An anomalous amplified pattern for summer featured a nearly stationary deep 500mb closed low over western Kentucky. Cold temperatures aloft combined with seasonally average moisture led to the development of numerous storms during the early morning hours on July 1st.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
An anomalous amplified pattern for summer featured a nearly stationary deep 500mb closed low over western Kentucky. Cold temperatures aloft combined with seasonally average moisture led to the development of numerous storms during the early morning hours on July 1st. Several storms developed near Bowling Green and brought over 2 inches to the Bowling Green Airport around dawn. Additional convection developed during the mid to late afternoon hours. Many of these storms, forming right underneath the cold 500mb temperatures, were slow moving and strong. A few brought episodes of flash flooding and marginally severe hail, concentrated over the Kentucky Bluegrass Region and south central Kentucky.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 1, 1:02 AM CST, 2 hours 8 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 302 AM EDT MON JUL 01 2013 .SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)... Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2013 The upper-level low is currently spinning across western Kentucky. Expect it to shift northwest and be positioned over the St. Louis region by Tuesday afternoon. At the surface an inverted trough continues to stretch northeastward from the lower Mississippi Valley right into the Ohio Valley, and will shift slightly west as the upper low approaches St. Louis. Given the current position of the low, familiarity with what happened last night north of the forecast area, and model projections of a few vort maxes rounding this upper low, believe this is how today will pan out. One vort max is on it's way to our area this morning from the south. Expect showers and some scattered thunderstorms to develop across the area before dawn (already evident across southern Kentucky). This will move northward, get caught up in the deformation axis across our northwest, and move counterclockwise west of the CWA. The southern and eastern CWA should experience a lull about mid morning into the afternoon hours. Then, our next vort max will enter the forecast area from the south-southwest, which will trigger new development from roughly the I-65 corridor and points east. Overall, expecting better shower and thunderstorm coverage today. The better shear with the vort max this afternoon will support multicell convection. The limiting factor is instability. Some breaks in the cloud cover would increase buoyancy, which would aid in slightly stronger downdrafts than we have experienced lately. However, still expecting primarily sub-severe convection, with localized heavy rainfall being the main threat. Keep in mind, with all the rainfall we have had lately, 45-50 mph winds can easily blow over weakly rooted trees. Once the second vort max moves through this afternoon and evening, should see a fairly good decrease in activity overnight with lack of synoptic-scale forcing, and latest mesoscale models agree. That lull could carry into Tuesday as well, with less coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Best precip areas Tuesday seem to be across our northwest (northern side of the inverted surface trough) and higher terrain in the southeast (southern side of the inverted surface trough). Will keep scattered chances going, as Tuesday afternoon convection will likely be diurnally driven and not sure how outflow boundaries will play into cell propagation/new development for the center of the CWA. High temperatures will struggle to break out of the middle 70s across our northwest counties today, in the vicinity of the upper low and associated cloud cover. Areas further southeast should reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. Temperatures will drop back into the lower 60s tonight, with highs Tuesday a couple degrees warmer than today. .LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)... Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2013 Well...The approaching trof will retrograde to the NW, while an amplifying Bermuda High pushes westward changing the cool and unsettled wx regime (under the upper low) to more of a typical summertime heat and humidity returning to the region, especially by the weekend. Tue Night thru Thu Am... Upper low moves from the Show Me State to the Badger State thru the period. Kept the theme of higher POPS during the afternoon and evening with increasing diurnal heating. Temps will continue to below normal in the low to mid 80s on Wed with lows in the low to mid 60s. Increased POPS in the Ern CWA and lowered them in wrn CWA. Thu PM-Sun Significant airmass change with Bermuda High moving westward. The 00z GFS is significantly further westward with with the ridge center axis at end of period over the Palmetto State. If this in fact happens the pcpn fields will shift into the Lower MS Valley for the deep extended POPS/WX. The 4th of July best chc of pcpn will be east of I 65 with high chc POPS. For outdoor events, will not be an all day rain. Swly flow bringing GLFMEX moisture nwd in earnest, especially on Fri and Sat. PWATs will climb from 1.1 inches on Thu 18z to 2 inches late Thu night. This sultry airmass with continuous GLFMEX fetch will bring sct tsra/shra, especially during aftn/evening. Tropical downpours will occur and bring localized flooding problems with only 15kts of mid level flow. Temps will increase a couple of degrees, but model soundings are so moist that no more than upper 80s/near 90 will be realized. Lows will increase 5 degrees or so with this moist airmass and increasing dew points. Dew points will once again rise to around 70 Fri-Sun. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Issued at 135 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2013 Moisture advecting into southern Kentucky ahead of a vort max will keep VCSH going for BWG. Elsewhere, not much is going on, but some recent models are keying in on this approaching vort max from the south, which could spark showers with perhaps scattered thunder near SDF and LEX before or near dawn. Will add VCSH, and monitor for coverage as the morning progresses. Expect there to be a lull in convection around mid morning into the afternoon hours, until our next vort max approaches for the afternoon and evening hours. Will include VCSH for this activity, then back off later in the evening as the vort should push activity out of the area with a fairly quiet Monday night expected. Otherwise, not sold on cigs dropping to MVFR early this morning, but visibility could slip a bit. Will account for the visibility with 6SM BR for now. Winds, outside of any nearby convection, will be rather light through the period. If anything, winds will favor northeasterly today with an inverted trough just south of the terminals. