Drought in Hawaii, November 1 to 30, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU OCT 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SECTIONS...WITH THE STRONGER TRADES CARRYING
SOME SHOWERS LEEWARD AS WELL. WINDS MAY WEAKEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PASSING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS AT TIMES THIS EVENING
AS A LINE OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST REACHES THE STATE.
TRADE WINDS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST IS APPROACHING THE
ISLANDS AT TIMES...AND WILL REACH NEAR KAUAI EARLY SATURDAY THEN
STALL. IN THE MEAN TIME...THIS APPROACHING TROUGH WILL KEEP AIRMASS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE IN THE ISLAND VICINITY AND WILL ALLOW THE
PASSING SHOWERS TO BE ENHANCED AT TIMES. THEREFORE TRADE WIND
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. SOME SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AND
MAY REACH THE LEE AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS UNDER THE
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS.

THIS GENERAL WEATHER SCENARIO WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BECOME MORE VIGOROUS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY BY THE
WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE INSTABILITIES THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM MAY STAY NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...THOUGH IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE ISLAND WEATHER MAY
BE STRONGER...RESULTING IN AIRMASS OVER THE STATE BECOMING UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW...SHALL STAY WITH THE ENHANCED TRADE SHOWERS FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS UPON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NORTH/NORTHWEST OF
THE STATE BY TUESDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS ON WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
LOCATED...THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE ISLAND WEATHER NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST ALL SOLUTIONS POINT TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS WITH THE SHOWERS RIDING IN WITH THE
TRADE WINDS. THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR MAINLY THE
WINDWARD AND MTN AREAS OF ALL ISLANDS.

SO FAR NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT. WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR LO LVL TURB
OVR AND IMMEDIATELY S THROUGH W OF MTN AS THE TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER
COASTAL WATERS NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS. THE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE
AREAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD IMPROVE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THEN.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU AS
ANOTHER WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES. LOOKS LIKE THIS NEW SWELL HAS
YET TO REACHED KAUAI AT THIS TIME...AS THE LATEST READINGS FROM THE
NEAR SHORE BUOY JUST NORTH OF KAUAI ARE NOT SHOWING THE LONGER
PERIOD ELEVATED SWELL. IT WILL SOON BE AS THIS INCOMING SWELL HAS
ALREADY REACHED THE BUOY FAR NORTHWEST OF KAUAI EARLIER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTED ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO AFFECT THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-
MOLOKAI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR MAALAEA
BAY...THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS AND SOUTH BIG ISLAND
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

AVIATION...LAU
PUBLIC/MARINE...HUI