Damaging Winds in Kansas, May 29, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
159 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE TROUGH IS STARTING TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AS STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT LOBE
ROTATING NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TX INTO SOUTHEAST CO AT THIS TIME.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED GENERALLY ALONG THE KS-
CO BORDER WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM WEST OF KGCK INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A MORE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

CURRENTLY EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT IN
WESTERN KS/OK PANHANDLE BEFORE 3 PM. GIVEN FORECAST STORM
MOTIONS WOULD THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WOULD BE SOUTHWEST OF DODGE CITY. A
CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AS THE
UPPER DYNAMICS STAR TO LIFT OUT. WHILE THESE STORMS MAY POSE A LOW
END SEVERE THREAT...STILL FEEL THE MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY WILL STAY
OVER WESTERN KS THIS AFTERNOON. SO BEST SHOT FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE TO AFFECT OUR WESTERN FRINGES WOULD BE CLOSE TO
OR EVEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

STILL REMAIN CONFIDENT THAT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT REALLY GETS
CRANKED UP AHEAD OF THE WAVE. STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NW KS WILL
EITHER DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...OR ELEVATED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET OVER CENTRAL KS AND DIVE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE A HAIL AND
WIND THREAT.

ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF
THE FINER SCALE DETAILS WILL NOT BECOME CLEAR UNTIL WE SEE
WHAT KIND OF BOUNDARIES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LAY OUT. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR HIGHER END SEVERE IS THE STRONG UPPER JET MOVING
INTO THE AREA...SOME OF THE STRONGEST UPPER WINDS WE HAVE HAD IN
SEVERAL DAYS. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE OVER NORTHEAST
KS WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WHILE
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS NOT IN A FAVORABLE JET REGION. IN
ADDITION THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE LIFTING
OVER NORTHERN MO/IA. WOULD THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP WOULD BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE
MOISTURE STARTS TO ROLL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ENHANCING
CONVERGENCE. SO RIGHT NOW FEEL THE BEST HIGH END SEVERE CHANCES
THU WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN KS INTO OK. ALSO SEEING A FAIRLY GOOD
OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNAL THU NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEAST KS.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SE KS FOR FRI AS
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH STRONG
UPPER WINDS REMAINING...A SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN FRI INTO FRI
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE.

.LONG TERM...(SAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

BY SAT MORNING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EASTERN KS. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE BETTER
MOISTURE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FINALLY ALLOWING SOME MORE
COMFORTABLE DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT PRECIP WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR SUN AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. SOME RETURN FLOW WILL SETUP
ON MON AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD
OF AN UPPER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER
MOISTURE TO WORK BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST AND SHOULD
AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
LIKELY. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EASTWARD
INTO EASTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  67  82  67 /  10  60  40  30
HUTCHINSON      82  65  83  66 /  20  50  30  20
NEWTON          81  66  80  65 /  10  60  40  30
ELDORADO        81  67  80  67 /  10  60  50  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  68  82  69 /  10  60  40  30
RUSSELL         84  62  81  56 /  30  60  20  20
GREAT BEND      84  62  83  60 /  30  60  20  20
SALINA          83  63  81  63 /  20  70  30  30
MCPHERSON       82  64  81  64 /  20  60  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     81  68  81  68 /  10  60  60  50
CHANUTE         81  68  80  66 /  10  60  60  50
IOLA            81  68  79  66 /  10  70  60  50
PARSONS-KPPF    81  68  80  67 /  10  60  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
257 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-301515-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
257 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN TWO INCHES IN
DIAMETER...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
135. THE BEST TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
14 THIS EVENING.

THE MORE WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY MAY ARRIVE TONIGHT AS A
LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WESTERN
KANSAS. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THE MAIN
THREATS WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A DRY LINE
BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE INTERSTATE I-135
AND I-35 CORRIDOR FOR STORM INITIATION. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG THE DRY LINE AND MOVE EASTWARD...WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION SOME STRONG LONG TRACK
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS LIKELY AGAIN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

CJ/LAWSON