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. Short Term.......MJP Long Term........JDG Aviation.........MJP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 341 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-020745- ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN- PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY- MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY- OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY- HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY- NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY- LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY- EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY- WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY- ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON... JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY... JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG... BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX... MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE... BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN... CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON... PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG... NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE... LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE... GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE... BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE... EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY 341 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 /241 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY KEEPING UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS IN THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WHICH WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY...SOME ISOLATED STORMS COULD CONTAIN 45 MPH WINDS AND FROM PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD WHILE A HIGH OFF VIRGINIA BECOMES OUR WEATHER MAKER. THIS LARGE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT WARM AND MOIST GULF OF MEXICO AIR NORTHWARD...BRINGING AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE 4TH OF JULY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE. JDG/GLS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
306 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
KYZ026-027-061-062-070>072-074-010905-
BARREN KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-GRAYSON KY-LOGAN KY-OHIO KY-SIMPSON
KY-WARREN KY-
306 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS BOWLING GREEN AREA...
AT 301 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PLUM SPRINGS...AND MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
THREE SPRINGS...
PLUM SPRINGS...
MOUNT VICTOR...
MORGANTOWN...
MEMPHIS JUNCTION...
BRISTOW...
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
20 AND 43.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN KENTUCKY (FORD) PARKWAY BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 107 AND 94.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE
INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
LAT...LON 3746 8671 3749 8614 3735 8613 3733 8616
3730 8613 3691 8610 3691 8614 3693 8615
3691 8615 3691 8617 3694 8617 3692 8619
3694 8620 3691 8621 3689 8626 3683 8667
TIME...MOT...LOC 0804Z 202DEG 4KT 3701 8638
JDGSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
KYZ026-027-061-062-071-011000-
BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-GRAYSON KY-OHIO KY-WARREN KY-
400 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
ACROSS BOWLING GREEN...
AT 358 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM FROM BOWLING GREEN TO NEAR
BROWNSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE ALSO
REDEVELOPING BACK TO THE SOUTH.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
THREE SPRINGS...
PLUM SPRINGS...
LEITCHFIELD...
WINDYVILLE...
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
20 AND 30.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN KENTUCKY (FORD) PARKWAY BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 107 AND 94.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
WARREN COUNTY.
&&
LAT...LON 3695 8665 3749 8666 3748 8605 3747 8606
3745 8605 3733 8611 3734 8616 3730 8612
3691 8630 3689 8662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0859Z 180DEG 8KT 3715 8633
JDG/GLSThe Nashville radar (KOHX), 91 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:08 UTC.
5 flash flood, 5 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail, 2 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
A spotter reported 6 TO 7 inches of water flowing over Louisville Road, with water continuing to rise. The ASOS site nearby at the Bowling Green Airport measured over one and one half inches in the 1 1/2 hours previous to this report.
A spotter reported flash flooding at the intersection of Russelville and Morgantown Roads.
A spotter reported flash flooding on Veterans Memorial Lane. The Bowling Green ASOS site nearby at the airport measured 2.77 inches in the 6 hours leading up to this report.
A spotter reported several downed trees and limbs in excess of 6 inches in diameter.
A spotter reported quarter sized hail at Mile Marker 7 on Interstate 65.
The Green County emergency manager reported that the intersection of Kentucky Highway 68 and C. Garrison Road was closed due to high water.
The Green County emergency manager relayed a report that a measured 3.85 inches of rain fell in a two hour period near the small town of Exie.
The intersection of State Highway South 61 and State Highway 565 was closed due to flash flooding.
The emergency manager relayed a report of several trees down along Speck Ridge Road.
The Boyle County emergency manager reported many trees down along Lancaster Road, centered around 5 miles east of Danville.
Multiple trees were downed around Bryantsville.
The Jessamine County emergency manager reported several trees down just southeast of Wilmore. This same thunderstorm also brought damage to Garrard and Boyle Counties.
The Kentucky Mesonet measured 1.74 inches of rain in around 50 minutes. This contributed to a small rockslide that briefly closed State Highway 524 just southeast of Westport.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 450348, 450349, 450350, 450346, 450339, 450341, 450336, 450343, 450338, 450351, 450354, 450352, 450677, 450355.