Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Kentucky, August 21, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
114 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

PCPN COVERAGE HAS INCREASED OVER OUR SWRN COUNTIES AS THE MOISTURE
RICH AIR PUSHES NE FROM MIDDLE TENN. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE FCST.
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE HAS ALSO SHOWN AN INFLUX OF WARMER TEMPS AND
WILL LIKELY NEED A NEW ZONE UPDATE FOR WARMER HIGH TEMPS. GRIDS
UPDATES WITH LATEST DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE SHORT LIVED AND MOVING
QUICKLY TO THE NE. ADDITIONAL STORMS IN MIDDLE TENN MOVING TOWARD ERN
KY ARE FORMING IN A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
ERN KY...EXPECT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO CREATE A CLIMATE FOR MORE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE REMOVED MORNING WORDING FROM ZONES
AND UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXTENDED FROM WOLFE
TO KNOTT COUNTY AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO WEST VIRGINIA AFTER 9 AM. THESE STORMS CAN DUMP
UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN AS THEY PASS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

OVERALL THE FORECAST MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. A SECOND MUCH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY...PARTICULARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER
OF MOISTURE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AT BELOW NORMAL VALUES...PARTICULARLY TODAY AS
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 80...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
MAKING IT INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BOARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SEASONABLE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY BE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST...THIS WILL FINALLY ALLOW A FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
THE NORTH AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND FINALLY GIVE US
A DRY AND WARM WEEKEND. BY MONDAY A STRONG UPPER HIGH AND RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL US AND WILL RESULT IN UPPER TROUGHS OFF OF
BOTH COASTS. THIS WILL TEND TO BLOCK THE MOIST AIR FROM MOVING INTO
THE AREA AND WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S AND LOW IN THE MID 60S. THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND MOSTLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AND THEN BUMPED THE HIGHS UP AND THE LOW DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

PRECIPTATION GINING WIDER COVERAGE ACROSS ERN KY AS THE WARM MOIST
AIR IN TENN MOVES INTO THE REGION. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. EXPECTING NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HEAVIER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF TEMPO IFR AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. MOVEMENT IS QUICK ENOUGH THAT ANY REDUCTION IN VSBY/CIG
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW MINUTES. THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE IS
SPARSE EVEN AS THE SHOWER COVERAGE IS NUMEROUS...SO JUST HAVE VCTS IN
THE TAF.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DUSTY
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 AM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-221045-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
343 AM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AR