Hail in Kansas, April 17, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
657 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES INTO TONIGHT.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL OPEN TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND SOUTHWEST CONUS AND INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THE NAM MODEL
KEEPS THE COLD AIR AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO WESTERN KANSAS
TODAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY
THIS EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
CANNOT RESOLVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS LIKE THE NAM MODEL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH USING THE NAM FOR THIS FORECAST. CURRENT THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER JUST NORTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY WAS QUICKLY MOVING
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD BE EXITING THE HAYS AREA IN A FEW HOURS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ON THE NOSE OF A JET STREAK SHOWN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY, AND AUGMENTED BY WARM ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE COLD AIR AND WERE ELEVATED. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
TODAY AND TONIGHT MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO ASHLAND
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
FROM SAINT JOHN TO COLDWATER AND EAST. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO RANGE
FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG IN THE SEVERE AREA WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND POSSIBLY LARGER. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL STICK
AROUND UNTIL NOON, THEN PROFILES SHOW THE DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER
DECREASING TO SUPPORT DRIZZLE. HIGHS LOOK TO BE COOL AGAIN TODAY AND
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S EXCEPT AROUND 52 AT MEDICINE LODGE.

THIS EVENING NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 25 TO 40 MPH. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL ALSO
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH AROUND 1/2 INCH FROM
ELKHART TO GARDEN CITY AND HAYS AND WEST, AND LESS AS YOU GO EAST.
OVERNIGHTS LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 20S AND AROUND 32 AT
MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL
PULL AWAY FROM WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY, WITH WINDY, CLOUDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS ONLY SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL SUN. THERE IS ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING LIGHT SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND 5 TO 10 KT WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY FALL INTO THE
20S THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL (WINDS WILL BE 5
TO 10 KTS) FOR STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT COULD HAVE RESULTED
IN TEENS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY, 60S TO NEAR 70 SATURDAY
AND 60S SUNDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS OF THE SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, A STRONGER SYSTEM IS ADVERTISED TO DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN PROGRESS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE BY THIS TIME
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TAP MORE ARCTIC AIR SO THAT TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
INTO THE 20S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. SOME SNOW CANNOT
BE RULED OUT EITHER DEPENDING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
AREAS OF DRIZZLE TODAY WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS. COLD ADVECTION WILL
DEVELOP BY LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AND A
PERSISTENCE OF IFR CIGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  26  41  24 /  30  50  10   0
GCK  43  25  40  23 /  20  50  20   0
EHA  44  25  41  24 /  20  50  10   0
LBL  44  26  43  24 /  20  50  10   0
HYS  42  26  39  23 /  50  60  30  10
P28  50  31  44  26 /  50  60  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
332 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-181000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
332 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013 /232 AM MDT WED APR 17 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT,
MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY AND ASHLAND.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH LARGE HAIL AROUND QUARTER SIZE, WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF A LINE FROM
SAINT JOHN TO COLDWATER. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AT 25 TO 40 MPH AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT BLASTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS, BUT ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SOME STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
845 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     HAIL             5 WSW HAVILAND          37.59N 99.18W
04/17/2013  E1.00 INCH       KIOWA              KS   PUBLIC

&&

JRJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
859 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1229 AM     HAIL             COLDWATER               37.26N 99.34W
04/17/2013  E1.00 INCH       COMANCHE           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0105 AM     HAIL             5 WSW HAVILAND          37.59N 99.18W
04/17/2013  E1.00 INCH       KIOWA              KS   PUBLIC

0107 AM     HAIL             1 SSW HAVILAND          37.61N 99.11W
04/17/2013  M0.88 INCH       KIOWA              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JRJ