Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, May 29, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
135 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
TROUGH APPROACHES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL NOSE INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS PLACING SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION AND IN TURN HELP SUSTAIN ANY STORMS THAT FORM. AS YOU HEAD
TO THE SURFACE, LEE TROUGHING BECOMES APPARENT ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND IS WHERE STORMS
WILL FORM IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALLS AND
DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 MPH POSSIBLE. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST SUPERCELLS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DODGE
TO LARNED LATER THIS EVENING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
FELT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND A
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR AREAS EAST OF A LINE
FROM HILL CITY TO GARDEN CITY TO HUGOTON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WILL INITIALLY START OUT AS DISCRETE CELLS THEN
CONGEAL INTO A LINE AS THEY TREK TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS LINE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE INITIAL LINE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO WICHITA'S AREA
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW AND
STRENGTHENS INTO A LOW. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL THEN BE PLACED
ABOVE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL ONLY SHIFT WINDS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE. A FEW STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLS OUT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE, BUT QUICKLY MOVE INTO WICHITA'S FORECAST
RESPONSIBILITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THE NAM WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED FOR TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE FOR
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ON THURSDAY, WHICH ACTUALLY INTRODUCES
POPS WHERE PREVIOUSLY NONE WERE CARRIED. THE REASON IS THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES UP TO
AROUND 1500 (MOST UNSTABLE) FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THURSDAY MORNING, AS A -15 TO NEAR -20 DEGREES C COLD POOL AND
LEADING EDGE OF A LEFT FRONT QUAD JET ROTATES INTO THE REGION. THIS
COULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR A
THERMALLY INDIRECT TRANSVERSE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BECOMES
OVERCOME WITH MUCH DRIER AIR THAN HAS BEEN SEEN FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF WEEKS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE ECMWF MODELS SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE 30'S TO LOW 40S WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. LOW LEVEL
STRATUS APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN TO WESTERN
KANSAS QUICKLY HOWEVER. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME REESTABLISHED.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BROAD WEAK UPPER RIDGING PATTERN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE ALONG
WITH SURFACE BASED CONVECTION COULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT ON ANY GIVEN DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, AS THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER,
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. I HAVE PLACED A TEMPO
GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON GUSTING TO AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
TIMES. WINDS THEN DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  87  60  87 /  40  10  10  20
GCK  58  86  57  86 /  30  10  10  20
EHA  57  89  58  89 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  59  90  60  90 /  20  10  10  20
HYS  61  82  59  84 /  60  20  20  20
P28  65  86  67  88 /  60  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-045-046-
063>066-075>081-085>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
515 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-301015-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
515 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013 /415 AM MDT WED MAY 29 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM LAKIN TO ULYSSES TO NEAR HUGOTON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL, AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 75 MPH. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM TODAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE DETAILS.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY
AND THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY MAY BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

IN ADDITION...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER LEVELS...MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF A LAKIN TO HUGOTON LINE
AFTER 2 PM CDT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
157 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

KSZ079-080-291945-
EDWARDS-KIOWA-
157 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EDWARDS AND KIOWA COUNTIES...

AT 152 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF MULLINVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT
45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

RESIDENTS IN EDWARDS AND KIOWA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
GREENSBURG...CENTERVIEW...FELLSBURG AND LEWIS...SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3798 9955 3798 9912 3798 9903 3763 9903
      3739 9925 3739 9955
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 200DEG 40KT 3750 9941

JJOHNSON