Very heavy rain during the first few days of July caused rises on the Skillet Fork River. A low in the upper levels of the atmosphere moved west across the Ohio Valley.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Very heavy rain during the first few days of July caused rises on the Skillet Fork River. A low in the upper levels of the atmosphere moved west across the Ohio Valley. A nearly stationary frontal boundary touched off several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Tropical rains fell with high rainfall rates. Where the heaviest rains fell, totals were between 2 and 5 inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 2:38 AM CST, 22 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 338 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013 SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND NEAR I-64 IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR KMVN...AND IT MAY BE FORCING THIS SHALLOW WEAK DEVELOPMENT. ALREADY ADDED 20-30 POPS OVER THIS REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE SREF AND HRRR SHOW THE CURRENT ACTIVITY PRETTY WELL...AND THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE FOR THIS ZONE OF SHOWERS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE WABASH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT IN A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BAND THROUGH THE DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING SHOULD BE DRY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE OVERWHELMING SIGNAL IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO TAP SOME DEEP MOISTURE AND DRAG IT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA IN THE FORM SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING JUST OFF THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE BACKED TO EASTERLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL...THE SOUNDINGS LOOK RATHER TROPICAL...EXCEPT THE MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. LOOK FOR ALOT OF SHOWERS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE PENNYRILE BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE PENNYRILE AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH THE DAY. NOT SURE JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER THERE WILL BE...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF/WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A RATHER WET...DREARY DAY OVER THE PENNYRILE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND BY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WESTWARD ALL THE WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. AS THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GENERAL DRYING TREND/LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY FRIDAY...THE SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER TO NEARLY DUE SOUTH AND THE FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT/DISCERNIBLE DISTURBANCE TO FOCUS CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A DIURNAL EVENT FRIDAY. WILL POST 50 POPS IN THE FAR EAST AND TAPER TO SLIGHTS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. WOULD EXPECT THE PRIMARY CONCERN FRIDAY TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013 THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THE IMPACT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...WITH WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA SEEING THE MOST CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR POPS/WEATHER. GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE CENTERS...THE IMPRESSED LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN FIXED ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH POP/WEATHER CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRECLUDES ANY ONE LOCATION SEEING MUCH MORE THAN FIFTY PERCENT COVERAGE. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA...THERMAL DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BECOME MINIMIZED AS EQUILIBRIUM IS ESTABLISHED. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY FLOW /INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR/ INTO THE AREA...INSOLATION AND SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN SHEAR WILL LEAD TO GREATER RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. BY NEXT MONDAY...THE BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERS COMBINED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH FASTER ZONAL FLOW IN THE NORTH. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE WESTERLIES AND MINOR DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE FIELDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH TIME DUE TO WEAK FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE. JUST BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD...GOING TOWARD JULY 11-12...THERE COULD BE A MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AS THE WESTERLIES DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS A RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE WESTERN U.S. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013 IT LOOKS LIKE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL WIN OUT OVER FOG THIS MORNING...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER KEVV IN THE NEXT HOUR AND WILL LIKELY REACH KOWB BY AROUND 08Z. GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT DISSIPATE UNTIL 14Z-16Z. KCGI IS CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LOW AND WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST TO LOSE THE LOW CLOUDS. LOOKING FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO MIX OUT AND LEAVE BEHIND A SCATTERED 3-4KFT DECK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT DO NOT FEEL MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL SUFFICIENTLY TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A MODEST SOUTHWEST WIND WILL MIX DOWN AT KOWB AND KEVV THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT GUIDANCE AT KPAH AND KCGI IS WAFFLING FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE LIGHT WINDS TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...DRS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 725 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-032015- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 725 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT HEAVY RAIN HAS RESULTED IN HIGH WATER ISSUES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR FROM AROUND MOUNT VERNON OVER TOWARD THE MOUNT CARMEL AREA. A FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR THIS AREA. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SLIM. IN FACT...LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OR PART OF THE QUAD STATE REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ONGOING THREAT. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE WABASH RIVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. JP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
312 AM CDT WED JUL 03 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0433 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 W WEST SALEM 38.52N 88.06W
07/02/2013 M5.10 INCH EDWARDS IL TRAINED SPOTTER
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE SUNDAY MORNING.
0434 PM FLOOD DIX 38.44N 88.94W
07/02/2013 JEFFERSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
BIG MUDDY RIVER IN GRAND PRAIRIE TOWNSHIP FLOODED WITH
ROAD IMPASSABLE. NUMEROUS COUNTRY ROADS COVERED WITH
WATER. DRUM CREEK IN ROME TOWNSHIP FLOODED WITH ROADS
IMPASSABLE IN THAT AREA. DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS ENDING
AT 430 PM CDT TUESDAY...APPROXIMATELY 4.50 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL...WITH 3.10 INCHES OF THAT RAIN FALL BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 430 PM CDT TUESDAY.
&&
K. SMITHThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding occurred along the Skillet Fork River. Low-lying fields, woodlands, and county roads were inundated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, July 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 464189.