Drought in Hawaii, June 1 to 30, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI MAY 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A TRADE WIND PATTERN IS EXPECT TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN A RAIN PATTERN OF MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING
SHOWERS...FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOW END. THE DAYS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY THE LEEWARD BEACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WINDY WEEKEND IS POSSIBLE THIS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD NORTHEAST OF HERE.

A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS 1600 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS THIS
EVENING NEAR 36N135W. A FRONT 600 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI...IS SLATED
TO FALL APART IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...NOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL ALLOW HIGHER PRESSURE TO FILL IN THE AREA NOW OCCUPIED BY THE
FRONT. THE END RESULT IS TRADES BUILDING TO MODERATE TO STRONG AREA
WIDE BY SUNDAY. WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS OUTLOOK CLOSELY AS WINDY
TRADES MAY WARRANT WIND ADVISORIES ON SUNDAY...OR SOONER. THIS WINDY
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND...A DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL BE
SPREADING OVER THE 50TH STATE AND PERSIST INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE INVERSION IS SLATED TO LOWER FROM THE CURRENT 6 TO 9
THOUSAND FEET TO 4 TO 7 THOUSAND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ALL IN ALL...AFTER A STRING OF ACTIVE...MUGGY WEATHER THAT BEGAN IN
LATE MARCH...WE ARE LOOKING FORWARD IN HAVING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NICE...DRY...TRADE WIND WEATHER FOR ALL ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY
WINDY AT THE START.

A REMINDER...THE 2013 HURRICANE SEASON FOR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...
STARTS ON JUNE 1. THE FIRST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC WILL BE ISSUED AT 2AM HST SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN ENOUGH OVERNIGHT
TO REQUIRE AN AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
CRITERIA OVER THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE BIG
ISLAND AND THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE
TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND...THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL MARINE ZONES.

DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING TRADES...CHOPPY SURF WILL BUILD ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. THE CURRENT
FORECAST KEEPS SURF HEIGHTS BELOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A FEW
SETS MAY APPROACH THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SOME WINDWARD
BEACHES / OUTER REEFS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN THE TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST.

A NEW SMALL...BUT LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A SMALL BUMP IN SURF HEIGHTS ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THIS WEEKEND. A LARGER SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING MONDAY
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SURF HEIGHTS WELL ABOVE THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY THRESHOLD ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE STATE BY
TUESDAY. THIS ELEVATED SURF IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

A SMALL NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SMALL SURF ALONG NORTH
FACING SHORES ON SATURDAY. A LOW-END MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL
ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A NOTICEABLE BUMP IN
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 600 PM HST MONDAY FOR THE
WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

PUBLIC..AVIATION...LAU
MARINE...HOUSTON