Drought in Hawaii, July 1 to 31, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN JUN 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP
A MODERATE TRADE WIND REGIME IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS TO KEEP FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE LARGER SHOWERS REACHING LEEWARD
SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR NNW OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS
KEEPING A TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING MODERATE. LATEST WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA INDICATE RIDGING BUILDING
ALOFT OVER THE ISLANDS FROM E TO W. SUBSIDENCE IS INCREASING AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE AREA AND BRINGING A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IN PLACE...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS
TO ESTABLISH AT LEAST THROUGH LATE MON.

LATEST DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU RADAR NETWORK
SHOW MINIMAL SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE ISLANDS...AND FOR
MON...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND MAINLY OVER WINDWARD/MAUKA
AREAS. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL LEEWARD
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. INFRA-RED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS...WHICH MAY BRING A
SMALL INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS LATE MON THROUGH WED.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE
E...POSITIONING ITSELF FAR NNE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN BY LATE WED.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS OF COSME WILL GRADUALLY MERGE
WITH A SFC TROUGH OVER THE NE-CPAC AND A MID TO UPPER LVL TROUGH FAR
NE OF OF THE ALOHA STATE. THESE FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE E
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...WHICH WILL RELAX PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A DECREASE IN TRADE WINDS SPEEDS THU-SAT. THE TRADES
COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SEA/LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/LATE NIGHT...MAINLY OVER LEEWARD AND
SOUTHERN COASTS. MODELS BEGIN STRENGTHENING THE HIGH PRESSURE ON
SUN...WITH THE TRADES INCREASING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ALONG WINDWARD FACING
SLOPES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT HST OVER WINDWARD MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND...INCLUDING PHTO.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS THIS WEEK.

THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH MON.
A SMALL S SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUE...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SMALL S SWELL LATE WED AND INDEPENDENCE DAY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...HOUSTON