Winter Weather in Georgia, February 19, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
348 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICKLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TONIGHT
AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD EXTREME SOUTHWEST NC ATTM IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY. ELEVATIONS
ABOVE ABOUT 3500 REMAIN VERY COOL...WITH RIDGES AND PEAKS ABOVE 5000
FEET STILL WELL IN THE 20S. WHILE THERE WILL BE WARMING ALOFT...IT
APPEARS THAT ANY TRANSITION TO LIQUID ABOVE ABOUT 4000 FEET WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE EVENT...SO THIS LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY A
SNOW/SLEET EVENT FOR THOSE AREAS. THE VALLEYS HOWEVER REMAIN
PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOST VALLEYS...WHERE
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 40S AT THIS HOUR. THE AIR MASS IS STILL VERY
DRY IN THESE AREAS...SO WET BULB TEMPS ARE LOW...BUT ABOVE FREEZING.
IT/S TYPICALLY VERY DIFFICULT TO KEEP COLD AIR LOCKED IN TO THE
LITTLE TENN VALLEY...SO I JUST DON/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN A TRANSIENT
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP OCCURRING THERE...BUT I/M NOT READY TO GIVE
UP ON THE VALLEYS JUST YET. THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE MAINLY A
SLEET/SNOW SCENARIO...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS FEATURE ONLY THE SLIGHTEST
OF A WARM NOSE...WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL BE SATURATED THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. AS FAR AS ACCUMS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AREAS ABOVE ABOUT
3500 FEET WILL SEE A SOLID 2-4 INCHES...WHILE THE VALLEYS SHOULD SEE
HALF THAT (AT MOST).

PRECIP WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ALL BUT THE EXTREME EASTERN ZONES SEEING CLEARING
SKIES BY 18Z. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COOL THIS MORNING OWING TO PRECIP
AND CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL THEN WARM QUICKLY IN THE W/SW FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING MAXES TO WARM TO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUE...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
TONIGHT NIGHT...DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. PROG
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS DO SHOW STRONG UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE NRN
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. MODELS DO NOT
PRODUCE ANY QPF THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT. CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THRU WED MORNING. MODELS PRODUCE
APPARENT CONVECTION EARLY WED OVER TEXAS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH
CROSSING THE ROCKIES. POCKET OF UPPER MOISTURE MOVES FROM THERE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST BY WED AFTN AND THAT SHOULD BRING SOME CIRRUS
OVERHEAD...MAINLY OVER THE UPSTATE...ENOUGH SO THAT TEMPS SHOULD BE
KEPT UP A FEW DEGREES WED NIGHT COMPARED TO THE CLEARER NORTHERN
ZONES. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK THU BUT THEN BY AFTN
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF WARM FRONT.

WINDS ARE A MINOR CONCERN TONIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
PARTICULARLY FROM MOUNT MITCHELL NORTHWARD WHERE THE BDY LAYER SHOULD
REMAIN PARTIALLY MIXED. PEAKS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40-45 KT WITH AT LEAST A FEW GUSTS TO ABOUT 30 KT IN POPULATED
AREAS...AS WINDS OF THAT MAGNITUDE ARE JUST A THOUSAND FEET OR SO
OFF THE DECK. NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY...BUT WIND CHILLS
MAY DIP BELOW ZERO WITH THE GUSTS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...BUT AS SFC/UPPER RIDGING PUSH IN
FURTHER WED WINDS SHOULD RELAX AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS WILL RETURN
THEN. PARTIAL THICKNESSES INCREASE FROM WED TO THU AND GUIDANCE
FOLLOWS...WARMING HIGHS TO AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM EST TUESDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FIRST
TWO DAYS OF MEDIUM RANGE WHICH BEGINS WITH 00Z FRIDAY...THEN THE GFS
IS ON ITS OWN WITH A BIG FINAL LOW FOR THE LATER HALF OF WEEKEND.
AT 00Z FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
HAS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BOWING EAST ACROSS MISS VALLEY AND EASTERN
EDGE OF PRECIP GETS INTO THE NC MTNS THURSDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT WINTRY PRECIP WILL AFFECT THE NRN MTNS OF NC INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET AND MAINLY AFFECTING AVERY COUNTY.
THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MID MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
WARM A LITTLE IN THE MTNS. A WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF OUR
AREA IN THE CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT FRIDAY. HIGHS ONLY
AROUND 40 FOR STATESVILLE AREA AND MID 40S AROUND GSP ON FRIDAY. GFS
HAS CUT WAY BACK ON EXPECTED PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY AND NEW
ECMWF HAS NEAR A HALF INCH UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY LATE FRIDAY.

WEDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW MOVING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GULF STATES BRINGS HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ATL UP I-85 TO GSP AND
CLT AREA.  TIMING IS DIFFERENT AMONG MODELS WITH NEW ECMWF HAVING
BULK OF HEAVY RAIN COMING THROUGH AROUND 06Z SATURDAY AND GFS
WAITING UNTIL NEAR 12Z SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE FROM AN INCH TO
INCH AND A HALF IN SIX HOURS WILL FALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS ON ITS OWN WITH A NEW LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER
LOUISIANA MID DAY SATURDAY DROPPING WELL OVER AN INCH WIDESPREAD FOR
OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE THIS IS SUCH A BIG CONTRAST FROM
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND GFS IS THE ONLY ONE GOING THAT WAY...RATHER
HOLD OFF FOR FUTURE FORECAST RUNS. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DRIES OUR AREA
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE RETURNS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR FASHION AS THE PREVIOUS WITH LOW OVER PLAINS AND FRONT
COMING OUR WAY FROM WEST. MUCH LESS MOISTURE THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND COOLER MONDAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND ANOTHER WEDGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AS FRONTAL
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. GFS NOW HAS FRONT
CROSSING NC MTNS 12Z TUESDAY BUT ECMWF WAITS UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME ELEVATION DEPENDING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE VERY EARLY
MONDAY AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY ACCORDING TO SOUNDINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE TERMINALS...WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST TO KAVL BY
08-09Z...AND ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/FHILLS TERMINALS FROM AROUND
DAYBREAK THROUGH MID-MORNING. RAIN SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
VISBY/IFR CIGS...BUT FLT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SLEET/SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH THE RAIN BRIEFLY AT
KHKY AND ESPECIALLY KAVL...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND
WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AFTER AN HOUR OR TWO. SKIES WILL CLEAR
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT 5-8 KT OVERNIGHT (STRONGER AT KAVL)... TURNING TO THE SW AND
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT BY MID- AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE AREA...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST
TERMINALS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...LASTING UNTIL ABOUT LATE
MORNING

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE
RESTRICTIONS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED AND CONDUCIVE TO PERIODS OF RAIN/RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z
KCLT       HIGH  96%     MED   71%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  90%     MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   69%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   70%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  87%     MED   61%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  85%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...FUELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MOIST FROM RECENT RAINFALL. THIS
WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     GAZ010.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JDL
FIRE WEATHER...WIMBERLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
258 PM EST MON FEB 18 2013

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506>510-SCZ001>014-019-192000-
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
258 PM EST MON FEB 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-192000-
RABUN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
258 PM EST MON FEB 18 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM
EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.