Tornado and Hail in Kansas, May 8, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
323 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

A PV ANOMALY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST
WHILE A DRYLINE WAS BECOMING MORE DEFINED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
MID/UPPER TROUGH AS THE WARM SECTOR IS PROGGED TO BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FRO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE WITH MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. ML CAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH
0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING DOWN-BURST WINDS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD IMPACTING MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE LLJ MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IMPACTING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...A TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD ALLOW THE MORE VIGOROUS DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY WHERE THE MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY IS PROGGED. A FEW
STRONG OR SEVERE CELLS MAY LINGER NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IMPACTING SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THURSDAY EVENING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A MORE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY.

MAINTAINED LOW POPS ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT...BUT MOST LOCATION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
BUT MAY FALL BY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL CAA BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS
A MID/UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 80S/AROUND 90 TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THIS
FRONT TONIGHT WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
IN CONVECTION. SINCE THE BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BEYOND THE
FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE TAF HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  72  55  69 /  80  40  20  20
HUTCHINSON      58  70  54  67 /  80  40  20  20
NEWTON          58  71  54  68 /  80  40  20  20
ELDORADO        59  72  55  69 /  80  50  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  73  56  70 /  70  50  20  30
RUSSELL         56  68  52  66 /  80  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      57  69  52  66 /  80  30  10  10
SALINA          58  71  53  68 /  80  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       58  70  54  67 /  80  40  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     60  76  59  73 /  70  60  30  30
CHANUTE         60  75  57  71 /  80  60  30  30
IOLA            60  74  56  71 /  80  60  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    60  76  59  72 /  80  60  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
420 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-092130-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
420 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LARGE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DOWN-BURST WINDS BETWEEN 60 AND
70 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP