Drought in Kansas, July 1 to 31, 2013

Name: Drought in Kansas, July 1 to 31, 2013
Start: 2013-07-01T00:00
End: 2013-07-31T23:59
Location: Kansas

July 1 to 31, 2013 · NWS GID · 6 events in 6 counties and zones

S. Drought Monitor, July 2013 marked the 15th consecutive month of D1 Moderate (or worse) drought within this six-county portion of North Central Kansas, continuing one of the most notable droughts since the 1950s.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
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Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
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Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 6

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, July 2013 marked the 15th consecutive month of D1 Moderate (or worse) drought within this six-county portion of North Central Kansas, continuing one of the most notable droughts since the 1950s. Precipitation trends during July were a mixed bag across the area, with roughly an even-split between above and below normal rainfall, but with nearly all places receiving at least 1.50. That being said, Phillips County continued to dry out more than any other county in the area, enduring its 5th-consecutive month of below normal precipitation. On a positive note, July temperatures averaged a few degrees cooler than normal...in sharp contrast to the notably hot and dry July 2012 one year ago that put considerable stress on crops. All factors considered, much of this six-county area actually realized a one-category improvement in official drought classification during July according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, although a noticeable west-east disparity remained. In the west, most of Phillips and a decent chunk of Rooks counties remained in D3 Extreme Drought at month's end, with a sliver of D4 Exceptional Drought (the worst-possible category) still clipping western Phillips County. Farther east, most of Smith, Osborne and Jewell counties were a mix of D1 Moderate and D2 Severe drought, although southeast Osborne County had improved to D0 Abnormally Dry (one category better than true drought). Mitchell County remained in the overall best-shape, featuring almost exclusively the D0 category. Reports from around 20 NWS cooperative observers, and also incorporating radar-derived estimation, confirmed the fairly even-split between above and below normal rainfall across the area (based on normals generally between 3.60-4.15 inches). Mitchell and Osborne counties were the overall-wettest in the area, while Phillips, Smith and northern Jewell were the overall driest. Per NWS cooperative observers, a few of the lowest July rainfall totals were 1.68 one mile north of Long Island, 1.89 at Lebanon and 2.16 at Phillipsburg. On the noticeably wetter side of things were locations such as Cawker City (8.54), Beloit (7.22) and Jewell (5.29). In between these wettest and driest extremes, much of the area tallied July totals between 2.50-4.50, including stations in or near Plainville, Smith Center, Burr Oak and Natoma.

Focusing on the longer-range picture of year-to-date precipitation (January 1-July 24), most of the six-county area only stood 51-92% of normal, with Phillips County clearly the overall-driest, including only 51% of normal at both Logan and Phillipsburg. In contrast, Mitchell County remained the overall-wettest, featuring 112% of normal at Beloit. The USDA Kansas Crop Progress and Condition Report for the week ending July 21st indicated that dryland crops and pastures continued to suffer, especially in western portions of the state. Within the north central district, topsoil moisture rated 74% short to very short and only 25% adequate, a considerable decline versus values of 31% and 65%, respectively, in early June. Subsoil moisture supplies in the north central counties had also degraded over the past several weeks, now rating 71% short to very short versus 59% previously. The state-averaged corn crop rated 30% poor to very poor, but also 31% good to excellent. Soybeans rated 41% good to excellent and only 13% poor to very poor. State-averaged range and pasture conditions rated 55% poor to very poor, a degradation from 45% in early June. Stock water supplies checked in 42% short to very short, a 7% degradation over the past six weeks.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 30, 10:52 PM CST, 1 hour 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 30, 10:52 PM CST, 1 hour 8 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1152 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013

WE CONTINUE IN THE MIDST OF A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH VERY LITTLE RISK FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE
PRESENCE OF A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
TECHNICALLY KEEPS POPS IN THE 5-10 PERCENT RANGE MUCH OF THE
TIME...NOT STRAIGHT-UP ZERO. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
CONTINUE...WITH BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS LOOKING TO AVERAGE AROUND 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH TONIGHT/MONDAY.

20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE LOCAL AREA...AND
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS IN FACT...REMAINS FIRMLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A PEAK
MAGNITUDE AROUND 1025 MILLIBARS ALONG THE ND/CANADA BORDER. AS A
RESULT...AFTERNOON BREEZES HAVE PREVAILED FROM A NORTH-NORTHEAST
DIRECTION AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 12-17 MPH...BUT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20-25 MPH. NONETHELESS...ITS BEEN A
SEASONABLY PLEASANT AFTERNOON AS MOST AREAS SHOULD REALIZE HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 78-84 RANGE...EXCEPT FOR A FEW OF THE FAR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES WHICH MAY BARELY EVEN HIT 76. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA DEPICT SEASONABLY STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...FLOWING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF AN EXPANSIVE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE NV/UT/AZ BORDER AREA AT A MAGNITUDE AROUND 596 DECAMETER.
MEANWHILE OFF TO THE EAST...A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO RULE
THE SCENE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN THE
INTERFACE BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE-SCALE FEATURES...A SERIES OF
WEAK...CHANNELED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIBBONS OF VORTICITY CONTINUE
TO RIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEB/KS...ALONG WITH LOCAL MAXIMUMS IN THE
UPPER JET...AS EVIDENCED BY A 70KT 300MB JET STREAK CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER EASTERN KS. WITH THE CWA POSITIONED IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS MODEST UPPER JET SEGMENT...AND WITH OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS ADVERTISING MEAGER-BUT-PRESENT SURFACE BASED CAPE OF
100-200 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERY WEAK CAP...A FAIRLY DECENT
COVERAGE OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS SPRUNG UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME ENHANCED-BUT-STILL-SHALLOW CUMULUS FOCUSED WITHIN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA.

