Damaging Wind in Kansas, June 19, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1107 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A MODEST +70KT UPPER LEVEL JET CORE IS ENTERING THE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA.
NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
STRENGTHENING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE MAINLY IN THE 60S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

TONIGHT:
QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS RATHER CAPPED TO DEEP, MOIST CONVECTION
AND A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO SUSTAIN
DEEP, MOIST CONVECTION. SURFACE CONVERGENCE REALLY CANNOT BE
IDENTIFIED ALONG THE LEE TROUGH WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
TIED TO OROGRAPHICS (RATON MESA AREA, PALMER DIVIDE, ETC.). ANY
STORMS WHICH DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE ONCE SUNSET
HITS GIVEN THE MENTIONED LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE
LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DEEP TONIGHT KEEPING WINDS UP IN THE 12 TO 16
KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY:
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
(INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT) THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES EAST AND FLOW BECOMES STRONGER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH THE LEE TROUGH FURTHER EAST...WITH A
DRYLINE SHARPENING UP AS DOWNSLOPE DRY AIR MEETS A RATHER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRYLINE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER TO SUPPORT A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A SUPERCELL STORM
WITH 0-6KM AGL SHEAR IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SBCAPE WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE...SO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
GIVEN INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT CAPPING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY:

THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES COULD BE REACHED AND A 55 KT 250 HPA
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS WARM BUT THINK THIS DESERVES SLIGHT PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY PERCENTAGE POINTS. OTHERWISE, LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S DEG F.

FRIDAY WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT AND BREEZY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS RH'S SHOULD PLUMMET BELOW
15 PERCENT. WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
COMPARED TO FARTHER EAST, SO THAT MIGHT BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEG F. THERE COULD BE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS RATHER WEAK AND NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC FORCING IS INDICATED BY
THE MODELS. MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEG F.

SATURDAY:

ANOTHER WARM TO HOT DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEG F. LARGELY FOLLOWED THE
ALLBLEND POPS FOR SATURDAY EVENING, WHICH ARE SILENT. THIS IS PROBABLY
DUE TO WARM 700 HPA TEMPERATURES PREVENTING CONVECTION. MINIMUMS INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 70S DEG F AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND:

THE ALLBLEND HAS SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY PERCENTAGE
POINTS SUNDAY. THE ECMWF INDICATES A MINOR WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS
IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON THE
EDGE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY SUMMERY
WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEG F. BEYOND SUNDAY, A 500
HPA RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD FAVOR
A PRECIPITATION FREE FORECAST (GENERALLY SPEAKING EXCEPT MAYBE AN ISOLATED
STORM HERE OR THERE). HIGHS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE CENTURY MARK WITH
LOWS IN THE 70S DEG F.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR
COLORADO BORDER. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS 00Z THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AFTER 03Z. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT
50-55KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING BETWEEN 07Z AND 14Z AT NEAR
2000FT AT DODGE CITY AND HAYS SO WILL INSERT A PERIOD OF WIND
SHEAR INTO THE TAFS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE
PRESSURES FALLS ALONG THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER EXTREME EASTERN
COLORADO AND STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67 100  70  98 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  65 101  68 101 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  66 100  68  98 /  20  10  20  20
LBL  67 100  68 101 /  20  10  20  20
HYS  67 100  72  99 /  10  10  10  10
P28  69  97  73  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
440 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-200945-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
440 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 /340 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS THIS MORNING, WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
THE FAR WEST PART OF KANSAS, WEST OF A LINE FROM LAKIN TO HUGOTON,
WILL SEE SUNSHINE EARLIER THAN POINTS EAST, AND WILL THUS BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE BY 3 PM CDT. ALSO, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A DRY
LINE WILL F0RM NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS
AND 70 MPH DOWNBURSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS COULD BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM CDT TODAY, WEST OF LINE FROM LAKIN
TO HUGOTON.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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