High Surf in Hawaii, March 10 to 11, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
100 PM HST SUN MAR 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
INCLEMENT WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL ISLANDS
THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS THERE. SOME OF THIS
WEATHER MAY MOVE THROUGH THE BIG ISLAND TUESDAY. THEREAFER UNTIL
FRIDAY...A WEAK TRADE WIND FLOW RULES WITH SHOWERS FAVORING THE
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE ISLANDS THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESRPEAD SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INITIAL ASSESSMENT HAS THE FRONT IN THE KAUAI CHANNEL AS OF 9 AM
HST. THE ECMWF MODEL APPEARS TO FIT THE CURRENT SITUATION BEST WITH
THE SHOWERS CONCENTRATED ACROSS OAHU AND PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO EASE THROUGH OAHU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL
ACROSS MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT. THERE THE FRONT WEAKENS TO A TROUGH
MONDAY. SHOWER-WISE...EXPECT THE SHOWERY WEATHER TO EASE ON TO LANAI
AND MAUI AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND WILL BE THE AREA
OF PRIMARY FOCUS. THE FORECAST WAS BEEFED UP A LITTLE WHILE AGO TO
INCLUDE THE VALLEY ISLE AND LANAI WITH THE LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. A
FLOOD WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY IS UNDER CONSIDERATION. I FEEL CONFIDENT
KAUAI IS SAFE FROM THIS INCLEMENT WEATHER...AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL
BE FINE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST OF TONIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE SUMMITS OF THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 6 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL REASSESS IT THIS AFTERNOON WHETHER OR NOT TO
CONTINUE IT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOTH ECMWF /EC/ AND GFS HAVE THE SHOWERS ABATING TONIGHT...BUT THEY
DIFFER FOR MONDAY...WHERE THE EC HAS LIMITED SHOWERS BUT THE GFS HAS
HEAVY SHOWERS FOR FOR OAHU. MY ASSESSMENT IS...ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY EASING OFF TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE RIPE FOR
FLARE UPS. I FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. BELIEVE THE BEST SOLUTION IS TO BROAD BRUSH THE FORECAST
AND KEEP SHOWERS LIKELY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MONDAY FOR THE
CENTRAL ISLANDS.

IT IS STILL BREEZY OVER MAUI AND LANAI...BUT WE EXPECT IT TO
DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON. MOLOKAI AND OAHU HAVE LIGHT SOUTHERLIES
WHILE KAUAI IS UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLIES.

BEYOND MONDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE BIG ISLAND
TUESDAY...SO WE EXPECT THE INCLEMENT WEATHER TO SPREAD TO THAT
PORTION OF THE STATE. THE TROUGH MOVES TO JUST EAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS FOR ALL MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BOTH EC AND GFS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO. SINCE THE
TRADES WILL BE SHALLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MARGINAL...SCATTERED
SHOWERS IS A LIKELIHOOD FOR THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF ALL
ISLANDS.

LONG STORY SHORT...BETWEEN THURSDAY AND THE WEEKEND...THE EC AND GFS
AGREE ON A FRONT DROPPING DOWN ON KAUAI FRIDAY WITH PRE FRONTAL
ACTIVITY FOR THE CENTRAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND INSTABILITY OVER MOST OF THE ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR VIS/CIG...AND ISOL
IFR CIG/VIS...IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY TONIGHT. AREAS PRIMARILY IMPACTED INCLUDE OAHU AND MAUI
COUNTY...WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE CURRENTLY EXISTS. AS A
RESULT...AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AIRMET ZULU FOR
MODERATE RIME ICING CONTINUES FOR OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEW NORTHWEST SWELL APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED AT 12 AND HALF FEET
SIG WAVE HEIGHT AT BUOY 51101. THE PERIOD HAS DROPPED DOWN TO 12
FROM14 SECONDS. THUS THE SURF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE REST OF
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW WEEK WEEK...THERE
WILL BE A SERIES OF NORTH AND NORTHWEST SWELLS WITH SURF HEIGHTS
REMAINING BELOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED NORTHWEST SWELL HAS CAUSED SEAS TO BUILD TO THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA /SCA/ CRITERIA FROM TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR WATERS EXPOSED TO THIS SWELL. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA THRESHOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI
OAHU AND MOLOKAI AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI TO UNTIL 6 PM HST
MONDAY.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 600 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS...
EXCEPT MAALAEA BAY.

&&

LAU