Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, May 8, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
122 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWED A MID LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AS OF LATE MORNING. A MID LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
WAS ELLIPTICAL IN ITS CONFIGURATION FROM FAR NORTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. RAP
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SUGGESTED THE GREATEST MID LEVEL
ASCENT WAS OCCURRING OVER THE SANGRES OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. LIGHTNING STRIKES AS OF 1615 UTC WERE
CLUSTERED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN THE PUEBLO VICINITY. 850MB UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WITH AN AXIS
OF +13 TO +15C DEWPOINTS FROM MIDLAND TO AMARILLO. THIS MOISTURE WAS
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH 58 TO 60F DEWPOINTS OBSERVED FROM
WEST TEXAS THROUGH FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

A SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DEPARTED SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND LEFT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WINDS WERE OUT OF THE DUE EAST
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 54 TO 57F RANGE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOST ITS
DEFINITION FARTHER WEST...BUT COULD STILL BE FOLLOWED UP TO THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS OF 16Z...THE STRONGEST
SURFACE-BASED CONVERGENCE WAS ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE IT MET A DEVELOPING DRYLINE...SOMEWHERE IN
THE GLAZIER, TX TO SHATTUCK, OK VICINITY. THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW
WAS LOCATED NEAR GUYMON, OK AND A NEBULOUS TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THIS LOW THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

TONIGHT:
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST. THE
STRONGEST ASCENT TIED TO THE NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL POTENTIAL
ANOMALY...WILL APPROACH SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS SECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSOLVE AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW RESPONDS
TO THE SYNOPTIC LOW OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NARROW CHANNEL
OF UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. STORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHEN IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
THE MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS...SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE OF
AN ISSUE. THERE ARE SEVERAL AREAS WHERE SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS
SMALL AREAS OF CONVERGENCE DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE LOW. ALL
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING.

AS FAR AS THREATS GO...THE BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME
WHEN 0-1KM AGL SHEAR RAMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHER DEGREE OF
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 58 TO 61F RANGE DUE
TO CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND HERE. THIS SAME AREA...MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF AN ENGLEWOOD TO SAINT JOHN LINE...WILL ALSO SEE THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL TO AROUND TENNIS BALL OR BASEBALL SIZE.
NORTH OF THIS LINE...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES DIAMETER APPEARS QUITE
POSSIBLE...BUT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE A BIT WEAKER AND
THERE WILL BE A LARGER CONCENTRATION OF STORMS SO VERY LARGE HAIL
PRODUCTION DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS IDEAL.  THE AREA GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LAKIN TO JETMORE TO LARNED LINE WILL SEE A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...AS ORIENTATION OF STORMS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
EAST-NORTHEAST MANOR MAY PROMOTE TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE SAME
GENERAL LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.  HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED
"HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE" IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA.  A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MCS WILL LIKELY RESULT AFTER 04Z
OR SO WITH A TRANSITION MORE TO A STRONG/DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS ONE
OR TWO BOW SEGMENTS MAY EVOLVE.

THURSDAY:
COOL, YET STILL MOIST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME FILTERED INSOLATION ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS LOWER 70S...ALLOWING
FOR REGENERATION OF SOME SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO A RATHER COOL (AND SOMEWHAT MOIST) MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT.  WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WHOLE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION FOR THE DAY THURSDAY AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY APPEARS CLOUDY AND
CLIMATOLOGICALLY NEAR NORMAL, WITH WEAKLY UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOIST 850 MB FIELDS SUGGESTIVE OF
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THAT ONLY SLOWLY ERODES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON
FRIDAY. THE WARMEST OF MODEL SOLUTIONS ALLOW LOW 70'S WHICH IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. DEPENDING ON THE
EXTENSIVENESS OF CLOUDINESS, TEMPERATURES COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM
THE MID 60'S TO MID 70'S.

THE UPPER POLAR LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE
THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY MARK THE BEGINNING OF A WARMER
AND DRIER PERIOD WHICH SHOULD LAST TOUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BARRING
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE EVENTS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. ANY
CONVECTION WOULD BE DUE TO CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, AND WOULD BE PURELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BECOME FOCUSED ZONALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
EVOLVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM HIGH TERRAIN SURFACE HEATING OVER
EASTERN COLORADO, CLOSE TO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AN 850 MB TO 700 MB
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA
KANSAS COULD ALSO BE A FAVORED FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
BY WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IMPACTING AVIATION
INTEREST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS IMPACTING
TERMINALS CAN ONLY BE HANDLED IN THE ONE TO THREE HOUR NEAR TERM
FORECAST...BUT FOR THE 18Z TAF...WILL TRY TO NARROW DOWN A THREE
HOUR WINDOW OF THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR STRONGEST STORMS REDUCING
VISIBILITY AND CEILING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXITING THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL STILL
PROBABLY BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
THE COOLER, YET STILL MOIST AIRMASS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AFTER
THE THUNDERSTORM EVENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  65  48  65 /  60  30  20  10
GCK  52  66  47  65 /  80  30  20  10
EHA  51  66  49  66 /  40  40  30  10
LBL  53  68  49  67 /  20  40  30  10
HYS  55  66  49  66 /  90  30  20  10
P28  59  73  54  68 /  80  40  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
510 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-091000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
510 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2013 /410 AM MDT WED MAY 8 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED. A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS, WITH QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST. AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD CENTRAL
KANSAS ALONG A WARM FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER SOUTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

GERARD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
414 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

KSZ061-082215-
HAMILTON-
314 PM MDT WED MAY 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON COUNTY...

AT 313 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 21 MILES WEST OF
HORACE TO 7 MILES WEST OF HOLLY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 23
MILES WEST OF TRIBUNE TO 13 MILES WEST OF COOLIDGE...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

RESIDENTS IN HAMILTON COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF COOLIDGE AND
SYRACUSE...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3792 10205 3820 10205 3826 10205 3827 10204
      3827 10157 3775 10168 3786 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 279DEG 26KT 3851 10217 3802 10223

UMSCHEID