Hail in Iowa, June 21, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
657 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OTG/SPW AREA WEST TO A
LITTLE WEST OF FSD HAVE MADE SOME UPDATING NEEDED. ACTIVITY STILL
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND END LATER THIS MORNING BUT MUCH OF THIS
AREA WILL HAVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THAT DID NOT HAVE IT
EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER PART OF SOUTHWEST MN AS THE END OF
THE NIGHT APPROACHES SHOULD MOVE OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
DAYLIGHT HOURS. ONCE THEY DO...MID LEVEL WARMING SHOULD HOLD OFF
ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT MAINLY WEST AND
NORTH. THE NAM HAS BEEN DOING POORLY ON THIS WARMING AND THE GS
SEEMS BETTER...EVEN IN ITS LESS DETAIL...UPON EXAMINING SOUNDINGS
ON BUFKIT. EXPECT THE LOW TO REFORM A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AFTER
THIS WAVE PASSES THIS MORNING...AS PER GFS. THIS SHOULD BRING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THOUGH OF COURSE THERE WILL BE CU
DEVELOPING AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO GET MORE SOPPY. PARTLY
CLOUDY SHOULD THEREFORE BE THE WORD OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND
NEAR 90 UP TO SIOUX FALLS. STORMS THAT BEGIN TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...CONCENTRATED IN THE
NORTH...WITH A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS FOR ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THE INCREASINGLY
MUGGY WEATHER WILL BE FELT WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

SATURDAY WILL PRESENT THE SAME PROBLEM WITH DEVELOPMENT MOSTLY
CAPPED OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THEN LATE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHTTIME STORMS. ANOTHER FAIRLY HIGH CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST INSTEAD OF NORTHEAST. HEATING WILL GET ITS CHANCE
AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 90S
SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOS SOMEWHAT LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO FIND SLOW SEEPAGE OF DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...AND
STORMS ENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...A CHANCE MAY CONTINUE
FAR SOUTHEAST EVEN INTO MONDAY. SOME CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE
AREA WITH WEAK WAVE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. WARM BUT LESS HUMID AIR WILL RULE
MONDAY...THEN IT SHOULD GET MUGGY AGAIN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
BEFORE A SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR BY THURSDAY...AS BUILDING OF
ROCKIES RIDGE FORCES THE COOLING AND DRYING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

ISOLATED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR SOUTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN
WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP...LIKELY NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z AND
TRACK EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE NORTH OF
I90...HOWEVER COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS...THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
INDICATE SOME LOW END VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
THROUGH AROUND 18Z. STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE TEMPORARY MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
445 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-221200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
445 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.

FLOODING...
THE LITTLE SIOUX RIVER AROUND LINN GROVE IOWA WILL HOVER NEAR
BANK FULL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AGAIN LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GOLF BALL HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAY BE PRESENT AGAIN SUNDAY
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.