FORECAST-WISE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ITS NOT VERY
LIKELY...WILL GO AHEAD AND HOLD ONTO A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES THROUGH 00Z/7PM FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NEB
CWA...CORRESPONDING TO NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
CUMULUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY...SHOULD IT EVEN
TURN INTO A FEW SPRINKLES...SHOULD FADE AWAY WITH THE ONSET OF
DIURNAL COOLING...AND AS A RESULT WILL REFRAIN FROM ANY SPRINKLE
MENTION POST-00Z...DESPITE A FEW MODELS SUGGESTING THIS MINOR RISK
COULD EXTEND A FEW HOURS BEYOND THAT. OTHERWISE...WILL MAINTAIN A
RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ITS
CERTAINLY LOOKING LIKE SOME RAIN SHOWERS COULD BRUSH WITHIN 50-75
MILES OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z/3AM.
FORCING-WISE ALOFT...ANOTHER MODEST UPPER JET MAX WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...WHICH IS
PROGGED TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL LIFT AND SATURATION SUCH
AS EVIDENT ON THE 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE PER THE 18Z NAM TO
SPARK A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES
LEAKING OVER INTO OUR CWA...FEEL REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT ANY
ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WEST OF
OUR FAR WESTERN FRINGES. AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT...THE DOMINANT
HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN THE MAIN
PLAYER...KEEPING BREEZES DOWN AROUND 5 MPH MOST OF THE NIGHT FROM
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN CWA COULD SEE A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER...THE COMBO OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND
SEASONABLY DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RATHER COOL-FEEL BY JULY 1ST
STANDARDS...AND NUDGED DOWN LOWS ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS
PER BLEND OF 12Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR-50
FAR NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. HOWEVER...RECORD LOWS AT GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN SAFE BY 4-6 DEGREES.

TURNING TO MONDAY DAYTIME...KEPT THE RAIN-FREE THEME INTACT...BUT
AGAIN...COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
CWA BORDERS..BUT ITS JUST NOT WORTH MENTIONING EVEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR OUR PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PREVAILING PATTERN...AS THE
LARGE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BECOMES EVEN SLIGHTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH STALLS
OUT OVER THE MEMPHIS AREA. GIVEN THIS EVEN SHARPER RIDGE/TROUGH
ORIENTATION...FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ALMOST DUE
NORTHERLY AND REMAIN SEASONABLY STRONG...AS A 65+KT 300MB JET
STREAK RIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEB/EASTERN CO AS THE DAY
GOES ON. WITH A SLIGHTLY POCKET OF LOW LEVEL AIR PROGGED TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE CWA AT 850MB PER THE NAM...CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE ALMOST NIL LOCALLY...WHILE AT LEAST UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPS WITHIN 100 MILES OF BOTH THE WESTERN AND ALSO
EASTERN CWA BORDERS. GIVEN THIS INSTABILITY PROG AND ORIENTATION
OF UPPER FORCING...ANY WEAK DAYTIME SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD FOCUS
ACROSS WESTERN NEB/KS AND POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN NEB AS WELL. WIND-
WISE...ALTHOUGH THE SAME SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN
PLAYER...A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY WEAKER BREEZES...WITH SUSTAINED EAST-NORTHEAST BREEZES
ONLY AVERAGING 10-13 MPH. TEMP-WISE...SEE LITTLE REASON WHY HIGHS
WON/T END UP QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE...AND MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING FOR 80-82 MOST NEB ZONES...AND 82-84 IN
KS...ALTHOUGH AS SEEN TODAY SOME SPOTS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 80.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013

LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OVER THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MEANDERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS
WESTWARD...MAINLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...DECIDED TO
REMAIN WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AND ACCUMULATING RAINFALL CONTINUES TO LOOK
UNLIKELY DESPITE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SMALL CAPE VALUES
TO WORK WITH.

OTHERWISE...NICE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MODIFY
SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...WHEN THE SURFACE WINDS
SWITCH AND BECOME SOUTHERLY...ADVECTING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ALONG WITH A MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS.

SO OVERALL...EXPECT A DRY AND NICE HOLIDAY WEEK AHEAD...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES...
CONTINUING THROUGH THE 4TH...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AS WE TRANSITION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE
FROM A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND SCATTERED CU CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTN AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...FAY

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 30, 1:56 PM CST, 10 hours 4 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
256 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
011200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
256 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PFANNKUCH/SAR

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

6 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Jewell

When: July 1, 12:00 AM CST to July 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Jewell forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 39.785, -98.218 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Mitchell

When: July 1, 12:00 AM CST to July 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Mitchell forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 39.393, -98.209 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Osborne

When: July 1, 12:00 AM CST to July 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Osborne forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 39.350, -98.768 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Phillips

When: July 1, 12:00 AM CST to July 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Phillips forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 39.785, -99.347 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Rooks

When: July 1, 12:00 AM CST to July 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Rooks forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 39.350, -99.325 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Smith

When: July 1, 12:00 AM CST to July 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Smith forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 39.785, -98.785 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Kansas in 2013 Every state in 2013 This day in weather history Warnings in Kansas, July 2013

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 462561, 462562, 462563, 462564, 462565, 462566.