Winter Storm in Georgia, February 2 to 3, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
931 AM EST SAT FEB 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL COVER THE EAST STATES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM...MRX RADAR INDICATING SNOW IS FALLING OUT OF THE CLOUDS
SEEN ON SATELLITE OVER TN/KY...BUT THE ECHOES DIMINISH IN LOW LEVELS
AS THE SNOW SUBLIMATES IN THE DRY NEAR SFC AIR. INDEED NONE OF THE
EAST TN OBS REPORT SNOW ATTM. A FEW VERY WEAK RETURNS ARE ALREADY
SEEN OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS BUT SAME STORY APPLIES. HOWEVER STRONGER
RETURNS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU RAPIDLY AND VIA
WET BULB EFFECT THESE WILL MOISTEN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. LATEST RAP
AND NAM SUGGEST SOME PRECIP COULD REACH THE GROUND IN THE SW NC MTNS
BEFORE 18Z...SO BROUGHT ONSET OF POPS TO 15Z THERE. AFTERNOON TREND
LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS
AND SKY COVER...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT TO KEEP CLEAR SKIES LONGER OVER
THE PIEDMONT AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THERE.

AT 300 AM EST SATURDAY...A MEAN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN USA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF CHANNELED VORT
MAXES ROUNDING THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. MOIST LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
MIDDAY...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MINIMAL WARM NOSE JUST BELOW 850 MB
EARLY...IT IS GONE BY THE TIME  PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. WET BULB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SNOW IN WESTERN NC...AND INITIALLY RAIN ALONG
INTERSTATE 85 IN SC AND GA. BY EVENING RAIN IS CONFINED TO THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...BUT PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FIRST
UPPER IMPULSE. LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SW TO WNW AFTER MIDNIGHT...
SETTING UP A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NC MOUNTAINS GENERALLY BORDERING TN. WINDS
WILL EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...AND MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINOUS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
NC FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS BORDERING SC.  HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN SEVERAL
CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...CLIPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY LEAVING NW FLOW SNOW IN ITS
WAVE ACROSS THE MTNS. THE SNOW DISSIPATES THRU THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENUF MOISTURE FOR AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TN BORDER...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ELSEWHERE. SOME CLOUDS WILL SPILL OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...ESP ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE
MORNING...BUT A DRY FCST IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE MTNS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW ELSEWHERE.

HEIGHTS RISE AND FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL MONDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL
WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT WAVES MOVE TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NITE. AT
THE SFC...HIGHS PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR MONDAY THEN MOVES EAST MON
NITE AS A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.
GUIDANCE SHOWS VARYING SUPPORT FOR SOME PRECIP MOVING INTO THE MTNS
LATE MON NITE. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS SLIGHT CHC INTO THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES BY MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW FOR THE NRN MTNS
WITH SLEET OF FREEZING RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL AND SRN MTNS. FOR
SIMPLICITY HAVE JUST GONE WITH RAIN OR SNOW BASED ON SFC WET BULB
TEMPS. THAT SAID...DO NOT HAVE ANY QPF THIS PERIOD...SO CHC OF ANY
ACCUMULATING PRECIP IS VERY LOW. LOWS SUN NITE AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL OVER NC AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW UPSTATE AND NE GA.
HIGHS NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY WITH LOWS NEAR TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL MON NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EST SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.  THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TUESDAY EVENING. ONLY
SLIGHT POPS COVERS THE LIMITED AREA WHERE ANY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THE LOCATION OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING
CENTERED AROUND OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA 00Z THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL
BE POSITIONED FOR A CAD ON THURSDAY AND EXPECT AT LEAST A CATEGORY
OF COOLING ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH TRANSITIONS OFFSHORE. THE HIGH
WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM 00Z TO 12Z FRIDAY AND
BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR NC MTNS EARLY FRIDAY. THE LATEST RUNS
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRIER FOR OUR AREA AND WILL TREND THAT WAY.
SEEMS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ANY PRECIP NEXT FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING THURSDAY WITH THE
WEAK CAD IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT /15Z UPDATE/...VFR. LIGHT SE WIND VEERS TO THE SW TODAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. OCCASIONAL LOW END GUSTS
ARE LIKELY. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING. CIRRUS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...FORMING A CIG BY EARLY AFTN. THE CIG
WILL LOWER TO LOW VFR LATER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SLEET MAY APPROACH THE FIELD THIS
EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CALM WINDS BECOME SW TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...AND WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING TO BE GUSTY TONIGHT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL
VEER TO THE NW. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS BECOME GUSTY AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AT KAND. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CHANCES WILL BE TOO LOW
TO MENTION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
RETREAT TOWARD THE TN BORDER LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AT MID WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY IMPACT.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>052-058-059-062.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JAT/WIMBERLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
410 AM EST SAT FEB 2 2013

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-062-031000-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-
410 AM EST SAT FEB 2 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST
SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GAZ010-NCZ053-063>065-501-503-505-SCZ001>003-031000-
RABUN-BUNCOMBE-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
410 AM EST SAT FEB 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE
ARRIVING WITH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHILE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...IT IS
EXPECTED TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS...WITH WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH GUSTING TO
45 MPH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506>510-SCZ004>014-019-031000-
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
410 AM EST SAT FEB 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1019 AM EST SAT FEB 2 2013

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062-021800-
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...
ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN
1019 AM EST SAT FEB 2 2013

...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA BY NOON...

AT 1000 AM...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF SNOW MOVING
ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE. A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW WAS RECENTLY REPORTED
AT CROSSVILLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE FAR
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW COULD RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES UP TO AN
INCH PER HOUR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES AND THE NEWFOUND MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...
EVEN THE SURROUNDING VALLEYS COULD SEE PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW.

LANE