NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 23, 1:25 PM CST, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 23, 1:25 PM CST, 1 hour 2 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
325 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2013
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2013
A broken line of thunderstorms that has redeveloped this afternoon
over parts of central KY along a dewpoint boundary. The line was
drifting south-southeast, and had produced some heavy downpours -
the Grayson County Mesonet picked up nearly over a quarter of an
inch in 5 minutes. North of Glasgow, radar estimates of around 2
inches show up for a few pixels. Our local 12Z WRF model has a
fairly good handle on this convection, with continued slow movement
south and dissipation by 01Z. Pea-sized hail just reported north of
Glasgow...so some of the 2 inch rainfall estimate could have been
hail-tainted.
Once these storms start to weaken with the setting sun this evening,
a relatively drier regime begins as we become dominated by a surface
high pressure over the Great Lakes. In the upper levels, the 500 mb
ridge over the Central Plains will provide weak NW flow aloft. This
scenario is not enough to usher in drastically cooler and drier air
along the lines of last weekend, but overnight lows the next two
nights should be 1-3 degrees below what we saw this morning, as
cloud cover will be next to nil by midnight. With dew points in the
lower 60s, this spells out to min temps in the mid to upper 60s both
nights, save for a few lower 60s north of the Ohio River.
Max temperatures Saturday will be similar to today, with most
topping out in the mid to upper 80s.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2013
The majority of the long term period will feature a highly amplified
upper-level trough off the western CONUS, allowing an expansive
blocking high to envelop much of the central CONUS. This high will
control the sensible weather through the long term period, providing
generally dry conditions but rising temperatures through next week.
The upper ridge will really take hold across the central United
States this weekend, as 500 mb heights rise to 596 dam across the
Central Plains. The influence of this ridge will spread into the
Ohio Valley Sunday into early next week, allowing very warm air to
push east into portions of the region. Sunday will bring highs in
the upper 80s. However, the better southerly flow will remain west
of the region, meaning dewpoints won't be all too oppressive. They
likely will remain in the middle 60s, which will put heat indices in
the lower 90s.
The oppressive airmass will work in Monday and last through the
remainder of the long term period. Highs will slowly rise each day,
pushing into the lower 90s, with Wednesday perhaps flirting with
some mid 90s across some locations. These temperatures are a bit
above guidance, but will certainly be attainable as this pattern is
climatologically favored for warm temperatures in the Ohio Valley.
Soils are actually quite dry across southern IN and northern KY,
which is where the warmest 850mb air will move into on Wednesday.
An examination of soundings does show the potential for some dry air
mixing down, however, which may limit heat indices in the heat of
the afternoon hours on Wednesday. Nonetheless, heat indices nearing
100 degrees certainly look possible, especially Wednesday
afternoon. Despite temperatures not being all too oppressive, the
prolonged nature of the heat (which could last well into next
weekend) could cause some issues for sensitive groups and anyone
working outside.
Guidance continues to suggest isolated convection developing each
afternoon Sunday through Tuesday, as a very weak boundary remains
nearly stationary across central KY. However, the building heights
aloft will likely establish a decent mid-level subsidence inversion,
which is evident on many forecast soundings across the region.
Therefore, while a storm could potentially bust through the cap on
any day, think coverage will likely remain around 10%, thus not
worth a mention at this time. Guidance suggests a better threat for
rain on Thursday, as a strong shortwave rounds the periphery of the
ridge, and carves out a trough across the NE, which could help push
the influence of the upper ridge back to the west a bit. This would
put at least the eastern CWA in the better northwesterly flow aloft,
potentially bringing more active weather. However, this signal is a
known bias in guidance this time of year, and think the strength of
this ridge will win out, ultimately keeping the precipitation
chances east of the region. Therefore, will continue with a dry
forecast through the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2013
All that remains of earlier convection is isolated thunder in a
broken line from south of BWG to near SME at this hour. With these
moving SE at 15kt, will include VCTS for BWG until 21z, though
unless additional cells build, should be south of the TN border well
before then. At SDF and LEX, flat-topped cumulus and some high
AC/low CI will be all for this afternoon before clearing with the
setting sun.
Other than the precip near BWG, this should be a fairly uneventful
TAF period, with the flow around surface high centered over the
Great Lakes working to drop dew points down a few degrees, and the
upper ridge over the central plains close enough to keep us in a
weak NW flow.
NAM MOS is bullish on fog at BWG overnight, suggesting IFR vsbys
09-15Z but this seems overdone. Will insert a TEMPO 4SM there
07-11Z which seems more likely.
Light winds and only scattered cumulus again by the end of the TAF
period for all sites.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
Short Term........JBS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........JBS