A mesoscale convective system that originated over the Missouri Ozarks maintained strength as it moved through the middle Mississippi Valley during the overnight hours. Isolated wind damage accompanied this system.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A mesoscale convective system that originated over the Missouri Ozarks maintained strength as it moved through the middle Mississippi Valley during the overnight hours. Isolated wind damage accompanied this system. The system slowed down and then stalled as it crossed the Lower Ohio Valley very early in the morning. The stalled thunderstorm complex produced heavy rainfall amounts in extreme southern Illinois.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 9:16 PM CST, 2 hours 59 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1016 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 NOT MUCH TO ADD TO THE UPDATE SECTION BELOW. THE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KTS ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST SOUTHWEST INDICATED BY THE RAP MODEL WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SUSTAINING A SEVERE MCS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL THE BETTER SHEAR WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SO WOULD EXPECT A BETTER PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THOSE AREAS...WITH A LESSER CHANCE FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY. WITH WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...ANY SEGMENT OF THE LINE OF STORMS THAT GETS ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OR EVEN NORTH TO SOUTH WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 THE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNSET. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PUSHES THE MCS FROM THE ST LOUIS METRO EASTWARD ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE SYSTEM MAY BE SEVERE AS IT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT THE HRRR DOES INDICATE THAT IT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE KEVV TRI STATE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE AS WELL. AS IT MOVES EAST...IT WILL BE SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...REACHING THE KPAH AREA AROUND 3 AM. THIS SOUTHWARD MOVING PORTION OF THE MCS SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE. THE TIMING OF THE HRRR MAY BE OFF A FEW HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL EVOLUTION SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OF COURSE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...I-64 AREA. AT THIS TIME...FEEL THAT IT WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY ENOUGH AND THAT THE STRONGER HEAVIER CORES WILL BE LIMITED IN SPACE...SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 ALL EYES ON THE NEAR TERM AS WE REMAIN IN WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE S-SWLY FLOW...AWAITING ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT. VERY NEAR TERM ENVIRON IS WORKED OVER. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS THIS PM COULD DESTABILIZE AND ALLOW FOR POP UP STUFF...BUT MAIN THREAT AREAS LOOK TO BE WEST AND EAST OF OURS. TONIGHT...ALL CONDITIONS ARE PRIMED FOR CONVECTION/MCS TO FORM TO OUR WEST...PROBABLY FORMING/MIGRATING INTO SRN MO/NRN AR AREA BY MIDNIGHT...THEN PROPAGATING EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOT ALTOGETHER DIFFERENT FROM THIS MORNING'S ROUND...WHERE IT MOVES IN AND PRODUCES ABOUT IN INCH QPF ON AVERAGE (WEST OF MS RIVER) AND WANES THE FURTHER EAST IT TRAVELS. THE ATMOS SHOULD REST TMRW MORNING IN ITS WAKE...THEN RECHARGE TMRW PM AS THE UPPER LOW/HEIGHT FALLS MOVE IN AND THUS...DRIVE THE FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE PM/EVENING HOURS STILL LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCE TIME FOR STRONG/SVR STORMS...AND ANOTHER INCH OR SO (AVERAGE) QPF IS FORECAST. THIS PUTS STORM TOTALS AT ABOUT 2 INCHES...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 3 INCHES OR MORE IS NECESSARY FOR A WATCH. THEREFORE WE ARE INCLINED TO LAY OFF THAT HEADLINE FOR NOW AND JUST HEIGHTEN AWARENESS ON THE HWO/PRODUCTS. COLLAB COULD CHANGE THIS BUT GENERALLY/WATCHES POSTED TO OUR PERIPHERY ARE WHERE HIGHER QPF EXISTS ANYWAY. IF WE END UP DOING ONE/WE'LL PROB RUN THRU THE WHOLE EVENT FOR THE WHOLE AREA...STAY TUNED. FASTER TIMING TO SYSTEM PASSAGE/FROPA NOW HAS 12Z MODELING OF PCPN ENDING BY SAT NIGHT MIDNIGHT WITH DRY/COOLER AIR WORKING IN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HAS BEEN A DAILY TREND AND ONE WE'RE COMFORTABLE FOLLOWING. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 THE MED RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 5 WITH THE NEXT LONGWAVE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS. MEANWHILE...MONDAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY UNDER NWRLY TO WRLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SFC RIDGE. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARED TO DEPICT THE MID LEVEL LONGWAVE AS SHALLOWER THAN THE ECWMF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE GEM WAS PRETTY DYNAMIC TOO...AND HAD PCPN STARTING IN OUR WEST AFTER SUNRISE WED. THE MODEL BLEND PROVIDED VERY LIMITED POPS THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE EXACTLY ON THE DETAILS OF HOW MUCH LIFT MAY OCCUR IN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS. ON THU...AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY...MID LEVEL SHRTWV ENERGY SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACT ON THE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS THE AXIS OF THE MAIN WAVE DRAWS NEAR. A LOW LEVEL TROF/CONVERGENCE ZONE...SHOWN MORE PROMINENTLY BY THE 12Z GFS THAN THE 12Z ECMWF...SHOULD SET UP ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY THEN...HELPING TO FOCUS CONVECTION SOMEWHAT BETTER. BY EARLY FRI /DAY 7/...A CONVERGENCE ZONE/SFC WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHERE IN OUR VICINITY...INCREASING CHANCES OF GETTING WET TO ABOUT ONE OUT OF TWO. THE BEST QPF SEEMS MOST LIKELY THEN. EXPECT TEMPS TO START OUT ON THE COOL SIDE AND TO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH FRI TO CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 SHOULD SEE PERIODIC MID-LEVEL CEILINGS THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE MCS MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT REACHES KEVV AND KCGI JUST AFTER 06Z. KEVV WOULD HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEFTY WESTERLY GUSTS AS THE SYSTEM ARRIVES...BUT THEY SHOULD BE MUCH WEAKER AND MORE NORTHERLY AT KCGI. HAVE INSERTED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THUNDER IN A 4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP AT EACH SITE. ONCE THE MAIN LINE MOVES THROUGH A SITE...A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE AREA SHOULD BE DRYING OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...AND GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TAF SITES BEFORE THE END OF THIS 00Z PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BEYOND THIS PERIOD...AND THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && MESOSCALE...DRS UPDATE...DRS SHORT TERM...DH LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...DRS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 957 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-011000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 957 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 4 AM FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO PADUCAH AND CALHOUN KENTUCKY. A LARGE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN SEGMENTS OF THE LINE THAT ARE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH OR EVEN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN GENERAL...THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FORECAST TO WORSEN ON SOME AREA RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT. IF THEY DEVELOP...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG SOME AREA RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS IN THE TORNADO WATCH AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SPOTTERS THROUGHOUT THE AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT. DRS
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 84 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:12 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 3 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Shingles were blown off roofs. Three to six-inch diameter limbs were blown out of trees at the north end of town.
Winds gusted to 60 mph from Carterville across southwest Williamson County, resulting in downed tree limbs and power outages.
Vehicles stalled on a few water-covered roadways throughout the city.
In a very rural area of extreme southeast Williamson County, several trees were blown down and one pole barn was damaged.
A spotter near Round Knob measured 4.87 inches of rain. The majority of the heavy rain fell in a six-hour window ending at 0800 Local Standard Time. There was considerable street flooding in Metropolis. Two cars were flooded with about three inches of water in them.
A rainfall of 3.97 inches accumulated in less than four hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, June 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 451187, 451188, 458003, 451185, 453697, 453692.