Flash Flood and Hail in Kansas, August 5, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
158 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2013

...Updated for the long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

The weather pattern tonight through tomorrow will generally consist
of an upper level high positioned across the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley with a strong southeast sloping jet across
Nebraska and the Northern Plains. Weak shortwaves are progged to
move around this high and enhance lift across the Central Plains.
Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly moist with winds
generally from the west to southwest. A frontal boundary will be
found at the surface throughout the short term period with dewpoints
remaining in the 60s to lower 70s. Winds tonight will generally be
from the south to southeast becoming light and variable tomorrow.
This boundary will be the focal point where thunderstorms are
expected to form this afternoon. These thunderstorms may become
severe across west central and central Kansas late this afternoon
into the evening with large hail and damaging winds being the main
concern. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue into the
overnight then decrease in coverage after midnight. Areas of fog
will be possible once again after midnight due to the light winds
and ample moisture at the surface. Any fog that does develop should
dissipate by late morning leaving partly cloudy skies and dry
conditions through mid afternoon. Another chance of thunderstorms
will be possible late tomorrow afternoon into the evening as the
frontal boundary becomes stationary across western Kansas. Lows
tonight are expected to range from the mid 60s across west central
Kansas to mid 70s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are
forecasted to range from the lower 90s across west central Kansas to
near 100 across the KS/OK border.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

Tuesday night will see an upper wave eject eastward from an
approaching larger upper wave, bringing storm chances to all of
western Kansas. The precipitation chances for Tuesday night will
then increase from the 30 percent chance near sundown Tuesday to 50
percent chance range by midnight.  There will be a 30 percent
chance for rain east and 20 percent chance west Wednesday morning,
but as a warm front moves north toward the Oklahoma and Kansas
border late in the day Wednesday, the southern part of our
forecast area will be in the 50 percent range for thunderstorms.
That upper wave crosses into Kansas late Wednesday, and it appears
we could be in for some more heavy downpours Wednesday night, and
possible severe thunderstorms. The pops are in the 50 to 60 percent likely
range Wednesday night, and as said previously, the potential for
heavy rain will need to be watched out for, as well a the
potential for areal or even flash flooding. A flood watch could
be needed for Wednesday night. That decision could be made
tomorrow, or even later, using rainfall amounts from tonight as
input information.  Tuesday still looks warm with the abundant low
level warmth sneaking back north behind a warm front. Highs
Tuesday should range from the lower 90s near Hays to the 100-103F
degree range along the Oklahoma border. The warm front will sink
back south as cold front early Wednesday, and highs will be
significantly cooler in the upper 70s northwest of a line from
Wakeeney to Johnson City, and range up to the middle 80s southeast
of a line from Pratt to Meade.  Thursday will be very similar to
Wednesday, temperature-wise, but with perhaps less wind. The upper
wave will continue to move across southwestern Kansas Thursday,
and thunderstorms will still be a possibility, with chance pops
across my eastern sections of the forecast area, and 20 to 30 pops
in the west.  Minimum temperatures Wed and Thu will average in the
middle to upper 60s.

Further down the forecast, for Friday through Monday, the upper high
pressure to our south will become more west to east oriented as a
ridge, and the high pressure center will migrate toward the Gulf
states. This will allow for the central plains to be in a more of
a northwesterly to zonal flow. Short waves will easily pass
through the plains in this flow pattern. Chances for
thunderstorms will exist each afternoon and early night period,
from Friday through Monday. The rain chances will be in the west
Friday, our northwest Friday night, and increase into the 30 to 40
percent range Saturday across all of our forecast area. A warm
front will advance north early Sunday, and 20 to 30 percent rain
chances will shift northward and eastward Sunday afternoon, and
then cover all of southwestern Kansas Sunday night and Monday.

Friday will see some moderation in max temps, ranging from 83F
degrees in Hays and WAKEENEY to 87F degrees in the the Medicine Loge
area.  Daily temperatures will slowly rise through Sunday and then
level off.  Sunday and Monday temperatures should be in the upper
80s to around 90F degrees north of I-70, and in the middle 90s along
the Oklahoma line.  Minimum temperatures will basically be in the
middle to upper 60s Friday and Saturday, and a little warmer in the
upper 60s to middle 70s both Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

VFR conditions will prevail across the TAF sites this afternoon with
a few high clouds AA100. Winds will generally be light and
variable. A chance of thunderstorms is possible this evening with
southeast winds at 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  97  67  84 /  50  30  50  40
GCK  69  95  66  82 /  50  30  50  40
EHA  70  98  65  81 /  40  30  30  40
LBL  72 100  67  83 /  40  30  40  40
HYS  70  92  68  80 /  90  40  40  40
P28  73  99  72  86 /  40  30  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
450 AM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-061000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
450 AM CDT MON AUG 5 2013 /350 AM MDT MON AUG 5 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL TO GOLFBALL
SIZE, FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING, HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, HAIL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THESE FROM THESE STORMS MID
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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