARGINAL SEVERE CAPABILITIES WILL BE ISOLATED AND MORE PRESENT SOUTH OF THE BORDER INTO TN. HOWEVER...MODEST MID LEVEL CAPE AND STILL ENOUGH SHEAR PRESENT BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON WILL STILL LEAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY LINE ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT. ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE THREAT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL OVER THE NORTH YESTERDAY HAS LEFT THE GROUND WET ENOUGH FOR SOME MONITORING THE IMPENDING RAINFALL TODAY. WITH ONLY A HALF AN INCH AT BEST OVER THE NORTH YESTERDAY...GUIDANCE AT 2 INCHES OVER OUR NORTH...AND THE ACTIVITY TODAY MOVING RELATIVELY FAST OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY WITH JUST OVER AN INCH EXPECTED AT BEST...FEEL THAT A FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE WARRANTED. THERE MAY BE A FEW INSTANCES OF SOME PONDING AND SOME CREEKS RUNNING A BIT HIGH BUT OVERALL...THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE COMING RAINFALL. A MENTION IN THE HWO WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL RATHER QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY 05Z TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED BEFORE THE COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND CHANCES THE RAIN SNOW...HOWEVER...LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LEAVE A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES PRESENT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A DRY FORECAST WILL THEN BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 40S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON MAR 18 2013 MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS HANDLING PRECIP POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND ALSO FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ON. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE EARLY PERIOD OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING TO THE MIDATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP AS IT PASSES OVER OUR LOCAL AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS/MOISTURE...BUT NO PRECIP. WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIP...AND THE ECMWF AT LEAST ACKNOWLEDGING SOMETHING IS THERE...IT STILL SEEMS PRUDENT TO CARRY LOW POPS. TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL FOR RAIN/SNOW AND WILL MENTION BOTH. EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS UNCLEAR. UPPER IMPULSES CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE EAST PACIFIC ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE AND DROP INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND THEN HEAD EAST. HOWEVER...VARIATIONS ON THIS PATTERN AND THE RESULTING DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE AT THE END OF THE WEEK RESULT IN A LOW CONFIDENCE PRECIP FORECAST. USED A MODEL BLEND AND A 20-40 PERCENT POP FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ON...WITH SURFACE LOWS TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THERE IS CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPS OVERALL WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...SO THAT PRECIP COULD FALL AS RAIN AND/OR SNOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 704 AM EDT MON MAR 18 2013 IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THE ONLY OTHER THREAT FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY 20 KNOT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL THEN GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 01Z TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...COOLER AIR AND A WELL SATURATED SURFACE WILL ALLOW IFR CEILINGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW CEILINGS LIFT LAT TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 520 AM EDT MON MAR 18 2013 KYZ050-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120-191100- MONTGOMERY-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL- WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE- MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER- MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT STERLING...IRVINE...STANTON... FRENCHBURG...MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO... WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO... PINEVILLE...HARLAN...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON... SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN... BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...INEZ... PIKEVILLE 520 AM EDT MON MAR 18 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND ALSO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. KYZ044-051-052-104-191100- FLEMING-BATH-ROWAN-ELLIOTT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD... SANDY HOOK 520 AM EDT MON MAR 18 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY. RECENT RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL TODAY MAY CAUSE CREEKS TO RUN HIGH AND RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND ALSO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. SHALLENBERGER
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 68 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:59 UTC.
7 flash flood, 3 flood, 2 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Rainfall amount of 1.75 inches was observed between 8 am and 11:54 am EST at the state highway garage near Morehead.
The Kentucky Mesonet station near Barbourville measured 1.77 inches of rain through 3:45 pm EST. Knox County Highway Department reports some ditches overflowing onto area roads but no road closures.
Hope Means Road was closed due to flash flooding.
Culverts were stopped up with water backing up onto Highway 1167 and 32.
The intersection of Quisenberry Road and Stepstone Road was impassable due to flash flooding.
The intersection of Aarons Ridge Road and Bunkerhill Road was impassable due to flash flooding.
Ditches overflowed onto highway 3443 at times.
Highway 1105 was closed due to flash flooding between mile markers 2 and 4 near Flat Creek.
Highway 111 was closed due to flash flooding between mile markers 2 and 4.
Highwya 36 was closed due to flash flooding between mile markers 2 and 6.
Highway 3303 was closed due to flash flooding.
Old Sportsman Club Road and Cimarron Road were closed due to flood waters from the North Fork of Tripplett Creek.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, March 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 432167, 432164, 432171, 432166, 432168, 432169, 432165, 432160, 432161, 432162, 432163, 432170.