Damaging Winds in Indiana, June 24, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
738 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 101 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ONE IS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN US AND LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO CANADA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AS WELL AS STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TO
NORTHWEST OHIO. SURFACE TROF/BOUNDARY HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY THE
CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXTENDS FROM HILLSDALE MI TO
DANVILLE INDIANA. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY HAS
INCREASED...NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT
CAPE... THE CAP IS QUITE STRONG. THE COMBINATION OF THE CAP AND AN
ABUNDANCE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS...HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO REACH
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OVER MUDH OF NORTHERN INDIANA/SRN MI.

AS OF 17 UTC... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER NORTHEAST IL
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS STARTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE IL/IN
BORDER. WINDS HAVE STARTED IN INCREASE...WITH AN INCREASED MOISTURE
FLUX INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. RADAR AND SATELLITE CONFIRM THAT
EXISTENCE OF NUMEROUS AND PLENTIFUL BOUNDARIES...AND AS SUCH HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP CHC/SCT - SLGT CHC/ISOLD TSRA IN THE FORECAST. LIMITED
SHEAR AND VERY LIGHT FLOW...SO STORMS WILL AGAIN BE PULSE IN NATURE
AND CHALLENGING TO FORECAST.

LONGWAVE PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO MORPH...AND WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN US WILL HELP TO LIFT CONVECTION NORTHWARD. CONVECTION
FORMING IN THE PLAINS TONIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS ILLINOIS. CONVECTION FORMING AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY
WILL FORM FURTHER NORTH AND WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW EXPECT TO SEE
THIS BE MORE OF A FACTOR LEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

SUPPRESSING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE PATTERN ACTIVE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS SEVERAL WAVES OF CONVECTION MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LONG WAVE
TROUGHING SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...COLD FRONT...AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALL ARRIVE IN UNISON ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 C/KM
WILL YIELD AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. AS THESE
STORMS FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER 20Z...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 35 KTS WILL QUICKLY ORGANIZE THEM WITH A FEW SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHILE STORMS REMAIN DISCREET. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH IF THE
VEERED 50 KT LLJ FROM THE 12Z NAM VERIFIES...TORNADIC POTENTIAL
WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE. LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS IS
ANTICIPATED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES
TO INCREASE. SOME FLASH FLOOD RISK DOES EXIST WITH ANY TRAINING
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH PW VALUES
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES.

DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS FAVORABLE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RETROGRADING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH CUTS OFF
INTO A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL S/W
IMPULSES SWINGING AROUND THE TROUGH WILL HELP FORCE SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. HAVE KEPT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY...BUT IF 12Z ECMWF CUTOFF LOW
MATERIALIZES...LOW CHANCE DIURNAL POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

SEVERE SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY ENTERING INDIANA WILL ARRIVE AT KSBN
WITHIN THE HOUR AND AT KFWA AROUND 02Z. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS. INSTABILITY WILL
WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING BUT WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BEYOND THAT...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...BENTLEY
AVIATION...AGD

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TIME OF WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
746 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-260000-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
746 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013 /646 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.
DAMAGING WINDS OF UP TO 80 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-260000-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
746 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST.
DAMAGING WINDS OF UP TO 80 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS...ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE