S. in early July featuring a persistent upper level trough over and just west of the Mississippi Valley and a downstream ridge off the Mid Atlantic Coast.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TAE wrote it up.
A very anomalous pattern set up across the U.S. in early July featuring a persistent upper level trough over and just west of the Mississippi Valley and a downstream ridge off the Mid Atlantic Coast. This brought deep layer moist tropical air into the Southeast for several consecutive days resulting in torrential rains, flash flooding and river flooding. While several episodes of severe weather also occurred during this period, the heavy rain and accompanying flooding were the primary impacts. Between 10 and 20 inches of rain fell in a three day period between July 2-4, and serious flooding occurred across portions of the Florida Panhandle with Walton, Holmes, and Washington counties declared federal disaster areas. Damage estimates include $11 million for Walton county, $18.7 million for Washington County (including $3.7 million for the town of Vernon alone), $8.5 million for Holmes county, and $1 million for Bay county. Most of the damage was due to roads and bridges, but some structures were also affected.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 7:32 AM CST, 2 hours 28 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
932 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2013
.UPDATE...
Rainy morning so far with almost all of the two-thirds of our
forecast area already getting rain. Expect showers to spread
across the area today. Environment is still looking viable for some
strong to severe storms today. Please see previous discussion
below for more details.
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The amplified pattern with troughing in the central part of the
country and ridging off the east coast is causing deep southerly
flow over the CWA. This is a very moist air tropical air mass
with precipitable water values anywhere from 2-2.3 in. With PWATs
this high, the atmosphere becomes a very efficient rain producer.
Therefore have raised PoPs to 100% for the afternoon. Rain will
become widespread throughout the day. Generally expect 1-2 inches
with locally heavier amounts possible.
Positive differential vorticity advection along with other QG
forcing ahead of a digging shortwave is forcing pressure falls at
the surface, thus strengthening a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico.
It is currently off the Louisiana coast, and is expected to move
eastward and strengthen throughout the day. The strengthening low
will increase the pressure gradient adding to an increase in winds.
As the upper level shortwave and surface low move east, there will
be an increase in wind shear allowing for a low end chance of severe
weather. This afternoon 0-6 km shear will increase to around 35
knots with the majority of the shear concentrated in the lowest 1
km. This CAPE/Shear profile will create a storm environment with the
potential of producing shallow supercells. The environment isn't
overly impressive, but the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put our
area in a 2% tornado risk tomorrow for tornadoes.
With all of the rain and cloud cover, expect high temperatures to
only only reach the lower to mid 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...
The threat for heavy rain will continue as the low over the Gulf
of Mexico drifts north toward the coast. Model consensus brings
the low center ashore near or just west of Mobile Bay on Thursday.
Deep layer onshore through through the entire column will maintain
precipitable water values well over two inches through at least
Friday. One of the primary hazards continues to be flooding. We
have had several days with localized heavy rains already and the
potential exists for several more inches of rain over a large area
over the next 36 to 48 hours or so. Additional details on this
threat can be found in the hydrology section below.
As the surface low deepens and approaches the coast, the threat
for high surf and associated rip current risk will also increase.
A high risk for rip currents is already in effect for the
Panhandle and this will likely be extended east to Franklin County
for Thursday. A high surf advisory will also likely be needed as
it appears criteria will be met early Thursday morning and
continue on into early Friday morning.
Finally, the severe weather and tornado threat could continue into
the night with 0-1 km bulk shear values holding in the 20-25 knot
range.
&&
.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]...
The upper level trough finally gets squeezed out over the weekend as
the ridge out west begins to merge with the Bermuda ridge. The deep
plume of tropical moisture will persist across the entire CWA
through Saturday and then only over the western zones Sunday as
drier air filters in from the east. Monday looks like a relatively
quiet day with respect to convection. However, this may be short
lived as models show a tropical wave crossing south Florida Monday
night and entering the eastern Gulf Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
[Through 12z Thursday] Showers and thunderstorms this morning
primarily affecting the Wrn terminals at ECP, DHN, and TLH with
MVFR-IFR cigs and vsbys. As showers and thunderstorms become more
widespread, MVFR-IFR restrictions will prevail at all terminals through
the remaining TAF Period.
&&
.MARINE...
This is not shaping up to be a good extended holiday weekend for
boating across the local marine area. Low pressure will develop
over the east central Gulf of Mexico today and drift north toward
the coast, coming ashore near or just west of Mobile Bay on
Thursday. Winds will increase across the marine area with advisory
conditions expected across the western waters by this afternoon.
These conditions will spread to the central waters by tonight, but
should not reach as far east as the Apalachee Bay. Seas south of
the Florida Panhandle could reach 11 feet Thursday morning and
gale force gusts cannot be ruled out at that time. After the low
moves ashore, conditions will gradually improve on Friday.
However, another period of cautionary conditions is possible on
Saturday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
With abundant rainfall forecast, red flag criteria will not be a
concern for some time.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The anomalous mid/upper level trough with its axis extending from
the Upper Mississippi Valley, south to the Southern Plains has set
up deep layer southerly flow across the eastern U.S. Favorable
low/mid level forcing is forecast to set up in an area from
approximately Tallahassee west to Pensacola. Within this ribbon
of forcing, widespread 4- to 7-inch rainfall amounts are possible
with double that amount a possibility in isolated areas. So far,
widespread amounts near an inch have fallen over the past 24
hours. Since yesterday afternoon, some locations across
Leon/Wakulla/Jefferson counties have received on average 3 to 5
inches of rain, with over 7 inches reported in Natural Bridge.
These locations will be highly susceptible to flooding over the
next 24 hours.
With respect to area rivers, the aforementioned rainfall has
resulted in a rise to Minor Flood Stage along the St. Marks River
near Newport, and likely north and south of there. Depending on the
exact set-up of the prolonged rain, the St. Marks river may remain
in flood stage for several days. Further, since the best chance of
heavy rain will remain primarily across North Florida, the Apalachicola,
Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, Chipola, and Sopchoppy rivers will have
the greatest chance of being impacted. At this time, due to current
low flows ensemble guidance and current forecasts only forecast
these rivers to reach action or minor flood stage at worst. The
exception would be the St. Marks River, where prolonged heavy rains
could take it into Moderate flood stage if the higher rainfall
totals are realized there. Additionally, flashy creeks or streams
throughout North Florida should be on high alert and monitor local
forecasts for the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 84 73 87 71 91 /100 90 80 40 50
Panama City 83 75 86 75 87 /100 90 80 60 70
Dothan 85 72 85 71 87 /100 90 80 60 70
Albany 85 72 87 72 89 /100 90 70 40 60
Valdosta 85 72 88 71 90 /100 80 60 30 50
Cross City 85 73 88 71 92 /100 70 60 40 40
Apalachicola 85 76 84 75 88 /100 90 80 50 70
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-
Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland
Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland
Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South
Walton-Washington.
GA...FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-
Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-
Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-
Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.
AL...FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
Henry-Houston.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
Thursday for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Waters from Suwannee River
to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
Friday for Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20
to 60 NM.
&&
Update...Moore
Near Term...Wool/Navarro
Short Term/Marine...Wool
Long Term...Barry
Aviation...Moore/Navarro
Fire Weather...Harrigan/Navarro
Hydrology..HarriganPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1116 AM EDT WED JUL 03 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSE APALACHEE REGIONA 30.37N 84.14W
07/03/2013 M6.95 INCH LEON FL NWS EMPLOYEE
RAINFALL TOTAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM THIS MORNING.
1000 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 SE WOODVILLE 30.26N 84.19W
07/03/2013 M8.34 INCH WAKULLA FL MESONET
RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR FOR TUESDAY AND TODAY AT CAFWN /
NWFWMD GAGE NEAR COMMERCE BOULEVARD.
1015 AM HEAVY RAIN SSW STANDLEYS STORE 30.15N 84.21W
07/03/2013 M5.93 INCH WAKULLA FL MESONET
RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR FOR TUESDAY AND TODAY AT NWFWMD
GAGE NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE ST. MARKS AND WAKULLA
RIVERS.
1050 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 ESE WOODVILLE 30.30N 84.17W
07/03/2013 M8.47 INCH LEON FL MESONET
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR TUESDAY AND TODAY SO FAR AT CAFWN /
NWFWMD GAGE NEAR NATURAL BRIDGE ROAD.
1100 AM HEAVY RAIN INLET BEACH 30.28N 86.01W
07/03/2013 M6.25 INCH WALTON FL BROADCAST MEDIA
RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE ABOUT MIDNIGHT. RELAYED BY WJHG-TV
METEOROLOGIST.
1100 AM HEAVY RAIN WAKULLA SPRINGS 30.23N 84.30W
07/03/2013 M5.85 INCH WAKULLA FL MESONET
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR TUESDAY AND TODAY SO FAR AT NWFWMD
GAUGE AT WAKULLA SPRINGS STATE PARK.
&&
08-LAMERSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1120 AM EDT WED JUL 03 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1023 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 17 S ST GEORGE ISLAND 29.42N 84.86W
07/03/2013 M41 MPH GMZ755 FL C-MAN STATION
PEAK WIND OF 36 KNOTS MEASURED AT THE AF TOWER.
&&
08-LAMERSThe Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 32 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:57 UTC.
24 flash flood, 11 thunderstorm wind, 4 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Numerous roads were closed across Holmes county due to flash flooding.
Several road closures occurred, especially around Vernon. At least 5 homes and a school had water enter the structures. Some evacuations occurred near Holmes Creek in low lying areas due to rapidly rising water.
Several road closures occurred across Washington county due to flash flooding. In particular, Moss Hill road was closed between Highways 77 and 79 due to swiftly flowing water that was said to be a couple of feet deep.
Water was flowing over Church Street at an estimated depth of 8-10 inches just north of U.S. Highway 98. Water was also reported over about a dozen other roads in Walton via the Walton Alert facebook page.
A couple of vehicles stalled in high water near the Monroe and Thomasville Road split.
There were multiple reports of trees down near the city of Madison and in the eastern part of the county.
The City of Tallahassee Twitter feed reported 17 trees down in Tallahassee. Monetary damage was estimated.
Disastrous areal flooding occurred across Holmes county with most county roads flooded. Transportation was severely impacted across the county with schools closed and a federal disaster declaration obtained. Preliminary damage estimates for the county were around $8.5 million.
Disastrous areal flooding occurred across Walton county with a large number of county roads flooded. Transportation was severely impacted across the county. A listing of incidences of water over roads or flood-damaged roads in the county included 87 total reports. Preliminary damage estimates for the county were around $11 million.
Wa Clark Road was closed at the bridge due to flash flooding.
Paulk Road was closed due to flash flooding.
Tup McWaters Road was closed at the west end at the bridge due to flash flooding.
Flash flooding closed Grover Lewis Road.
A tree was blown down at the intersection of Sunflower and Elgin Road with no other damage reported in the area.
The public reported via social media that Cane Mill Road was underwater.
The public reported via social media that Happy Hollow Road was underwater near the intersection with Sheffield Road.
A tree was blown down and blocking Bayshore Dr.
A broadcast meteorologist from Macon, GA on vacation reported shingles peeling off the roof at the Gulf Highlands Resort.
WJHG-TV relayed a reported of a large pine tree blown down.
Twelve buildings were confirmed to have water entering them in or near Vernon. Water was also approaching the shelter location, so the shelter had to be moved. There were also still numerous road closures in the area.
Water was at least 6 inches deep up to the height of a guardrail on Alf Coleman road just south of Highway 98 at the initial time of the report. Flooding across the area worsened considerably through the day as heavy rain continued across the area for several hours.
A tree was blown down and blocking Thomas Dr.
A barn was damaged, and a tree was blocking the road.
Water rose up to at least 1.5 feet deep on parts of Front Beach Rd.
Water was flowing over numerous roads in Lynn Haven via a social media report from a WJHG-TV meteorologist.
Several trees were blown down in the area with one tree blocking Bonifay Gritney Road.
The public reported via social media that East Longround Bay Road had water flowing over it.
The public reported via social media that Adolph Whitaker Road was underwater at the bridge.
Howell Williams Road was flooded at the bridge via a public report on social media.
Considerable flash flooding was reported across Panama City with reports of water entering some homes and businesses.
A single tree was blown down onto power lines and blocking the road with no other damage reported in the area.
The City of Tallahassee Twitter feed reported 6 trees down in Tallahassee. Monetary damage was estimated.
The water on Thomas Dr near Raven St was reported to be just over 1.5 feet deep.
Sewer drains were overflowing near downtown Panama City per a News Herald employee.
Multiple photos were received showing several cars stalled in deep water in the Panama City Beach area. Water had also encroached into some buildings in both Panama City Beach and Panama City. The flooding was described as some of the worst residents had seen in that area.
Disastrous areal flooding occurred across Washington county with most county roads flooded. Transportation was severely impacted across the county with schools closed and a federal disaster declaration obtained. Preliminary damage estimates for the county were around $18.7 million.
Persistent heavy rains over a multi-day period led to significant areal flooding across Bay county. Preliminary damage estimates were around $1 million with significant damage to roads occurring. Many rural roads became impassible and cut off residents in the area for extended periods of time.
The public reported knee deep water at the intersection of Frank Nelson Dr and Mercedes Ave in Panama City.
The public reported via social media that Wabash Ave in Springfield was flooded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 469461, 469476, 469483, 469466, 469469, 469369, 469366, 471426, 471429, 471363, 471366, 471367, 471369, 469378, 471371, 471373, 469377, 469376, 469375, 469485, 471400, 469374, 469372, 471402, 471404, 469373, 471375, 471376, 471377, 471406, 469371, 469370, 471407, 471410, 471383, 471431, 471424, 471397, 471398.